We’re back after a huge showing finishing 17 for 24 on the 11 game slate! If you’re not following me on twitter (@xavierjwarner) please do so to stay up to date on days where I don’t write an article or for additional last minute picks being added to the slate. Our record, after an atrocious 2 for 17 day last Thursday, was at an all time low but we have bounced back and recorded solid days leading up to our big night last night. In the last 3 days we went 6 for 12, 14 for 25 and 3 for 6 to help us climb out of a tumultuous hole. The arrow is trending up and I’m focused on trying to keep this hot streak going for as long as possible. In my Pick History Report, I have combined my overall pick record with the number since I’ve been writing for TQE, so that there is some consistency when I post things on twitter in comparison to what is in the article. It lowers my average a little bit as I go from 38 for 69 which is sat me at 55% to 100 for 196 and currently puts me at 51%
The Player Props are taken from FanDuel and DraftKings. If you have any questions about the changing lines, please shoot me over some questions at @xavierjwarner on Twitter and I’ll be glad to help.
Pick History – 100 for 196 (51%)
Orlando Magic vs New York Knicks
The Knicks are going to be playing at an elevated level coming off of their first home win in their last 19 games at Madison Square Garden. The Magic have one of the best defensive units in all of basketball. This will be an interesting matchup and could end up coming down to the finish if the Knicks actually WANT to keep winning games.
Jonathan Isaac O 13.5 PTS -130
Jonathan Isaac has been playing inspired in his last eight games, where he has been more aggressive on the offensive side of the ball. Here are a few things he’s done recently for the Orlando Magic (over the last 8 games):
- 14 or more points in 6 games
- 2+ 3PT in 5 games
- 47.6% FG
- Averaging 29.3 MPG
His output has been a complimentary piece next to Vucevic. The Knicks are atrocious on the defensive side of the ball, they rank 25th in Scoring Defense (114.1 OPPG, according to TeamRankings.com), so this games bodes well for Isaac to eclipse our prop mark in this.
Nikola Vucevic O 33.5 PTS+REB -116
Vucevic and Jokic (hint: we will get to him later) have been my go-to prop options for some time now and they don’t let me down too often. Im dialing up Vucevic tonight in a matchup where he’s poised to be as dominant as he always is against New York. Vucevic does a great job against the Knicks and has crushed them in their last two meetings this season.
He’s finished with over 33.5 PTS+REB in the previous two meetings. Coming off of a rare win the Knicks should keep it close, that bodes well for Vucevic in an elite matchup and could balloon this number as the game comes down to the stretch.
Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors
Both of these teams play elite defense (Both Top 10 in NBA, according to TeamRankings.com) so this game could be more efficiency driven as opposed to volume driven, in terms of shot selection. I feel as though most players in this game will be held in check, except for Kyrie Irving and Kahwi Leonard.
Kawhi Leonard O 26.5 PTS -102
Kyrie Irving O 24.5 PTS -118
Kyrie Irving O 2.5 Threes +106
I foresee a big game from these two as they have some memorable history in the three matchups earlier this season . In the previous three meetings, Kyrie and Kahwi have been masterful at their efficiency and have pushed the envelope each and every time the Raptors and Celtics have faced off.
Let’s take a look at their previous matchups:
As you can see, both of these guys have seen a great deal of success all three times they have faced off this season. The most interesting concept is how Kawhi and Kyrie are so efficient against one another. Kawhi is shooting a robust 44.9% while Kyrie is shooting 44.6%. While their field goal percentage is impressive it comes at an elite usage rate (30.27% for Kyrie and 33.44% for Kawhi) which tells us they are consistently the conductors of their offense more than a quarter of the time. Lock both of these guys in for huge numbers tonight as they square off for a matchup in primetime on TNT.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets
Russell Westbrook O 23.5 PTS -112
Russell Westbrook O 1.5 Threes +112
Westbrook has scored over 40 points in his last three games while shooting 53.9% from the field. That’s absurd but Westbrook looks focused on helping Paul George with the scoring load a little more in the second half of the season.
- 41 PTS/10 REB/4 AST/50 FG%/41.6 3PT%
- 43 PTS/15 REB/8 AST/51.7 FG%/46.1 3PT%
- 44 PTS/14 REB/11 AST/60 FG%/33.3 3PT%
I love both of these props for obvious reasons articulated in Westbrook’s lines over the last three games. The idea of him scoring at least 24 points is interesting if you have watched him play of the last three games. Westbrook’s shot has improved while also still being one of the most aggressive and efficient attackers in the NBA. He’s hit multiple threes in each game over this stretch and the numbers say he is shooting more of them. In the last 3 games, he has attempted 37 three pointers and has drastically increased that number from the previous six games where he has attempted only 21 three pointers in total. Westbrook stays hot tonight and continues his scoring prowess against an inferior backcourt of Jamal Murray and Will Barton.
Nikola Jokic O 21.5 PTS -112
Nikola Jokic O 20.5 REB+AST -132
I mentioned Jokic earlier when breaking down the Orlando/New York game and the time is finally here to express my interest in Jokic today. Jokic, in their most recent matchup, was one rebound away from recording a triple double as he finished with 24 PTS/15 REB/9 AST while shooting 50% from the field. This game is a part of a very nice streak from Jokic, as since then (30 games) he has recorded 22+ PTS in 16 of those games and over 21+ REB+AST in 11 of those games. When Paul George and Russell Westbrook are in town, points are going to have to be scored. This is going to allow Jokic to be volume driven throughout the game and will lead to an increase in his scoring, rebound and assists outputs.