NBA DK GPP Breakdown 1/3
To revenge or not to revenge!? That is the question on tonight’s slate for sure. Kawhi and DeRozan are going to be massively owned here so my initial thought has been that the other 2 games are going to get overlooked. Also, if people are playing them both in the same lineup it is near impossible to get Harden in there. As you all know I don’t look over ownership projections per say, I just try to get the pulse of the industry and I am actually thinking Steph and KD go overlooked here. Let’s take a look at my 4 favorite GPP plays on DK tonight and hint hint, one of those 2 is going to be in there.
Steph Curry (DK $9,500)
This is right around the median price point Steph has been all year but on a 3 game slate I actually think we get him lower owned than he should be. Houston without CP3 is just a really good matchup for Steph and he’s is coming off of just about 3 straight 50 DK points games with 53.25, 49.25 and 54.25 points respectively. I just really like him here because of the ownership as I think most will go DeRozan and/or Kawhi or focus on Harden or Jokic. That leaves Steph underowned.
Malik Beasley (DK $4,900)
We saw Gary Harris come back last time out but that didn’t effect Beasley at all. He has been playing high 20’s to low 30’s minutes and producing at a consistent rate. He has really been able to score the ball in his last 4 games and had his blowup game last time out just due to the peripherals being there. The Sacramento matchup is pure gold for wings and the uptempo game fits Beasley oh so well. What is encouraging is that Beasley played 30 minutes even with Harris getting 20 in his first game back. All of those minutes were taken from Monte Morris and Juancho Hernangomez and they were able to play a bit smaller. That could be the same case tonight.
LaMarcus Aldridge (DK $7,400)
One of the ultimate pivot spots on the slate. With everyone on Kawhi and DeRozan, Aldridge makes a ton of sense and he has been really producing of late. He had 3 straight games over 43 DK points and 2 of them are over 52. His price is finally down to a range where we can play him with some upside as well. Just thinking about this game as a whole, if there is lots of scoring but DeRozan struggles, Aldridge is the obvious Spur that would benefit. Kawhi is going to be guarding DeRozan and who knows, they both might be able to take the other one out of the game a bit or at least give them fits. When playing in tournaments in these spots you just have to operate under the premise of “what if” and this is just a great spot for Aldridge if things fall right. His ownership should be pretty low too.
Nemanja Bjelicia (DK $5,300)
I honestly expected his price to get out of control during the time Bagley was out, but it certainly hasn’t. There is still plenty of upside in his price and he is going to have to play a lot of minutes tonight. Denver plays big, whether that is Plumlee and Jokic or Millsap and Jokic or even Millsap and Plumlee. Regardless, the Kings will need to stay somewhat big in the front court and Bjelicia should absolutely be the beneficiary of that. He played 36 minutes last time out and was able to put up 40 DK points on just 4-12 shooting while going 1-5 from 3. I mention that because he can do way more than just score the ball. I think the matchup will scare most away but I actually like this spot for him.