This is potentially the worst slate of the year, as it features two likely blowouts and a Rockets-Jazz matchup that isn’t particularly exciting. If you’re looking to take a day off from NBA DFS, this is a good night to do so. And just a heads up: With the ugly slate tonight I thought I’d try a different format for my article.
Hope you enjoy it!
New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics (o/u 217.5, BOS -12)
New York is 27th in defensive rating, 16th in pace.
Boston is 2nd in defensive rating, 22nd in pace.
This is a brutal matchup for the Knicks, as they’ll face one of the strongest defensive teams in the league.¬† Plus, Dave Fizdale’s willingness to switch up the rotations mid-game makes targeting any player on the roster a real risk.¬†Still, at the moment, the Knicks continue to be a decent source of value.
INJURIES: Trey Burke, Lance Thomas OUT
TOP TARGETS: Noah Vonleh, Emmanuel Mudiay
Since Vonleh’s monster run of production, he has seen his numbers drop a bit. But the minutes continue to be there for Vonleh, so his down price offers upside. With Trey Burke OUT, Mudiay should see around 35 minutes again, and on a small slate I don’t really care who the matchup is against.
GPP: Enes Kanter, Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson
Robinson and Knox are blowout proof. The minutes will be there for both of them regardless of the score. Even though the minutes aren’t always there, Kanter carries big GPP upside. Whether it’s Horford or Baynes on him, Kanter should be able to score and grab boards.
FADE: Tim Hardaway Jr, Damyean Dotson, Allonzo Trier, Courtney Lee
Hardaway Jr is affected if there’s a blowout, so he’s not worth the risk at his price. Lee’s emergence seems to have directly impacted Trier, so I’m off of both. I’m a fan of Dotson, but he’s just a bit too pricey for me to trust vs a stout defense like the Celtics.
This is a solid matchup for the Celtics, as they get a Knicks team who would struggle to defend me. With this game being played in Boston, there is the blowout concern to consider.
TOP TARGETS: Jayson Tatum
I just like Tatum in this spot, as he should be able to score at will vs the Knicks. Typically studs defer to the younger studs when facing a bad team, and this game has that sort of potential. PF is fairly brutal tonight, so Tatum is in a good spot.
GPP: Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier
First, Kyrie is always worth considering. If this game stays close, Kyrie has awesome upside and is a borderline top target. Hayward is coming off his best game of the year, and while you shouldn’t expect that sort of production again, this one is a nice spot for him. Gordon has also seen some blowout minutes this year, as Stevens continues to “rehab” him his own way. Rozier is only in play if you think this game gets out of hand. He won’t kill you at his price, making him a solid FD “free” punt.
FADES: Al Horford, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Marcus Morris
With the Celtics looking healthy again I’m not particularly interested in these guys, because they all eat into each other’s production, even on a small slate.