NBA Morning Thoughts 03.11.19

NBA Morning Thoughts 03.11.19

We start the week off with a loaded six-game NBA DFS slate, let’s get right to it…Tools UsedBack to BackAdvanced DvPPlayer Impact – IndividualPlayer vs TeamToronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers (o/u 222, TOR -10.5)Toronto is 7th in defensive rating, 15th in pace.Cleveland is 30th in defensive rating, 29th in pace.We kick off the NBA slate with by far the least appealing matchup of the night as the Toronto Raptors head to Cleveland to face the lowly Cavs. While I expect Kawhi Leonard to play, we’ve seen him rest back to back games before. If Kawhi plays, I have zero interest in targeting Raptors players as they all eat into each other’s production and there is some serious blowout risk here. I’ve heard no reports of this but it wouldn’t shock me to see other Raptors not named Kawhi potentially rest either.Of course, if Kawhi is ultimately rested again, this would be an elite spot for both Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam. On FD, Lowry is getting up there in price at $8500 so while I’d consider him elite, I wouldn’t consider him a must.The Cavs will be without Matthew Dellavedova, Larry Nance Jr., and Tristan Thompson opening up some potential value. Still, this game has tons of blowout risk and attacking the Raptors isn’t particularly the best strategy. I’m not against just completely ignoring this game.With Dellavedova out, expect to see more minutes for Brandon Knight and Colin Sexton. Knight is a usable minimum priced punt as he played 25 minutes last game without Delly and actually looked alive on the court for once. Sexton’s appeal is that he’ll play 34+ minutes priced at $5400 on FD and $4700 on DK. There’s strong upside at both of those prices and while Sexton has only played 86.1 minutes WITH Dellavedova on the court, he has seen a 4% usage bump with him OFF the court.I get that the Raptors struggle vs bigs and that Kevin Love will likely touch the ball on every possession it’s just hard for me to pay up for him on either site with the possibility of this game being over before halftime. He’s a GPP only target.

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