NBA Playoff Sunday | 05.05.19

NBA Playoff Sunday | 05.05.19

Injury News

Pascal Siakam is listed as doubtful for Game 4 with a bruised calf and I’m slightly suspect about it. The Raptors have been fairly solid all season long about their injury news however their opponents have not. It wouldn’t shock me here if the Raptors are giving the Sixers the Joel Embiid doubtful – GTD treatment but at the end of the day we should assume Siakam won’t play and build lines accordingly. Everyone should have a last second back-up “Siakam will play” plan B. No Siakam benefits Fred VanVleet, Norman Powell, and Serge Ibaka  from a minutes standpoint. Ibaka will likely start and is the direct beneficiary of Siakam’s absence however I expect Toronto to go small A LOT of the game with two PG sets or Powell at the 3 with Kawhi at the 4. Marc Gasol saw a 4.44% usage bump and a .08 FD and .12 DK fantasy point per minute increase with Siakam OFF the floor during the regular season. Kawhi Leonard saw a .12 FD and DK fantasy point per minute increase with a 3.83% usage bump. Expect both to see their usage go up with Gasol being the biggest benefactor.

UPDATE: SIAKAM PLAYING

FD Core: Jokic, McCollum, Kawhi, Barton

DK Core: Jokic, Kawhi, Barton, Simmons (GPP)/ Butler (cash)

FanDuel Core

Kawhi Leonard ($9900)

It’s tough for me to fade Kawhi tonight on FD with SF basically him and a bunch of cheap fliers. Kawhi sees the production bump if Siakam can’t go and is priced well at under $10k. Plug and play.

Norman Powell ($3600) + Fred VanVleet ($3700)

This is my FD double-punt drop the lower score special today and it’s a pretty damn good one. This strategy is ONLY viable if Siakam doesn’t play but as mentioned above, listed as doubtful, it’s  hard not to build lines expecting Siakam to play. This combo offers upside, cap relief, and safety as one will for sure see extended minutes if Siakam can’t go. A lot of people will chase the Will Barton performance from last game (and for good reason) but that extra $1k savings and ownership pivot is appealing to me. We’ve seen Barton flop after a huge game many times and overall during the playoffs he’s been wildly inefficient.

CJ McCollum ($7500)

With Jimmy Butler’s price spike and the expectation that Kawhi sticks on him more – CJ is my favorite SG to spend up on today. I think McCollum builds off of his Game 3 performance and continues to see elite usage as Denver is basically face guarding Dame at half-court.

Center!

Center is absolutely brutal on FD as we have Marc Gasol with an elite price and metric bump if Siakam can’t go and the two studs in Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic. Gasol’s $5600 is great and going to him opens up your entire lineup. If you’re not going with one of the studs Gasol is the center I want. Embiid vs Jokic is brutal but FD has kept Jokic’s price down at $10600 and spiked Embiid’s price to $11500. Embiid is the GPP pivot but it’s hard to justify going Embiid over Jokic at $900 cheaper unless strictly trying to differentiate. You should have one of these three centers as I think Kanter and his bad shoulder are most affected by the quadruple overtime game.

FanDuel Values

PG

Fred VanVleet ($3700)

FVV will see a minutes bump if Siakam can’t go. He’d be elite value.

SG

Torrey Craig ($3600)

With Harris at $5k and Beasley at $4400 I sort of like going with Craig priced down. If cap doesn’t matter I’d rank it Harris, Beasley, Craig but the Craig intrigue stems from the down price. The minutes will be there and if the ball bounces his way he can get to 20-23.

SF

Will Barton ($4600)

Barton sees his price jump after his monster Game 3 and expect him to be heavily owned. He’s an elite target but I don’t view him as a complete lock as he’s struggled throughout the playoffs and Will Barton is on JR Smith’s level of safety. If he comes out missing his wild shots don’t be shocked if Malone pulls him.

Norman Powell ($3600)

Powell will see a minutes bump if Siakam can’t go.

PF

Zach Collins ($4100)

Collins was productive in Game 3 and I expect him to potentially see slightly more minutes in Game 4 as I’m sure Kanter’s shoulder is killing him. Kanter is clearly injured and productively toughening it out but coming off of a 4OT game we could see Stotts go to Collins slightly more if Kanter’s shoulder is effecting his play.

C

Greg Monroe ($3600)

I wouldn’t recommend punting at center but if that’s the route you’re going Monroe is who I’d go with. He can get you 16-20 in his 10-14 minutes.

DraftKings Core

Kawhi Leonard ($9100)

Kawhi is slightly easier to fade on DK because of positional flexibility however at the end of the day he’s priced around his floor and sees a metric bump if Siakam can’t go. He’s an elite target.

Marc Gasol ($4800)

Because DK allows us to play two centers I’m locking in Gasol at $4800. Gasol’s 4.44% usage bump during the regular season without Siakam will likely be around a 10% bump today with his minutes locked in at 30+ (barring foul trouble). It’s a very small sample size but throughout the playoffs Gasol has seen a .29 FD and .21 DK fantasy point per minute increase with a 6.44% usage bump with Siakam OFF the court. He’s an elite value at $4800.

Serge Ibaka ($3600) or Fred VanVleet ($3500)

At his DK price Ibaka is elite value if Siakam is scratched and will be heavily owned. No Siakam means one of these two will have a big game, Ibaka will be higher owned and is a safer path to 20 DK points. I have no issues playing both in the same line.

Will Barton ($4000) OR Norman Powell ($2700)

I know, I know, I sort of dragged Will Barton a bit going over my FD favorites however on DK with positional flexibility and a great price going with Barton and the Toronto values really opens up your line. There will be minutes for Barton and his activity on the glass gives him a decent enough floor. Going with this core gives you an average of $7125 per position to work with allowing you to go balanced the rest of the way or fit both Jokic and Dame. Going Powell over Barton gives you $7450 to work with per position but also makes you very Toronto heavy. Powell is only usable if Siakam doesn’t play.

DraftKings Values

PG/SG

Fred VanVleet ($3500)

See above.

Malik Beasley ($3800)

Beasley remains a DK sub $4k special with the 3PT bonus. He won’t explode for 30+ but he’s fairly safe value.

SG/SF

Will Barton ($4000)

See above.

Rodney Hood ($3900)

Hood has played really well this series and remains priced well. Expect him to carry some ownership and I wouldn’t be shocked if he saw extended minutes today.

Norman Powell ($2700)

That is a lovely price for Norman Powell if Siakam can’t play as he’ll likely be in the 20ish minute range. Hard to ignore usable sub $3k punts.

SF/PF

Mo Harkless ($4600)

Harkless’ ankle might be a little sore after last game but we still get him at a good price. He’s been the more productive per minute producer over Al-Farouq Aminu throughout the postseason and for that reason I prefer him at $200 more.

James Ennis ($3400)

With everyone talking about Toronto and Portland value on the wing James Ennis will be the forgotten man. $3400 is still a good price for him and he carries 25ish DK point upside. Expect him to be in the 20-24 minute range with the possibility of seeing extended run if Toronto goes super small.

PF/C

Zach Collins ($3100)

This is a really solid price for Zach Collins as he’s been productive with his usual minutes and has the possibility of seeing extended run today. It’s me sort of guessing but again, Kanter’s shoulder is likely bothering him even more today, if it starts effecting his play Stotts will go to Collins.

Marc Gasol ($4800)

Gasol might be my favorite value on DK if Siakam can’t go. Such a good price as it offers a safe floor and elite upside.

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