NBA Player Props 3/13

NBA Player Props 3/13

The Player Props are taken from FanDuel and DraftKings. If you have any questions about the changing lines, please shoot me over some questions at @xavierjwarner on Twitter and I’ll be glad to help.

Pick History – 204 for 394 (51.7%)

Brooklyn Nets vs Oklahoma City Thunder

D’Angelo Russell O 20.5 PTS -110

DLO is back in the fold for me tonight with a nice six game slate on the docket. He hasn’t been as “good” as he’s been when we were riding the DLO wave a couple weeks back. A matchup with OKC that could help either team solidify their respective playoff positions is an opportunity I can get behind. Russell is a primary scoring guard and OKC isn’t trustworthy at defending that type of player as they are ranked 26th in the NBA in Advanced DvP against scorers. I’m buying this opportunity for a bounce back game for Russell.

Spencer Dinwiddie O 16.5 PTS -112

Spencer has been fully entrenched back into his role since returning from injury. The magic number for him is 17 tonight, which coincidentally was the same number set for him on Monday Night. He finished with 19 points on only 11 shots in that game while in the previous 2 games he has taken 14 shots and 21 shots respectively. As long as he gets over 11 shots he should be fine to reach this mark. He continues to play regular minutes with plenty opportunities to put the ball in the basket. 16.5 seems really low for me, especially in a matchup with an OKC team with an imposing G/F combo in George and Westbrook on the offensive end.

Russell Westbrook O 31.5 PTS+AST -110

Russ Westbrook has taken the helm from Paul George since returning from injury last week and to keep it all rolling everything needs to be clicking. Westbrook dominated his previous meeting against Brooklyn as the Nets rank 25th against Superstar players this season and their slightly better defensive output against PGs (ranked 21st). Westbrook has all the arrows poinedt up for him in this game and I’m pretty confident he can get over the target number of 32 PTS+AST in this one.

Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards

Bradley Beal O 40.5 PTS+REB+AST -110

Bradley is back. I talk about Bradley a lot. Bradley is one of my favorite plays. He’s been great since John Wall went out… blah blah blah! Play Beal tonight. He has been great lately where he has finished over the targeted threshold of 41 PTS+REB+AST in six of his last nine outings.

Tomas Satoransky O 18.5 PTS+AST -118

Outside of the prop world, I love Satornasky’s game and he fits so well next to Beal and his play style. Beal, being a score-first guard benefits from the old school pass-first PG in Tomas. Tomas is always looking to get the ball up in transition and find the open man spotting up for three consistently. In his last nine games he has totaled at least 19 PTS+AST in five of those games and has gotten at least 12 PTS in six of nine games as well. Although Orlando is a defense that does a great job at limiting opponents points per game (106.8, 5th in NBA) and opponents assists per game (23.1, 5th in NBA), I think Tomas steps up here at a number that seems a bit low to me.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Atlanta Hawks

Trae Young O 20.5 PTS -122

At first, this line is criminally low for Trae but when facing the NBA’s leading team in opponents points per games (103.7) it seems right on point. Although, I’m buying the recency bias on Trae and how effective he has been on the offensive end as the Hawks continue to get behind him and his offensive prowess. In seven of his previous nine games, he has hit at least 21 PTS while shooting 43% from the field in those games. In his initial matchup with Memphis he finished with 20 points, which isn’t over our target but also occurred in October. I am under the belief that Trae has gotten much better since that point. Expect to see an increase in points for him in this one regardless of the Grizzlies elite defense. Tread Carefully!

John Collins O 11.5 REB+AST -120

John Collins is one of my new favorite players in the league because of his ability to score the basketball and rebound at a highly efficient rate at such a young age. Collins is averaging 9.8 REB and 1.9 AST this season but has been very good in his last three games. He has hit the above threshold in two of the three games while accumulating 12, 21 and 10 REB+AST respectively in those games. The great thing about this matchup is Collins did not play against Memphis the last time they faced off. Collins classifies as a hybrid athletic/stretch 4 for me in today’s NBA. While the Grizzlies defensive prowess holds true against athletic power forwards (where they are ranked 1st in DvP), the same cannot be said for the defense against stretch power forwards (their ranking drops to 28th in DvP). He will have opportunities to be aggressive on the offensive and defensive boards with potential for long offensive rebounds from shot takers like Trae Young. To add some context to my choice here, Memphis is ranked 14th in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game this season as well (53.2 per game).He should be able to surprise the Grizzlies with his above average athleticism while crashing to the glass. The Grizzlies

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets

Eric Gordon O 3.5 Threes +108

EG is eight for nine in games trying to get over the 3.5 3PT FG made mark that we have here. I don’t have much context for this one other than he has the green light every time he steps on the court. Playing on a team with Chris Paul, Clint Capela and James Harden allows him to take open jump shots and with his 37.2% 3PT% there’s a lot to like for Gordon in this one. Golden State and Houston both surrender at least 110 OPPG this season (112.3 and 110.2 respectively), which bodes well for both teams offenses in this game.

Steph Curry U 5.5 Threes -158

So, you all know that Steph is the greatest shooter of the basketball in NBA history but he has not hit over five threes in eight straight games! That seems crazy to think about, but to hit six threes in a game, you have to be feeling it on a whole other level. Nine games ago, Steph hit 10 threes against the Sacramento Kings in a moment where he was absolutely on fire from the very beginning. This game is going to put an emphasis on both teams scoring points but with KD out I don’t understand a scenario where Houston doesn’t attempt to make life very difficult for him. For context, in the previous two matchups against Houston this year, Steph has knocked down five threes in both meetings.