NBA Finals Showdown | Raptors vs Warriors 06.02.19

NBA Finals Showdown | Raptors vs Warriors 06.02.19

We’ve got an awesome Game 2 of the NBA Finals tonight and with that here is my breakdown for both sites’ Showdown slates, let’s get right to it…

DraftKings

Captain

Kawhi Leonard ($17700) vs Steph Curry ($17400)

Get used to the Kawhi Leonard vs Steph Curry at Captain debate this series because it’s going to happen every game. Game 1, I was team Kawhi over Curry and while the Raptors won, Curry out-produced Kawhi. I’m sticking to my guns in Game 2 and leaning Kawhi over Steph. It’s a razor thin margin, and I think the Warriors win Game 2, but I expect to see more of Kawhi on offense and less of Siakam which should lead to higher scoring. The Warriors were doubling Kawhi frequently in Game 1, which is a concern. I expect Golden State to have more of a focus on Siakam then they did in Game 1 which will lead to less double-teams on Kawhi. If the Warriors had won Game 1, I wouldn’t feel this way as they wouldn’t really need to switch up their scheme but because they lost, and Siakam crushed them, some focus will shift his way. Both should be viewed as elite targets.

Draymond Green ($15600) vs Pascal Siakam ($14700)

Siakam had his coming out party. Draymond had the infamous 10-10-10 triple-double in Game 1, which was actually lack-luster production for his price. Still, Draymond remains a rock solid Captain and dollar for dollar my favorite Captain on the slate. He has the same floor and similar upside as both Kawhi and Curry but at around $2k cheaper. I also think we see Draymond come out with even more of an edge than he typically does coming off of a loss. In his post-game presser he continued to make the point that he needs to be more aggressive on both sides of the ball while also taking Siakam’s 32 point performance personally. I’m a Siakam-stan, but at only $900 more than Pascal I prefer to target Draymond at Captain — quite easily.

Marc Gasol ($10500)

Marc Gasol continues his strong run of production at home. He’s cheaper than Lowry and Klay and has more upside. Gasol carries some risk but that risks seems to be extenuated on the road and not at home. He’s a rock solid Captain at his price and I’d expect him to carry some ownership.

Andre Iguodala ($6900)

Iggy is priced wrong for Game 2. I don’t think he carries a ton of upside but he’s priced around his floor and allows us to fit multiple studs. Ultimately, I prefer to target Iggy at UTIL but if looking for a super cheap Captain this is where I’d go.

UTIL

Kawhi ($11800), Curry ($11600), Draymond ($10400), Siakam ($9800), Gasol ($7000), Iguodala ($4600)

As usual, everyone I’m considering at Captain is an elite target at UTIL. There is enough value today where it’s very doable to play one of Kawhi Leonard or Steph Curry at Captain with the other at UTIL. If going under $10k at Captain both are musts for me at UTIL. Even if going Draymond, at least one should be in your line, but I’d recommend trying to fit both. I’m prioritizing Draymond Green over Pascal Siakam at UTIL as well. I’m a little worried about Siakam tonight as I really think the Warriors are going to put a ton of pressure on him. Siakam is capable of dealing with the added attention but it will likely lead to less scoring opportunities. One contrarian lineup approach is to play both Green and Siakam and leave off one of the studs. Marc Gasol is a rock solid target at $7k. Even if he was priced the same as Klay I’d prefer to target Gasol. Andre Iguodala is the top value for me. Fred VanVleet continues to get a lot of praise from the media about his efficiency, which is well deserved, but it’s asinine he’s priced $1200 more than Iggy. As good as FVV was in Game 1 he had 19.25 DK points, Iggy had 25 on a bad leg. Danny Green is another example of someone who should not be more expensive than Iggy. Peripheral production is more important for role players than scoring.

Klay Thompson ($8400)

Thompson’s overpriced which is frustrating because I think he will score a good amount tonight. I’m fine with Klay but he’s not a priority in my lines. If he was $7400 I’d love him, but at $8400 Klay need to score 27+ to hit real upside. Going Klay also means you have to sacrifice one of the bigger, more productive names.

Kyle Lowry ($7600)

Lowry is $800 cheaper and has been more productive than Klay Thompson over his last four games. Lowry shot the ball terribly in Game 1 but still produced 29 DK points. The increased pace the Warriors provide are good for Lowry’s peripheral production, I think he’s a solid target at this price. The debate between Lowry and Gasol is interesting. Gasol has the much higher ceiling, I’d argue Lowry is safer.

Kevon Looney ($6200)

The minutes will be there for Looney this just isn’t the greatest price. Looney does sort of fit a lot of builds and he’s the safest of the Looney, FVV, Boogie price group. He’s someone I feel fairly neutral about.

DeMarcus Cousins ($5400)

I think Cousins might approach the 12-14 minute mark in Game 2 but that’s just an educated guess. Boogie looked bad in Game 1 so don’t expect many minutes. He’s a high risk, high reward target. If Boogie gets the surprise start, I’d love him tonight as it would suggest Kerr, with Boogie’s blessings, is just going to run his big man out there 20+ minutes regardless of the consequences.

Jordan Bell ($2000)

I expect Bell to start again in Game 2 and while he won’t play more than 15 minutes he just needs to get us 10-15 DK points to be worth this price. Going Bell allows us to fit multiple studs. An important note about Showdown, don’t think individual value, think total value. We’re buying points here and Bell’s savings may allow us to buy 20+ points with someone like Draymond Green over Kyle Lowry.

OG Anunoby ($1400)

I mentioned OG in my Game 1 article but unfortunately he was scratched. Now listed as “Probable” for Game 2, OG is quite the interesting dilemma. OG averaged around 20 minutes a game during the regular season and was a constant in the Toronto rotation. His size and athleticism plays perfectly against a team like Golden State. There is no guarantee that OG sees the court even if he’s listed as active but even 7-10 minutes of OG at this price is worth it. Ideally, 10 DK points is enough and even 5-7 won’t kill your lineup. Personally, I think OG plays the 10 minutes that McCaw and Powell split in Game 1.

FanDuel

NOTE: FD will be mostly rankings, see blurbs above if looking for more information.

MVP

Kawhi Leonard ($16000)

Steph Curry ($15500)

Draymond Green ($14500)

Going Green at MVP is an interesting way of differentiating. With no price difference on FD these are the only three I’d consider at MVP.

Star

Kawhi Leonard ($16000)

Only usable at Star if going Draymond at Captain.

Draymond Green ($14500)

Steph Curry ($15500)

There’s enough value where we can start our lines with two of these three. I think there are ways later to differentiate. I have Draymond over Curry here because the cost savings are important.

Pascal Siakam ($11500)

Kyle Lowry ($12000)

He’s a way of differentiating. His ceiling is there but it’s dependent on his scoring.

Pro

Pascal Siakam ($11500)

Marc Gasol ($10000)

Kyle Lowry ($12000)

Klay Thompson ($12500)

UTIL

Marc Gasol ($10000)

Andre Iguodala ($9000)

Kevon Looney ($10500)

Fred VanVleet ($8500)

DeMarcus Cousins ($9000)

I honestly don’t really know how to rank Cousins. I think by now we’re all aware of the risk-reward with him.

Danny Green ($6500)

Jordan Bell ($7000)

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