NBA Morning Thoughts 01.30.19

NBA Morning Thoughts 01.30.19

We have a fun eight-game NBA DFS slate, highlighted by the luxury that is Kings vs Hawks basketball. Let’s get right to it…

Dallas Mavericks @ New York Knicks (o/u 217, DAL -6)
Dallas is 14th in defensive rating, 16th in pace.

New York is 28th in defensive rating, 13th in pace.

The Mavs head to the Mecca to face a banged-up Knicks team that continues to regress defensively while increasing their overall pace. This is an elite spot for Mavericks players, and I expect this game to remain close throughout.

It’s Luka Doncic’s first game at Madison Square Garden and he’s heading in on fire, going for 55+ fantasy points in back to back games. Luka’s price has shot up to $9800 on FD and $8800 on DK, so targeting him is a bit trickier than expected. It’s an elite matchup and I love the stars at the Garden narrative, but his price is just steep. If this game stays close Luka should smash, so I’d consider him a borderline elite target, especially on DK.

After a two week hiatus Dennis Smith Jr. is back, playing 30 minutes a night and producing well. This is an elite matchup for DSJ vs the inept Knicks defense, and while his price has come up a touch on FD to $6200 and $5700 on DK, I think there is plenty of upside for Dennis in this spot. He’s a strong GPP target.

Lastly, he’s not a priority for me, but it wouldn’t shock me to see a big rebounding game from DeAndre Jordan in this spot. The Knicks have zero size while also not having anyone who could really expose DJ on the perimeter. The minutes will be there, making it an elite spot for DJ to gobble up rebounds facing the least efficient team in the NBA.

This is my Dave Fizdale warning: Proceed with caution.

Here are people I trust to play 27+ minutes tonight for the Knicks: Tim Hardaway Jr. and Noah Vonleh. Vonleh is my favorite Knick to target as it’s just him and Mitchell Robinson in the Knicks frontcourt. Meanwhile, Robinson carries some GPP upside. With the Knicks injuries Tim Hardaway Jr has played 30+ minutes in four straight games, and I’d expect that to continue tonight. I like this spot for Hardaway, and I’d consider him a borderline elite target if it wasn’t for Fizdale.

If you want to go down the rabbit hole that is Knicks cheap guards and wings, go for it. There’s definitely upside if you correctly predict the right guy. Quite frankly, I’m over it and have thrown my hands up in protest over Fizdale and his rotation.