NBA Morning Thoughts 03.13.19

NBA Morning Thoughts 03.13.19

We have a mediocre six-game NBA DFS slate featuring a ton of studs and highlighted by a Rockets-Warriors matchup. Here is my breakdown of the games…Brooklyn Nets @ Oklahoma City Thunder (o/u 230.5, OKC -7)Brooklyn is 13th in defensive rating, 12th in pace.Oklahoma City is 4th in defensive rating, 3rd in pace.NetsInjuries: DeMarre Carroll OUT, Treveon Graham OUTTop Targets: D’Angelo Russell (GPP), Spencer Dinwiddie (GPP), Rodion KurucsSecondary Targets: Allen Crabbe, Joe HarrisThe Thunder provide a stout defense but elite pace in this matchup and expect a lot of points to be scored. At first glance, some people might worry about a potential blowout, but the Nets are a team that RARELY gets blown out. I fully expect this game to stay close. As always, the trouble with targeting the Nets is their rotation making it impossible to trust D’Angelo Russell and Spencer Dinwiddie in cash games. Still, both, but especially Russell, carry elite upside in an up-tempo game environment as the Thunder rank 24th in Advanced DvP against opposing scorers.With Carroll and Graham out, Rodion Kurucs is locked into minutes and is a decent value priced at $4600 on FD and DK. Don’t let Kurucs “down” minutes last game fool you as Kurucs and the starters sat the entire fourth quarter up 30 against the Pistons. Kurucs doesn’t carry a ton of upside but he’s a fairly safe sub $5k target. Allen Crabbe and Joe Harris are potentially cheap secondary beneficiaries of Carroll being out. Even just one less player in the Nets rotation typically means good things. The Thunder rank 20th in Advanced DvP against shooters so it’s an above average matchup for both. They are cheap ways of getting exposure to this game environment.

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