NBA Morning Thoughts 02.05.19

NBA Morning Thoughts 02.05.19

We’ve got an eight-game NBA DFS slate on our hands, so let’s get right to it…

Los Angeles Clippers @ Charlotte Hornets (o/u 226, CHA -3.5)
Los Angeles is 19th in defensive rating, 9th in pace.

Charlotte is 21st in defensive rating, 20th in pace.

This is an appealing spot for both teams, as the Clippers bring pace while both teams bring below average defense. The argument can be made that this is a pace-down game for Clippers players, but even on the road I expect them to push the pace of this game. While there should be plenty of points scored in this game there really isn’t a single Clipper players I’m forcing into my lineups. Danilo Gallinari remains out.

It appears Boban Marjaonovic is back in the Clippers rotation. Boban has played 13, 16, and 16 minutes in three straight games off the bench, and has been his usual productive self. Boban is a usable cheap center priced at $4100 on FD and $3500 on DK. We know he’s productive whenever he gets  minutes, so he’s decent value as long as he remains in the rotation.

Strictly on DK, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a strong value PG worth considering. Shai is priced at $4400 and has 35+ DK points in each of his last two games. With Gallinari out the Clippers continue to use three-guard sets, so the minutes will continue to be there for Shai.

Lou Williams continues his elite production off the bench, and this is a good spot for him. Before Sunday’s blowout against the Raptors, Lou was over 30+ minutes in three straight games, going over 40+ fantasy points in all three. Those type of minutes are huge for Lou and in a matchup vs Charlotte if he’s in that 30 minute range I’d expect around 40+ fantasy points. The $7700 on FD and $7200 on DK aren’t cheap but they are fair.

While I’m not against them in GPP’s it’s tough for me to pay up for Tobias Harris and Montrezl Harrell tonight. Harris has been consistently producing around 30 fantasy points per game which isn’t enough at his $7200 FD and $6600 DK price. His ceiling just hasn’t been there. Tobias has just been inconsistent, and while I like the matchup, I’d rather spend up elsewhere. To me it seems Tobias has been most affected by Lou Williams playing more minutes.