NBA Morning Thoughts 01.07.19

NBA Morning Thoughts 01.07.19

While I hate to see anyone lose their job, I would like to raise a glass to the NBA DFS community and bid farewell to our arch nemesis; Tom Thibodeau. We can all relax now, the Thibsing is over…for now. With that being said, let’s get right into tonight’s juicy eight-game slate.

San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons (o/u 213.5, SA -3.5)

San Antonio is 16th in defensive rating, 23rd in pace.

Detroit is 12th in defensive rating, 19th in pace.

The Pistons provide a fairly mediocre matchup for the Spurs, as they are a capable defensive team who don’t play at an appealing pace. Still, the Pistons are not by any means a team to fear in NBA DFS.

Derrick White has averaged 33+ fantasy points on both sites over his last five games while averaging 29 minutes per game in those contests. White is priced appealingly at $5800 on FD and $5000 on DK. I’m not forcing White into my lineups, but he’s a strong affordable option at PG, especially on DK. The Pistons are a bottom 10 team vs PGs in DvP, this is a decent spot.

With that same logic, Bryn Forbes is a usable sub $5k PG on both sites. Forbes appeal is his decent matchup and strong minutes at a low price.

On DK, LaMarcus Aldridge remains cheap priced at $7400, on FD I’m not particularly interested in Aldridge’s elevated $8600 price tag. After a fairly slow month and half of the season, Aldridge has really started to find his offensive groove. His high rebounding total and impressive scoring numbers give him a safe floor and strong upside at his DK price.

I’m not particularly interested in targeting DeMar DeRozan in this spot. The same logic with Forbes and White can be used with DeRozan as he’s the Spurs de-facto PG for long stretches of the game. Still, this isn’t the matchup I want to stack Spurs and prefer Aldridge over DeRozan if looking to spend up on a Spur.

The Spurs are a tricky team to figure out in DFS as they aren’t overall a great defensive team but are  ranked third in defensive rating over their last 10 games. While I think that number is worth thinking twice about, I’m still not overly concerned about attacking the Spurs as they don’t have a ton of defensive talent. One issue with the Pistons in DFS? They don’t have a ton of options.

This is more of a gut call than anything else, but I really like Andre Drummond tonight. The Spurs don’t have anyone of Drummond’s athleticism to keep him off the boards and he’s too cheap on both sites priced at $9300 on FD and $8100. On paper, this is a bad matchup for Drummond but the Spurs have been exposed by athletic centers previously and Drummond seemed to finally snap out of his sort of “disengaged funk” his last outing. As I said, it’s more of a gut-call but I think Drummond comes out aggressive and attacking the glass on both ends tonight. Also, the Pistons don’t really have a backup big with Zaza hurt so Drummond should see 38+ minutes of run.

Because I really like Drummond here I’m not interested in any other Pistons players. Blake Griffin has been on a bit of a two-game heater with back to back 50 burgers, this seems like the perfect spot for him to fall back to earth.