NBA Finals Showdown | Raptors vs Warriors 06.10.19

NBA Finals Showdown | Raptors vs Warriors 06.10.19

For anyone who’s been away, we’ve made it to Game 5 of the Finals and the Warriors are playing for their lives. Wait, what!? Kevin Durant is expected to play to play to try and save the Warriors season. Let’s get right to my NBA Finals Showdown breakdown…

DraftKings

Captain

Kawhi Leonard ($18000) vs Steph Curry ($17400)

Even with Kevin Durant playing and you’re looking to spend all the way up at Captain, Kawhi Leonard is the fairly obvious choice here. Kawhi was sensational in Game 4 and expect him to see similar usage in Game 5. The Raptors do not want this game going back to Oracle which means their best player will have the ball a ton. Curry becomes an intriguing low owned option as most will fade him after his poor Game 4 and the return of Durant. He’s still Steph Curry; and facing elimination I expect Curry to come out firing. Even if KD is late scratched, Curry will likely be lower owned then he should. Kawhi is the obvious one vs one choice if only playing one lineup but I do think you should have some Curry exposure at Captain if playing 8+ lineups.

Kevin Durant ($15000)

UPDATE: Kevin Durant is “Planning on playing” tonight.

This is a bargain price for an active Durant. Steve Kerr already announced that Durant won’t have a minutes limit if he’s available. After years of being called a “cupcake” Durant has the potential to shut everyone the hell up if he pulls off this comeback. Me trying to guess the mind-state of Durant, I’m pretty sure we will see him extremely motivated. Durant is my favorite target at Captain. I don’t view this as chasing points or a narrative, I view this as a desperate Warriors team getting the best player in the NBA back facing elimination. A healthy-(enough) Durant should not be cheaper than Draymond Green. Trying to gage Durant’s ownership is tough. I expect him to be high owned as he’s good value and carries an intriguing narrative behind him. The unknown is if people run from Durant because of his calf.

Pascal Siakam ($14400)

Not a whole not needs to be said here, Siakam will play 40ish minutes with 45+ DK point upside at decently low ownership. If you think the Raptors win but don’t think Kawhi will go crazy Siakam should be strongly considered here. 

Marc Gasol ($9000)

DK makes it tough as we have to either spend up at Captain or take a bit of a risk. Serge Ibaka’s improved play the last two games has affected Gasol’s minutes which has lowered his price – and will likely lower his ownership. Gasol has been an elite producer at home during the Playoffs and $9k is a good price for him. I don’t love him at Captain but he’s someone I’m strongly considering just for lineup building purposes. No one under $10k carries his sort of upside.

DeMarcus Cousins ($7200)

We’re officially chasing Boogie points here but I don’t really care. He’s clearly hurt and is an immense risk as we have no idea how his quad is feeling. He will also be used less on offense with Durant around. So why should we have any interest in Cousins here? His price! This is cheap and after three days off and minimal minutes in his last two games the opportunity for Boogie to play 25 minutes is there. Boogie just needs to be at 50% of his regular season production to hit any sort of value here. This is clearly a risk, but an educated one as there is 35 (non-multiplier) DK point upside at low cost.

UTIL

Kawhi ($12000), Curry ($11600), Durant ($10000), Siakam ($9600)

The top four priciest options I’m considering at Captain are elite to borderline elite targets at UTIL, it’s however unrealistic to play them all. With Kevin Durant playing, I’m prioritizing him and Kawhi Leonard. Curry is expected to see around an 8% usage drop with Durant back on the floor and at $1600 cheaper KD provides cap relief with similar upside. If fading Kawhi it’s really important to get Pascal Siakam in your line unless you think the Warriors just blow them out. With all that being said, Curry should not be viewed as a complete fade. As mentioned above, he’s still Steph Curry and his ownership will be down. Playing Curry and Durant and fading Kawhi Leonard while loading up on cheaper Raptors options is an interesting GPP strategy.

Draymond Green ($10600)

During the regular season Green was not really affected by Kevin Durant’s presence however during the postseason he has seen a 5.7% usage bump with him off the court. This makes sense as star players see more usage in the playoffs and without Durant the Warriors needed to lean on Green. Green is priced as if KD was still out so it’s a bit tough for me to spend up on him here. Draymond is still capable of a monster peripheral performance though so I don’t view him as a complete fade.

Klay Thompson ($8800) vs Kyle Lowry ($7600)

This is where DK makes it tough because there is quite a drop off in upside after these two. Durant’s presence has arguably the biggest effect on Klay as during the regular season he saw a 10.57% usage drop when on the floor with KD. Postseason Klay is expected to take a 7.12% usage hit. With Klay being scoring dependent his usage is CRUCIAL and with it down it’s tough for me to spend $8800 on Klay. I don’t love Lowry but in this price range I’d rather target Lowry and use the $1200 to upgrade elsewhere. If you can’t use the savings on anything I view it as a complete toss up. If fading KD I would get Klay in there over Lowry, if playing KD I’d go Lowry.

Fred VanVleet ($6400)

VanVleet remains a solid middle priced Showdown target. He won’t go for 35+ but he should be in the 20-28 DK point range.

Marc Gasol ($6000)

I separated VanVleet and Gasol because it’s easy enough to fit both in your lineups. Even with VanVleet’s increased production I still prefer Gasol as he has a similar floor with much higher upside. Both will be popular targets and I’d expect Gasol to be the higher owned of the two. Both just fit well into lineups that feature multiple studs.

Andre Iguodala ($5400)

If playing multiple studs it’s hard not to have two of Iggy, Gasol, or FVV. I’ve left off Looney because I prefer Iggy at $200 cheaper or spending $400 more to get to Gasol. With KD back the Warriors will be able to go with their death lineup which means less of Looney. Iggy will see his usage down a touch but this is still a safe price for him with his 30+ minutes of production across the board.

Serge Ibaka ($5000)

Ibaka has been incredible the last two games and Kevin Durant’s availability has the potential to be a good thing for him. While I’m touting Gasol and like him at his price I’m not sure if he’s able to stay on the court if the Warriors go with their death lineup. That could mean more minutes for Ibaka. Ibaka does carry some risk and will be high owned so I’m not against the fade.

DeMarcus Cousins ($4800)

I mean, if Boogie plays 25 minutes he’s an elite target at this price. We just don’t know how his quad will hold up, which is what makes him a risk. He’s only proven he can produce in one game thus far but ¾’s of that production is more than enough at this price.

Danny Green ($4400)

Green had his Finals moment in Game 3 but we should continue to expect 15-20 DK points from him. If you can afford it I’d rather take the risk with Boogie. Green is the safest-cheapest option on the board.

Norman Powell ($2200)

After Green you’re basically throwing darts at guys who will either not play or play less than 15 minutes, Norman Powell is my favorite dart in this range. Why? Because of Kevin Durant. I’ve touched on it earlier but KD IN means the Warriors can go with their death line of Curry, Klay, Iggy, KD, and Draymond. We’ve yet to see how Nurse will respond to that lineup this series but Norman Powell is a potential beneficiary. We could see Toronto go Lowry, FVV, Powell, Kawhi, Siakam or Lowry, FVV/Powell, Kawhi, Siakam, Ibaka. There’s a slight chance Powell sees extended minutes. Again, he’s a complete dart throw but getting someone cheap like Powell right is how to win a GPP.

FanDuel

MVP

Kawhi Leonard ($16000)

Kevin Durant ($13500)

Steph Curry ($16500)

Star

Kawhi Leonard ($16000)

If playing KD at Captain.

Kevin Durant ($13500)

Steph Curry ($16500)

I’m starting my lineups with two of Kawhi, Curry, and Durant. I list Curry because I view it as slightly disrespectful to leave him off but I’m mostly starting my lines with Kawhi and KD. I expect most to do the same which makes Curry one way of differentiating.

Pro

Kevin Durant ($13500)

Steph Curry ($16500)

It’s possible to plug in the three most expensive players in at the multipliers and punt at UTIL but I don’t recommend that strategy.

Pascal Siakam ($13000)

Draymond Green ($13500)

Kyle Lowry ($12000)

Marc Gasol ($10000)

UTIL

Marc Gasol ($10000)

Klay Thompson ($11500)

Andre Iguodala ($10000)

Fred VanVleet ($10500)

Kevon Looney ($6000)

He scares me but $6k is cheap enough where he’s worth the risk if going for a stars and scrubs line.

Serge Ibaka ($9500)

DeMarcus Cousins ($9000)

You know the deal.

Danny Green ($8500)

Shaun Livingston ($6500)

Norman Powell ($6000)

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