NBA Finals Showdown | Warriors vs Raptors 06.07.19

NBA Finals Showdown | Warriors vs Raptors 06.07.19

The Warriors are in an unfamiliar spot down 2-1 in the NBA Finals. Here is my NBA Finals Showdown DFS breakdown of tonight’s game.

DraftKings

Captain

Steph Curry ($17700) vs Kawhi Leonard ($17400)

Round 4 of the Curry vs Kawhi at Captain debate and DraftKings has decided to switch their prices after Curry’s monster outing. Curry was sensational in Game 3, putting up LeBronesque numbers in the loss, but with Klay back that will slightly affect Curry’s usage. I also think we see a bit more out of Boogie in Game 4 and a lot more of Kawhi. Golden State is going to look to punch Toronto in the mouth early and I think Toronto’s response will be a “2nd half” style of play early in Game 4 meaning slower pace and more Kawhi. I like Kawhi quite a bit tonight. As always, both should be viewed as elite targets.

Draymond Green ($15600)

If you think the Warriors win this game then you should view Draymond Green as an elite target at Captain. I’ve mentioned Draymond as an elite Captain every game this series and he’s slightly disappointed, particularly in Game 3. Throughout the years, when the Warriors have been on their back we’ve seen Draymond step-up for monster games; especially on the glass and defensively. I love Draymond here and expect one of those crazy 14-16-12-4-3 stat lines. He’s dollar for dollar my favorite Captain because of the opportunity and down ownership after back to back mediocre production games.

Pascal Siakam ($14100)

Siakam is the type of player who thrives in a typical Warriors game environment and has had one amazing game, one really good game, and one terrible game thus far. I prefer to target Siakam at home ,but he’s really the only guy between Draymon and Cousins I’d want to target at Captain. I’m expecting a Lowry regression game and I worry about Klay’s hamstring. Ultimately I prefer to spend up on the Draymond and over crowd or save with Gasol or Boogie.

DeMarcus Cousins ($10200)

I think it’s fairly obvious to call Boogie a high risk high reward Captain tonight. In Game 3 Boogie noticeably had zero lift and was a non-factor throughout. So much so that Bogut played more minutes than Boogie. Boogie was chalk in Game 3 and the highest owned Captain which means we have recency bias on our side with his ownership likely to be on the lower end. Because of Game 2 we know Boogie can produce, it’s just all about how his thigh is feeling. Most will think because he’s only had one day to recover his leg won’t be ready in time, but personally I view the lack of minutes in Game 3 as a positive. Boogie will either be a donation to DraftKings or help win you a GPP but high upside low owned players like him deserve to be considered at Captain.

Marc Gasol ($9600)

Marc Gasol is the safer version of Boogie but also a bit of a risk. Unlike in the Eastern Conference Finals, Gasol produced on the road in Game 3 even though his minutes were slightly down. His minutes were down because Serge Ibaka blocked every shot to start the 4th quarter. I don’t expect Ibaka to be that big of a force on the defensive side of the ball in Game 4 which should see Gasol pass the 30 minute threshold. If you think the Raptors win this game Gasol is a decent target at Captain because of his upside. After Gasol, it’s tough to go any cheaper than him here. Iggy is the cheapest I’d go but I don’t strongly recommend him.

UTIL

Kawhi ($11600), Curry ($11800), Draymond ($10400), Siakam ($9400)

The four pricier options I’m considering at Captain are all top plays at UTIL the problem is we can’t play them all. There is very little super-cheap value we can count on tonight which means we will likely have to fade one of the big three. Most will fade Draymond and prioritize Curry and Kawhi. That is likely the safest strategy. I however am prioritizing Draymond and Kawhi. If you’re playing multiple lineups, one approach I would take is having two near identical lines but one with Kawhi and Draymond, the other with Curry and Siakam.

Klay Thompson ($8600)

Klay Thompson missed a game with a banged up hamstring and somehow his price went up. Sure there’s the opportunity for a Jordan-like “flu game” for Klay here I just don’t particularly think it’s worth the risk. Klay is a scoring dependent wing with a bad hamstring meaning the more he runs the more his legs will be affected by his shot. It also means we will likely see Klay less aggressive with his peripheral production. Klay won’t be attacking the glass or jumping lanes too often. If you want to take the risk and target Klay for the story I’m for it, but ultimately I’m off on Klay at this price.

Kyle Lowry ($8000)

I really liked Kyle Lowry and in Game 3 and it paid off quite well, however, tonight I think we see Lowry regress. Klay will likely be his primary defender again which will make things much tougher for Lowry; even with Klay’s bad hammy. I expect a lot of people will chase Lowry after a big performance and his incident with the Warriors owner which makes him a good fade in my eyes. I also think we see Kawhi handling the ball a bit more tonight which in-turn will negatively effect Lowry’s production.

DeMarcus Cousins ($6800)

Even though he’s really cheap I view Boogie as boom or bust and not much in-between. If his thigh is feeling ok, he will produce; if it’s not, he won’t play much. I’m for taking the risk tonight, just be aware of the risk.

Marc Gasol ($6400)

Even though I listed Gasol as a potential Captain I don’t view him as an elite UTIL target. Gasol has a low floor and decent ceiling but that means he should be considered. This is a decent price for Gasol and I expect him to be on the heavier owned side. I’d rather target Gasol at $6400 then Lowry.

Fred VanVleet ($6000)

Because of DK’s overall pricing and the amount of crow I’ve been eating I’ve officially caved on my stance on FVV. $6k makes my stomach turn but the minutes and production have been solid. FVV is a good target at this price and dollar for dollar I prefer him over Lowry. I wouldn’t play FVV and eat the $2k price difference though.

Andre Iguodala ($5600)

I still prefer to target Iggy over FVV straight up but today there are a lot of opportunities to have both in your lines. Iggy remains rock solid and one of my favorite overall UTIL’s.

Danny Green ($4800)

Danny Green is a fade for me. I get he’s a machine in the Finals and he was awesome in Game 3 but that sort of production is not sustainable for Danny Green. Even with his price up, because of DK pricing, Green will be heavily owned. Green has sub 14 DK point potential and at what I think his ownership will be I view him as a worthy fade. Even if Green goes nuts, his upside isn’t high enough to kill your lineup without him.

Serge Ibaka ($4400)

Ibaka is fine for his price but also remains a risk. There isn’t really a safe sub $5k option on DK so I have no qualms going with Ibaka. Just remember, his eight combined steals and blocks in Game 3 are not sustainable. We need Ibaka to score a bit more to be happy with his production.

Andrew Bogut ($4000)

Unless Looney miraculously plays Bogut is someone we can consider at $4k. First off, Bogut is overpriced, but out of all of the $4k and under options he’s far and away the safest. I’m fine with targeting Bogut here even if you have Boogie in your lineup. If you’re fading Boogie, Bogut makes even more sense.

Quinn Cook ($3000)

Cook loses most of his appeal with Klay Thompson playing as his minutes will be way down and unfortunately his price is still up. The only reason to play Cook is if you think Klay will be severely limited and/or get hurt again.

Shaun Livingston ($2600)

He’s a usable super cheap option. Livingston’s role is what it is regardless of Klay’s status. He won’t get you more than 22+ DK points but 15 is enough at his price.

Norman Powell ($2000)

Powell barely played in Game 1, played good minutes in Game 2, and barely played in Game 3. He’s cheap enough where I’m not against taking the risk but he’s clearly a risk. I think his minutes will be down in Game 4 unless Lowry or one of the other guards gets into foul trouble.

Jordan Bell ($1600) + Jonas Jerebko ($1400)

We’re really bargain hunting with these two and I’m not even sure if either sees the floor tonight as Jerebko was terrible in Game 3. Jordan Bell did show some life to start the 4th quarter and I would not be shocked if Bell got some run in Game 4. I think Bell is a sneaky high risk dart throw.

FanDuel

NOTE: FD will be mostly rankings, see player blurbs above for more information.

MVP

Kawhi Leonard ($16000)

Steph Curry ($16000)

Draymond Green ($13500)

Star

Kawhi Leonard ($16000)

Only if playing Draymond at MVP.

Steph Curry ($16000)

Only if looking to play both studs with Kawhi at MVP.

Draymond Green ($13500)

Pascal Siakam ($13000)

Pro

Pascal Siakam ($13000)

DeMarcus Cousins ($11000)

If you’re playing Boogie it means you think he will produce. That means he should be on a multiplier.

Marc Gasol ($10000)

Draymond Green ($13500)

It’s possible to play Kawhi, Steph, and Draymond at the multipliers as you’re left with $7250 for the two UTIL positions. This is a bit of a risk and I’m ranking that strategy in this spot.

Klay Thompson ($11500)

Kyle Lowry ($11000)

UTIL

Marc Gasol ($10000)

Andre Iguodala ($10000)

Fred VanVleet ($9500)

Andrew Bogut ($6000)

Danny Green ($7500)

Serge Ibaka ($8000)

Shaun Livingston ($6500)

Jordan Bell ($6500)

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