NBA Finals Showdown | Warriors vs Raptors 06.05.19

NBA Finals Showdown | Warriors vs Raptors 06.05.19

We’re back for Game 3 of the NBA Finals. Here are my top plays for tonight’s NBA DFS Showdown slates between the Warriors and Raptors.

Injury News

Klay Thompson

Right off the bat I think Klay gives it a go and plays. How effective he will be is another story, but we’ll get to that later. Why do I think Klay plays? It’s Game 3 in a series tied 1-1 in the NBA Finals. As long as the Warriors don’t think Klay is a detriment to the team while on the floor he will play.

That being said, what will the Warriors look like if Klay Thompson doesn’t play? Expect Quinn Cook and Shaun Livingston to absorb a lot of the minutes, we saw Kerr leaned on Cook late in Game 2 when Klay went down. Some may think Alfonzo McKinnie will see extended minutes but throughout the season McKinnie was an Iguodala and/or Draymond Green replacement. Unless the Raptors shift-up with Kawhi at the 2 and Siakam at the 3, the Warriors won’t shift-up with him and play Iggy at the 2 with McKinnie at the 3. During the regular season, with Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant BOTH OFF the floor, Steph Curry was a 1.44 FD and 1.55 DK fantasy point per minute producer with an insane 43.08 usage rating. If Klay can’t go Curry is the largest beneficiary with that 14.6% usage bump. DeMarcus Cousins sees a 7.89% usage bump. One interesting note is that Quinn Cook saw a .13 FD and .14 DK fantasy point per minute increase with a 13.7% usage bump. Those metric bumps match what we saw at the end of Game 2.

In only a small four-game sample size, the Warriors offense and defense significantly regressed when Klay Thompson did not play. While it makes sense the Warriors would be worse without Klay, four games is not a large enough sample size to make a definitive decision with. (Player Impact Tool – Team)

This is all relevant information even if Klay Thompson plays tonight as I doubt he’s at 100%. 50% of Klay likely means less minutes for him with less usage while actually playing. Unless Steve Kerr announces he’s feeling better than 75%, Klay’s hamstring will effect multiple players production tonight.

Kevon Looney

With Looney out for the remainder of the season one of or all of Bogut, Bell, and Jerebko will see increased minutes. It was Bogut who got the minutes while Boogie rested in the 2nd half of Game 2 and I consider him the favorite to see minutes in Game 3. Jerebko will play 6-8 minutes but has the potential to see 10-12 minutes if GS goes super small. Bell started for Boogie in Game 1 but Bogut saw the back-up center minutes in Game 2. What this tells me is that Kerr may switch up who he plugs in to the Looney role from a game by game basis and we’re sort of just guessing here.

DraftKings

Captain

Kawhi Leonard ($17700) vs Steph Curry ($17400)

Back at home and with a hobbled Klay I’m leaning going Curry over Kawhi tonight. I do think it’s important to note that if Klay had not been injured I would be leaning Kawhi. On the road, especially in the Finals, teams will lean on their star player more and more. I expect a lot of Kawhi tonight. Ultimately, I’m buying the Curry hype. Sure, no Klay means more attention on Curry for the Toronto defense but those are elite metric bumps and it wouldn’t shock me to see Curry come close to 50% usage if Klay doesn’t play. Both Kawhi and Curry should be viewed as elite targets.

Draymond Green ($15900)

I mention Draymond because he is going to be the forgotten man. People will either spend up on Kawhi or Curry or save and go Boogie Cousins. While that makes a ton of sense that doesn’t mean Draymond is a bad play. This is a chance to exploit Draymond at lower ownership than he should have and target his elite floor and ceiling at just under $2k less than Kawhi and Curry.

Kyle Lowry ($11400)

Yuck. This just feels awful; but not as awful as Kyle Lowry has been the first two games of the series. Lowry is living up to his inability to produce in big moments thus far but I think this is a really interesting bounce-back spot for him. The Warriors have been putting Klay on Lowry for the majority of the game, as bad as Lowry has been that is not an ideal matchup for someone with a bad hamstring. I expect Lowry to get a combo of a hobbled Klay (if he plays), Curry, Cook, and Livingston. Those are all exploitable matchups and Lowry gets a further bump as someone who should be increasingly motivated to prove his critics wrong. Lowry is priced fairly and will be low owned, I think he’s a sneaky Captain target tonight.

DeMarcus Cousins ($10800)

Boogie will rightfully be the chalk Captain tonight. He proved he can play extended minutes and produce in Game 2 and will likely see an even further usage bump in Game 3 with Klay banged up. Cousins is too cheap and allows you to fit multiple studs. Again, he will be the highest owned Captain by a fairly large margin and that’s because from a cost standpoint he’s the top play on the board.

UTIL

Kawhi ($11800), Curry ($11600), Green ($10600), Lowry ($7600), Cousins ($7200)

Everyone being considered at Captain should be viewed as an elite target at UTIL. In Game 2 the top lineup had only Kawhi Leonard and faded Steph Curry. Both are elite targets but it’s not necessary to have both in your lines. I don’t think much more needs to be said about how I feel about Draymond Green. He’s a rock solid target with safety and upside. I’m still interested in Kyle Lowry at UTIL. Again, I like the spot for him here and he should benefit with Klay’s uncertain hamstring. Not having Klay at 100% defending you is a big upgrade. Boogie Cousins will likely be the highest owned player of the night. He’s an elite value.

Pascal Siakam ($9400)

I was scared about a Pascal flop in Game 2 and it came to fruition. Pascal will be low owned tonight but is on the expensive side. It’s tough to spend up and also fit him in but there’s upside and he’s a way of differentiating. I view Siakam as a high risk high reward type target.

Klay Thompson ($8400)

Speaking of high risk and high reward…Klay will be low owned and I feel like that’s the only reason to play him. We’ve been told that Klay has a hamstring issue, whether it was a cramp in Game 2 or a strain, something is wrong with it. Hamstrings are finicky, and the NBA Finals are high intensity, the two don’t exactly always match. It’s tough to pay up for Klay at this price.

Marc Gasol ($6600)

Gasol is someone who has flopped on the road during these playoffs. His price is great based off of the ceiling he’s shown but I have serious concerns.

Fred VanVleet ($6200)

Fred VanVleet made me eat crow in Game 2 as I said he was too expensive for me to target. Well guess what? With his price even further up I feel exactly the same. Even if FVV plays huge minutes I don’t think there’s much upside with a lot of risk at $6200. I won’t tell anyone to not play him, but I don’t want to play him.

Andre Iguodala ($5600)

Iggy remains my favorite $5-7k option. His price is back up but at under $6k he provides some safe cap relief with upside. I’m going to continue to target him with confidence.

Serge Ibaka ($4000)

With Gasol road flops we’ve seen some decent Ibaka production. Still, Ibaka is a risky high upside value.

Quinn Cook ($3200)

If Klay can’t go Quinn is one of the top overall values at UTIL. DK has risen his price just enough to make you think twice about it but Cook is a decent target even though he’s a bit scoring dependent.

Shaun Livingston ($2800)

Livingston is in a similar position as Cook as he will see increased minutes if Klay can’t go. As a veteran Kerr can trust, I think Livingston will see decent minutes while the Warriors are banged up.

Norman Powell ($2400)

Powell was back in the rotation in Game 2 and played 21 minutes. I don’t trust his minutes but if he’s in the 15-20 minute range this is a steal of a price. He’s a decent value with his risk being his minutes.

Andrew Bogut ($2200), Jordan Bell ($1600), Jonas Jerebko ($1400)

Who is the biggest beneficiary with Kevon Looney out? I don’t think anyone really knows. As mentioned earlier, Bogut saw the minutes in Game 2 and I consider him the favorite to see some run in Game 3. All have their risks and rewards as super cheap options.

FanDuel

Note: FD will be mostly rankings. Check player blurbs above for more information about a specified player.

MVP

Steph Curry ($16500)

Kawhi Leonard ($16000)

Draymond Green ($13000)

Star

Kawhi Leonard ($16000)

I’d either play Curry at MVP or completely fade him. I’m ok with going Kawhi at Star and targeting either Curry or Green at MVP.

Draymond Green ($13000)

DeMarcus Cousins ($9000)

If fading Draymond.

Kyle Lowry ($11500)

Pascal Siakam ($13000)

Pro

DeMarcus Cousins ($9000)

Kyle Lowry ($11500)

Draymond Green ($13000)
It’s possible to play Steph and Kawhi in the top two and fit Green here. It’s risky but I list him here for that sole reason.

Pascal Siakam ($13000)

UTIL

DeMarcus Cousins ($9000)

Kyle Lowry ($11500)

Andre Iguodala ($9000)

Fred VanVleet ($8500)

Serge Ibaka ($7000)

Quinn Cook ($6000)

If Klay is scratched Cook goes above Iggy.

Shaun Livingston ($6000)

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