NBA Morning Thoughts 11.29.18

NBA Morning Thoughts 11.29.18

After last night, when Devin Booker almost went for the NBA DFS injury cycle in 25 minutes and Tim Frazier exacted his revenge on the Wizards, we are back today with a small, somewhat-interesting, three-game slate. Luckily, Otto Porter is not featured tonight. Let’s get right to it…

Golden State Warriors @ Toronto Raptors (o/u 224.5, TOR -8)

Golden State is 17th in defensive rating, 15th in pace.

Toronto is 7th in defensive rating, 12th in pace.

The Warriors head to Toronto and continue to deal with the absences of Steph Curry and Draymond Green. This is a decent spot for the Raptors, as the Warriors have really struggled defensively with Draymond out. Curry’s absence has also hurt the Warriors on the defensive side of the ball, as opposing bigs are not being exposed on the perimeter as they usually are vs a healthy Warriors team.

TOP TARGETS

Kevin Durant (FD $11500, DK $11000)

It’s never ideal when up against Kawhi Leonard for long stretches of the game, but with Draymond and Steph out, Durant is always on the radar. In the 10 games Curry has been out, Durant is second in the NBA in usage percentage, at 36.9%.

Klay Thompson (FD $7000, DK $7400)

I sort of hate Klay at his DK price, but the fact remains with Draymond and Curry out, Klay is an appealing target. In the 10 games Curry has been out, Klay is surprisingly 11th in the NBA in usage at 31.3%. Kawhi on Durant could even lead to a slight usage bump for Klay in this one.

Quinn Cook (FD $5600, DK $4800)

I’m surprised I’m high on this many Warriors, too. Cook has been fairly consistent with Draymond and Steph OUT, and he’s a touch underpriced on DK. On a small slate, Cook provides safe cap relief.

Kawhi Leonard (FD $10000, DK $9300)

The Warriors have become a team you can attack in DFS. Kawhi isn’t cheap, but this is a good spot for him.

ON THE RADAR

Pascal Siakam + Serge Ibaka

I’ve lumped the two together as they play the same position at similar price points. I’m not sure if I’d recommend targeting both in the same lineup, but I’m ok with targeting either. I slightly prefer Ibaka because of his cheaper price tag.

Fred VanVleet (FD $4700, DK $4600)

VanVleet is similar to Cook but plays less minutes. He provides cap relief on a small slate with a decent matchup.

Jonas Valanciunas (FD $5600, DK $5000)

No Curry allows Jonas to potentially see a few added minutes. The Warriors don’t have the interior presence to stop Jonas. Even in limited minutes, he offers elite GPP upside.

FADES

Kyle Lowry (FD $8000, DK $8000)

He’s too expensive for me based off of his recent production with Kawhi in the lineup. I’d rather spend elsewhere.

Draymond Green Replacements (Jerebko, Jones, Looney, Bell)

They all split time and none are worth the risk.

Indiana Pacers @ Los Angeles Lakers (o/u 215.5, LAL -4.5)

Indiana is 4th in defensive rating, 27th in pace.

Los Angeles is 14th in defensive rating, 5th in pace.

Indiana will likely be without Victor Oladipo again, and they face an improving Lakers defense who happen to provide a pace-up spot for Pacer players. The Lakers, on the other hand, see a pace-down game vs a really good defensive team. Lonzo Ball is QUESTIONABLE.

Top Targets

Domantas Sabonis (FD $7500, DK $7500)

Sabonis has smashed since Dipo went out, improving his scoring, rebounding, and assists totals. The issue with Sabonis is his minutes, and that is concerning at his elevated price. Still, Sabonis is in a strong spot in a pace-up environment with increased usage. His high floor carries appeal on a small slate.

Darren Collison (DK ONLY $4700)

On DK, Collison remains very cheap with an elite matchup. He helps fit stars around your lineup. Collison is only on the radar priced at $6300 on FD.

Brandon Ingram (FD $6300, DK $5800) – ONLY IF LONZO BALL IS OUT

Ingram would become the Lakers de facto point guard, which is a spot he THRIVED in during the preseason. Yes, it’s a brutal matchup and LeBron will also be running point, but Ingram is too cheap with the amount of expected touches he would get.

ON THE RADAR

LeBron James (FD $11400, DK $10700)

It’s insane to me that LeBron isn’t a top target on a three-game slate, but his recent production, price, matchup, and positional strength warrant it. In the past, on a three-game slate, you would just lock in LeBron’s 50 point floor. But that floor is now in the high 30’s/low 40’s. That’s not worth it at his price. Now, LeBron isn’t a total fade because he’s LeBron James. If playing multiple lineups, I would want some exposure to him.

JaVale McGee (FD $6200, DK $5100)

Yes, the minutes in his last game carry some concern, but McGee is priced down, which carries elite upside on a small slate.

Myles Turner (FD $7200, DK $6200)

Trust me, I don’t want to pay that price for Turner and his inconsistent production either. But with Oladipo out, Turner has stepped up on the offensive end. The Lakers provide an elite matchup for Turner. His elevated price keeps him off the top targets list.

Kyle Kuzma and Thad Young

They’re fine. I’m just not actively looking to target them. I prefer Kuzma over Young if Ball is out, and Young if Ball plays.

FADES

Cory Joseph, Aaron Holiday, Tyreke Evans

They’re all cheap so I don’t hate targeting them, but none have really been worth the risk.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings (o/u 235, LAC -3)

Los Angeles is 8th in defensive rating, 8th in pace.

Sacramento is 20th in defensive rating, 2nd in pace.

The Clippers are on a second night of a back-to-back in a pace-up spot vs the Kings. The Clippers also play at an appealing pace, so I’d expect this game to feature lots of offense. It’s a good matchup for both of these teams.

TOP TARGETS

Boban Marjanovic (FD $4700, DK $3500) – ONLY IF GORTAT OUT

This one is pretty straightforward. FREE BOBAN!

Montrezl Harrell and Tobias Harris

Like Ibaka and Siakam, Harrell and Harris are lumped together because they are priced similarly and play the same position. Both are pricey, but carry high floors with some upside. Harrell at $7600 on DK is appealing vs a Kings team that will take and miss a lot of shots.

Avery Bradley (FD $3700, DK $3900)

Bradley is listed here because of his price, minutes, and matchup. On a small slate, anyone playing 30+ minutes with a good matchup at under $4k should be strongly considered. Bradley provides cap relief and upside.

De’Aaron Fox (FD $7600, DK $7200)

I love De’Aaron Fox tonight. Both teams play fast so this is a suitable game environment for him. And the Clippers have given up some big games to opposing PGs.

Marvin Bagley (FD $6700, DK $5100)

Bagley is finally getting big minutes and the production has followed. The Clippers have been exposed by centers all year, and the pace and matchup put Bagley firmly in play.

ON THE RADAR

Lou Williams (FD $6200, DK $5600)

Sweet Lou is always on the radar in a pace-up spot, especially on a small slate.

Danilo Gallinari (FD $7000, DK $6500)

I don’t love him at his price, but the matchup offers a safe floor with some upside. Gallo has appeal in GPPs, as I don’t think he will be a popular target at all with three $10k+ stud SFs on the slate.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (FD $5600, DK $4900)

Shai is cheap with a really strong matchup. I like to attack the Kings at PG, as their pace is beneficial towards a PG’s production. He offers cap relief and upside on a small slate.

Kings SGs – Hield, Bogdanovic, and Shumpert

All three cut into each other’s production, so I don’t particularly like any of them. That being said, on a small slate in a +matchup all three are worth considering. I’m most interested in Shumpert as a GPP punt.

FADES

Willie Cauley-Stein (FD $6800, DK $5900)

It seems like Bagley is slowly starting to take over Cauley-Stein’s minutes. Stein is tricky for me because I do understand the appeal vs a Clippers team that play poorly vs centers. Still, I don’t think he’s worth the risk at his price, as his minutes trend is alarming.

Good luck tonight! Remember to join us in our discord chat throughout the day to talk lineups and analysis of any news that breaks throughout the day!

 

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