NBA Finals Showdown | Raptors vs Warriors 05.30.19

NBA Finals Showdown | Raptors vs Warriors 05.30.19

The NBA Finals are upon us and with that we have a few huge NBA Finals Showdown contests on both sites. If you’re looking to win a huge prize be sure to differentiate but also remember it’s not the worst thing in the world to split a big prize with a ton of people. Let’s get right to the breakdown…

DraftKings

Captain

Kawhi Leonard ($17700) vs Steph Curry ($17100)

The debate on who to spend up on at Captain is tricky. The first question should be: is it worth spending at Captain? DraftKings pricing and the return of DeMarcus Cousins makes our decision a bit complicated for Game 1 as there really isn’t much value we can rely on. Going with one of Kawhi or Curry at Captain means you have to sacrifice elsewhere. That reason alone could lower both of their Captain ownership’s slightly. Both will be 65+% owned overall. Now, between the two, I’m leaning spending the $600 more and going Kawhi. Cousins return does have an impact on Curry as Curry averaged .31 less DK points per minute and saw a 10.89% usage drop during the regular season with Boogie on the court. The Playoffs are different though, and Curry won’t see that sort of metric decrease tonight; however, that coupled with Kawhi likely guarding Curry for large segments of the game has me favoring Kawhi. Opposing players are only averaging 10 shot attempts per game against Kawhi during the playoffs. That is a staggering stat! Boogie Cousins minutes and less volume from Curry means it’s Kawhi for me. Because it’s Showdown, both should be viewed as elite targets.

Draymond Green ($15900)

I expect Draymond Green to be the most popular choice at Captain as he allows us to save $1k+ with a similar floor and ceiling of both Kawhi and Curry. Dollar for dollar Draymond is my favorite Captain and makes the most sense. Going Draymond at Captain means you will likely have a lot of people with the same lineup unless you really differentiate at UTIL.

DeMarcus Cousins ($10500)

We weren’t even sure Boogie was playing a few hours ago and his exact minutes are an unknown. I don’t think Boogie plays more than 27 minutes but he’s priced where 24 minutes are all he needs. During the regular season Boogie was a 1.41 DK point per minute producer and during his short stint these Playoffs he was producing at a 1.27 DK point per minute clip. Boogie is one of my favorite ways of differentiating tonight at Captain but just be aware he’s a huge risk. If Kerr flat out says Cousins is not on a minutes limit he’s my favorite target at Captain. If Kerr says he’ll be limited to around 15 you can’t play him at Captain. If there’s no determination, which is what will likely happen, Boogie is the high risk high reward target. My thoughts, it’s the NBA Finals, if Boogie is good to go he’s going to play minutes. 

Marc Gasol ($9000)

Marc Gasol is the cheapest I’d go at Captain and Boogie Cousins being active helps him. That means less switches for Gasol on the perimeter which limits the chances Nick Nurse pulls him if he’s getting exposed by the Warriors guards. Gasol has elite upside and is priced well. Besides for Game 6 vs Milwaukee, Gasol has been an elite producer at home during these Playoffs.

UTIL

Kawhi ($11800), Curry ($11400), Draymond ($10600), Cousins ($7000), Gasol ($6000)

All five players I’m considering at Captain should be viewed as top targets at UTIL. It’s not realistic to have one of Kawhi, Curry, or Draymond at Captain and target the other two at UTIL. The only way to comfortably fit all three is by spending down at Captain with Cousins or Gasol, but even then I wouldn’t exactly call it comfortable. I’m prioritizing Kawhi and Draymond with Cousins (if you’re feeling risky) and Gasol. I’m trembling as I write this but fading Curry makes some sense to me tonight. Pray for us.

Pascal Siakam ($9000)

Siakam continues to be priced sort of in no-man’s land and he’s even more isolated this series with a plethora of high priced studs. That will keep Siakam’s ownership down making him an intriguing GPP play. I like Siakam a good amount and the Warriors pace should lead to increased peripheral and fast-break production from him. Siakam’s defensive versatility keeps his minutes up this series.

Klay Thompson ($8400)

There are many sides of Klay to consider tonight. With Kawhi likely on Curry it’s fair to expect Klay to score and/or shoot more. However, Klay is also slightly affected by the return of Boogie Cousins. I also expect Klay to be a primary defender (along with Iguodala) on Kawhi which will limit his peripheral production. I think Klay is slightly overpriced and I’m ultimately staying away. He does sort of fit in lines if spending up at Captain.

Kyle Lowry ($7800)

This is a fair price for Lowry I’m just not a huge Lowry guy. The argument for him is that Kawhi could fatigue if on Curry the majority of the game meaning more of a role for Lowry on offense. That’s a tough sell for me.

Andre Igoudala ($6600)

The minutes will definitely be there but Iggy’s main objective is to guard Kawhi Leonard; which isn’t great for fantasy production. I’d prefer Iggy to produce in his peripherals at home more so than on the road. At $600 cheaper I’d prefer to go Gasol over him.

Fred VanVleet ($5400)

I get that VanVleet’s shooting has turned around and that it also helps that Toronto is at home but $5400 doesn’t provide any sort of real upside in my opinion. I’d rather go cheaper to spend elsewhere.

Serge Ibaka ($4200)

Ibaka should be viewed as risky, high upside – cheap GPP play. I actually like him a decent amount if trying to differentiate and win big. If Cousins is his active self, Gasol has some foul-trouble risk.

Norman Powell ($3600)

Powell is my favorite value on the slate and I expect him to be heavily owned. Powell’s defensive versatility is key against a team like the Warriors which will lock in his minutes. We also get Powell at home where he has been more aggressive and has shot the ball with higher efficiency throughout these Playoffs.

Danny Green ($3200)

I might be the only person who continues to think there’s a role for Danny Green this series. In Games 5 and 6 vs Milwaukee Green played less than 16 minutes. This is a different series, and it’s Game 1. I don’t think Green plays huge minutes but I think he will be in the 22-27 range. Green is also a versatile defender who has been in this spot before. If Green hits a few 3’s early he might have a bigger role than most people expect.

Shaun Livingston ($2400)

We’re really bargain hunting now. Livingston is only in play if you’re really trying to differentiate. At 10-14 minutes I don’t hate him at this price.

OG Anunoby ($1000)

We’re still unsure if OG actually plays but this is a really interesting dilemma if he does. He’s yet to play this postseason due to an appendectomy but throughout the regular season there was a defined role for him. His athleticism and defensive versatility means there should be a role for him this series whenever he’s available to play. At the complete minimum, OG offers interesting upside while differentiating your lineup. There is a legit chance that OG is active and doesn’t see the floor too.  

FanDuel

Note: FD will be mostly rankings. See player blurbs above for more information.

MVP

Kawhi Leonard ($16000)

Draymond Green ($14500)

Steph Curry ($15500)

Star

Draymond Green ($14500)

Steph Curry ($15500)

Pascal Siakam ($11500)

Pro

Draymond ($14500)

Steph Curry ($15500)

Yes, you can play Curry, Draymond, and Kawhi in the same line because of FD’s unintelligent pricing.

Pascal Siakam ($11500)

Klay Thompson ($12500)

Marc Gasol ($10500)

Kyle Lowry ($12000)

DeMarcus Cousins ($6000)

More on this in a second.

UTIL

DeMarcus Cousins ($6000)

What is FD doing here? With Cousins active it’s pretty impossible to fade him priced at the minimum. It’s easy enough to make a line on FD with Kawhi, Curry, Draymond, Cousins and whoever as your fifth guy. I expect that to be the most popular build and the most successful. Cousins provides elite cap relief and upside. He’s a must for me at UTIL.

Marc Gasol ($10500)

Andre Iguodala ($9000)

Norman Powell ($7000)

Serge Ibaka ($8500)

 

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