NBA Morning Thoughts 01.11.19

NBA Morning Thoughts 01.11.19

We have a nine-game NBA DFS slate on our hands, with tons of juicy matchups and lots of blowout potential tonight. Let’s get right to it…

Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards (o/u 231, MIL -7.5)

Milwaukee is 3rd in defensive rating, 6th in pace.

Washington is 27th in defensive rating, 8th in pace.

The Bucks head to Washington in an elite spot vs the Wizards. Giannis is listed as probable, so we can assume he’s good to go, but it’s important to monitor his status throughout the day.

We can target Giannis Antetokounmpo with confidence vs the Wizards. We know the Wizards provide an appealing DFS matchup because of their poor defense and high pace, but what also works in Giannis’s favor is the fact that the Wizards are 30th in rebounding rate in the NBA. Giannis should be able to dominate the glass on both ends of the floor. Giannis is a stud in an elite matchup, and hopefully with this game being played in Washington the Wizards can hang around.

Mike Budenholzer has taken some minutes away from Eric Bledsoe of late, so we can’t trust him at his price even with a strong matchup. That being said, because of the matchup, Bledsoe has some GPP appeal at what would typically be a cheap price for him.

While Bledsoe has been losing minutes, Malcolm Brogdon has been gaining them. Brogdon has only seen a minimal price jump with his recent strong production and minutes bump. I like Brogdon here — it’s a good matchup and a fair price. He doesn’t carry a ton of upside, but he offers some safe cap relief.

Khris Middleton is a safe middle priced SG. I prefer him on DK at a cheaper price and with the 3PT bonus. Middleton’s ceiling is a bit limited with Giannis in the lineup, so he’s more of a cash game target.

At $4900, Brook Lopez remains a bit cheap on DK. On FD, Brook is priced fairly at $5800.

The Wizards find themselves in an appealing pace situation, at home, vs an elite defensive team. I tend to agree with Vegas and their implied total that the overall pace of this game will outweigh Milwaukee’s defensive prowess.

Otto Porter Jr.’s minutes limit has been increased to around 30, which allows us to continue to target him at his down price. Porter’s production has been great since he returned, and I expect it to continue as he’s the second option on offense with Wall out. Porter is cheap on both sites at $6100 on FD and $5900 on DK. I don’t love that he will get Giannis minutes, but the path to upside for Porter is there.

On FD, Bradley Beal remains a bit too pricey for me at $9500, but he’s appealingly priced on DK at $8600. That’s a price we can target Beal at with confidence. Vegas thinks the Wizards will score around 111 points tonight, Beal will play a  big part of that.

Quietly, Ian Mahinmi has produced three straight 30 point games. I get the appeal but this isn’t the spot I want Mahinmi, as I don’t think his size is as necessary vs Milwaukee. Also, if he is getting minutes to matchup with Brook Lopez, Lopez will force him away from the rim, limiting his production.

I’m also off on Trevor Ariza and Jeff Green. Since Otto’s return, the production hasn’t been there for either.

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