NBA Morning Thoughts 12.04.18

NBA Morning Thoughts 12.04.18

Here we have a small, five-game slate, highlighted by an injury-bitten Suns vs. Kings game. Ahh the beauty of NBA DFS! I’m generally way too excited to watch a Suns-Kings game that won’t include Devin Booker, and potentially TJ Warren. Let’s get right to it…

Chicago Bulls @ Indiana Pacers (o/u 208.5, IND -8)

Chicago is 22nd in defensive rating, 17th in pace.

Indiana is 4th in defensive rating, 27th in pace.

The Bulls will be a bit of a mystery tonight, as Fred Hoiberg was the first coaching casualty of the year on Monday. Historically speaking, teams tend to play with a bit more energy during the first game with a new coach. Still, this is not an ideal matchup for Chicago. Even with Victor Oladipo sidelined, Indiana is a strong defensive team that plays at a purposefully slow pace.

Even with Lauri Markkanen back, I don’t mind targeting Zach LaVine here. LaVine’s high floor carries some intrigue on a small slate with not a whole lot to pay up for.

Priced at $6200 on FD and $5400 on DK, Lauri Markkanen is an interesting GPP risk. His 25 minutes in his first game back were promising, and he’s underpriced if he plays around 30 minutes.

Wendell Carter Jr is someone who I think will benefit with Hoiberg gone. as I’d expect new head coach Jim Boylen to consistently play Carter in the 30-minute range. Plus, Markkanen is a really nice fit next to Carter, who is a gifted passer. Carter is too cheap on DK, priced at $4800, and priced appropriately on FD at $5800.

The Bulls have been a team to attack in NBA DFS this year, and I don’t really expect that to change under Boylen. The Pacers are a tricky team to target, as none of their players play huge minutes.

The Bulls struggle defending long-range shooting, giving up around 12.2 threes per game, ranking 28th in the NBA. This puts Bojan Bogdanovic on the radar tonight. He’s not easy to trust, but this is a nice spot for him.

Besides a dud vs the Lakers, Myles Turner has produced fairly well since Oladipo went down. There is always risk with Turner, especially at his increased price tag, but he offers elite upside vs a Bulls team that struggles to defend centers.

I’d love to target Domantas Sabonis, but his price is a bit much. Sabonis deserves to be playing around 30 minutes a night, yet he’s in the low 20’s.

Even at his elevated price tag, Darren Collison is fine to target on a small slate. Collison is a steals machine and the Bulls rank 21st in the NBA at taking care of the ball.

Thaddeus Young and Tyreke Evans are what they are. Strictly target them if you’re playing 15+ GPP lineups.

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