NBA Morning Thoughts 11.29.18

NBA Morning Thoughts 11.29.18

After last night, when Devin Booker almost went for the NBA DFS injury cycle in 25 minutes and Tim Frazier exacted his revenge on the Wizards, we are back today with a small, somewhat-interesting, three-game slate. Luckily, Otto Porter is not featured tonight. Let’s get right to it…

Golden State Warriors @ Toronto Raptors (o/u 224.5, TOR -8)

Golden State is 17th in defensive rating, 15th in pace.

Toronto is 7th in defensive rating, 12th in pace.

The Warriors head to Toronto and continue to deal with the absences of Steph Curry and Draymond Green. This is a decent spot for the Raptors, as the Warriors have really struggled defensively with Draymond out. Curry’s absence has also hurt the Warriors on the defensive side of the ball, as opposing bigs are not being exposed on the perimeter as they usually are vs a healthy Warriors team.

TOP TARGETS

Kevin Durant (FD $11500, DK $11000)

It’s never ideal when up against Kawhi Leonard for long stretches of the game, but with Draymond and Steph out, Durant is always on the radar. In the 10 games Curry has been out, Durant is second in the NBA in usage percentage, at 36.9%.

Klay Thompson (FD $7000, DK $7400)

I sort of hate Klay at his DK price, but the fact remains with Draymond and Curry out, Klay is an appealing target. In the 10 games Curry has been out, Klay is surprisingly 11th in the NBA in usage at 31.3%. Kawhi on Durant could even lead to a slight usage bump for Klay in this one.

Quinn Cook (FD $5600, DK $4800)

I’m surprised I’m high on this many Warriors, too. Cook has been fairly consistent with Draymond and Steph OUT, and he’s a touch underpriced on DK. On a small slate, Cook provides safe cap relief.

Kawhi Leonard (FD $10000, DK $9300)

The Warriors have become a team you can attack in DFS. Kawhi isn’t cheap, but this is a good spot for him.

ON THE RADAR

Pascal Siakam + Serge Ibaka

I’ve lumped the two together as they play the same position at similar price points. I’m not sure if I’d recommend targeting both in the same lineup, but I’m ok with targeting either. I slightly prefer Ibaka because of his cheaper price tag.

Fred VanVleet (FD $4700, DK $4600)

VanVleet is similar to Cook but plays less minutes. He provides cap relief on a small slate with a decent matchup.

Jonas Valanciunas (FD $5600, DK $5000)

No Curry allows Jonas to potentially see a few added minutes. The Warriors don’t have the interior presence to stop Jonas. Even in limited minutes, he offers elite GPP upside.

FADES

Kyle Lowry (FD $8000, DK $8000)

He’s too expensive for me based off of his recent production with Kawhi in the lineup. I’d rather spend elsewhere.

Draymond Green Replacements (Jerebko, Jones, Looney, Bell)

They all split time and none are worth the risk.

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