NBA Morning Thoughts 11.27.18

NBA Morning Thoughts 11.27.18

This is not the most appealing five-game NBA DFS slate, but it’s a slate nonetheless! Let’s get to it…

New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons (o/u 220.5, DET -7)

New York is 26th in defensive rating, 19th in pace.

Detroit is 12th in defensive rating, 21st in pace.

The Knicks “values” of last week have finally seen a price increase, especially on FD. This matchup looks far more appealing from a DvP standpoint, as Detroit ranks in the bottom half at every position. Still, Detroit is a decent defensive team and the Knicks rotation is always a bit complicated.

At $6100 and $5700 on FD, Trey Burke and Emmanuel Mudiay have about priced themselves out for me. On DK, priced at $4700 and $4500, both are still in play. And I prefer Burke over Mudiay.

With Enes Kanter seemingly back to earning starters minutes, he becomes one of the top options at center on any given slate. The $7600 on FD and $6800 on DK is still a fairly affordable price for 30+ minutes of Kanter. As good of a rebounder as Andre Drummond is, he’s a poor low post defender. So Kanter is in line for another big double-double, as the Pistons rank 27th in true shooting percentage.

Noah Vonleh also saw an appropriate price increase, and is no longer the plug and play he was last week. I don’t think his $6700 FD price is too high, I just don’t particularly love it vs Detroit. His $5600 price on DK is more reasonable.

This is a strong matchup for the Pistons, as the Knicks are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. The Knicks don’t typically get blown out, which means we should see strong minutes for all Detroit regulars.

Similarly to the Pistons, the Knicks are an inefficient basketball team, ranked 28th in the NBA in true shooting percentage. There’s a rebound for every single Knicks miss and Andre Drummond is usually the guy to get them. He’s pricey, but this is an elite spot for Drummond.

The Knicks lackluster defense will also benefit Blake Griffin, as his 50+ point upside at a sub-$10k price tag offers lots of appeal. For tonight’s slate I think it’s important having at least Drummond or Blake. I’d assume most will go Blake and Kanter at center. That decision might be chalky, but it’s hard to argue with that.

I don’t trust him for a second, but Reggie Jackson has quietly played 35+ minutes in back-to-back games. There’s big upside at his price if those minutes continue. I’ve been crushed by Jackson many times so I’m expecting the worst, but Jackson is a strong GPP target tonight.

With Reggie Bullock in the $5k range on FD, he’s no longer an appealing value. But his $4100 on DK is ok. I don’t have any interest in other Pistons values.