NBA Morning Thoughts 01.10.19

NBA Morning Thoughts 01.10.19

Yesterday was a nightmare for me. It was by far my worst day of the year. During the long grind that is an NBA season, there are going to be nights that you need to forget happened. Last night was one of those nights.

Blake Griffin was a fixture in my lineups, and I’m still on board with my thinking. Blake averages 25-8-5 and found himself in an elite up-tempo game, but somehow didn’t manage to grab a single rebound in 37 minutes. Jusuf Nurkic, another staple of my lines, produced well … for 21 minutes. I took some unnecessary risks, with Alex Len being one. But Len was a risk I loved and at 2% owned on DK and under 1% owned on FD I’d take that risk again, as he’s shown production improvement on back to backs while playing the Nets, a team we must attack at center! Kyrie? Well, he played in a blowout. Transparency is key — I won’t win every night, and I will get things wrong at times. Consistency is king, so trust the process (shout out to Embiid for showing up last night).

Time to bounce back…

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat (o/u 210, BOS -1)

Boston is 2nd in defensive rating, 18th in pace.

Miami is 7th in defensive rating, 22nd in pace.

NO! The Celtics are back tonight, and are here to frustrate me. The Heat are 29th in pace in their last 10 games, which suggests coach Spo has changed his philosophy. This is not a good matchup for the Celtics. Boston plays noticeably worse on the tail end of a back to back, but I’m less concerned about that tonight as their starters did not play much in a blowout win vs Indiana last night.

I am not sure what FD is doing pricing Marcus Morris at $4700. Opposing PFs have had some success vs Miami this year, so this isn’t a terrible spot for Morris either. He’s an elite target and criminally underpriced on FD. On DK Morris is not nearly as appealing, priced at $5600, but still usable.

Jayson Tatum  came out firing last night vs Indiana, which I thought was extremely note-worthy. Thus far in the year Tatum has shown a frustrating lack of aggression on the offensive end, and last night could be a signal of things changing. He’s affordable on both sites and will likely be low owned.

Shoot-first ball dominant guards have also had success vs the Heat, and that puts Kyrie Irving in play. The $8400 on FD is appealing for Kyrie, and the $9000 on DK is high but fair. I don’t love Kyrie here, but on a small slate he’s more than usable in this spot, especially on FD.

Miami is a bit of a disaster to target in NBA DFS, as they play too many players and with different rotations to consistently count on. It also doesn’t help they find themselves facing an elite defensive team in Boston.

I don’t want any Heat players, and I don’t think you should either. If you’re desperate for Heat exposure, James Johnson might see a slight uptick in minutes. Johnson is a better defensive matchup vs the Celtics when they play Tatum or Hayward at the 4 than Olynyk or Bam would be.

Hassan Whiteside, as always, has the potential to break the slate. I don’t think that will happen tonight but nothing shocks me with Hassan. He’s strictly a GPP option.

It was interesting to me that Dion Waiters played 25 minutes last game after consecutive DNP’s. Waiters also has some GPP appeal.

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