NBA Afternoon Thoughts 04.09.19

NBA Afternoon Thoughts 04.09.19

As we wrap up the year we have a fun 11-game NBA DFS slate with a ton of value and an intriguing Rockets-Thunder matchup. Let’s get right to it…

Boston Celtics @ Washington Wizards (o/u 224.5, WAS -4.5)

Boston is 6th in defensive rating, 16th in pace.

Washington is 27th in defensive rating, 9th in pace.

The Celtics are basically resting everyone as Kyrie, Hayward, Smart, Morris, Baynes, and Horford are ALL out while Daniel Theis is listed as questionable. Boston is locked into the fourth seed in the East so this is a meaningless game in an elite matchup. The Celtics provide ELITE value tonight.

The two biggest beneficiaries tonight should be Terry Rozier and Jaylen Brown. I say should because I do worry that both Rozier and Brown will be limited as Brad Stevens looks to get his bench a ton of run. However, both are considered elite targets as of now, especially Rozier who stated he’s “getting them(shots) up tonight.” While Terry is never one to shy away from a shot, what that tells me is he expects to see his full minutes load. If that’s the case, Rozier carries elite upside at $6000 on FD and $5200 on DK.

UPDATE: A recent tweet from a Celtics beat reporter suggested that we could see limited Rozier and Brown as feared. Again, if they’re full go’s they’re elite targets but there is some serious risk.

My favorite “nonregular” Celtic to target is Robert Williams, especially if Daniel Theis is scratched.  Williams is a 1.17 FD and 1.02 DK FPPM producer on the year who will likely see 25+ minutes in an elite matchup. Priced at the minimum Williams provides cap relief and elite upside, he’s close to a must for me.

After Williams, my next favorite Celtic not named Rozier and Brown is Guerschon Yabusele. Yabo is a .99 FD and DK FPPM producer priced at the minimum and should see 20+ minutes. If Theis can’t go, Yabo should be in the 30-minute range.

Everyone on the Celtics tonight is usable in GPPs. Here are the rest, ranked in order of preference: Theis (if playing), Wanamaker, Ojeyele, PJ Dozier, RJ Hunter. I like Semi but he’s not much of a per minute producer, that being said the minutes will be there. Wanamaker is the Rozier GPP pivot if you think he will be limited.

UPDATE: Daniel Theis IS playing

Theis becomes another one of the Celtics elite values tonight. He will likely be high owned and one vs one prefer him over Yabusele.

This is a sneaky game stack as the Celtics will likely regress defensively tonight playing most of their bench. The Wizards don’t do us any favors as there is some uncertainty in their rotation.

Troy Brown Jr. seems to be the Wizards getting the most consistent minutes of late with four straight over 30+ minute games. I don’t think Brown is a must be he’s a usable lower middle priced SF to target.

I want to want to love Thomas Bryant and Bobby Portis tonight vs an undermanned Celtics team, but I just don’t trust their minutes after both being limited in their last game. Both are GPP intrigue.

It’s hard to play Bradley Beal and Tomas Satorasnky, particularly Beal who has seen his minutes decline the last week and a half. If Jordan McRae is scratched, we could see Beal see extended minutes but ultimately I’d rather spend up on other SGs.

Charlotte Hornets @ Cleveland Cavaliers (o/u 220.5, CHA -7)

Charlotte is 22nd in defensive rating, 20th in pace.

Cleveland is 30th in defensive rating, 29th in pace.

The Hornets are in must win mode only a game behind the Pistons for the 8th seed in the East. While the Cavs play at a slow pace they are the worst defensive team in the NBA.

It’s basically win-or-go-home mode for the Hornets, which means we should see Kemba Walker as a full go tonight. This late in the year if you’re spending up, it’s best to spend on players in games with importance, Kemba provides that. Expect Kemba to be on the higher owned side.

With three straight games of over 28+ minutes and 30+ fantasy points, we can confidently target Frank Kaminsky priced at $5300 on FD and $4900 on DK. Kaminsky offers cap relief and upside, expect him to be on the higher owned side. Some risk for Kaminsky is that the Cavs have been surprisingly stout vs bigs all year. Still, he’s too cheap based off of his recent play. I don’t expect Marvin Williams to play but if he does I would have less interest in Frank.

After Kemba and Frank, there’s really only two targetable Hornets left in Jeremy Lamb and Miles Bridges. Lamb carries intriguing upside but is not someone I would prioritize. Bridges has shown a safe floor but with so much value tonight I’d look for someone with a higher ceiling.

The Cavs are locked into a bottom three record meaning they have the same odds to win the lottery as the Knicks and Suns. Currently, the Cavs and Suns have the same record but that doesn’t particularly matter much anymore. Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson are out.

No Love and Thompson make Larry Nance Jr. an elite target on both sites. We’ve seen all year what Nance can do with extended minutes and the Hornets provide an elite matchup to produce as they rank 30th in Advanced DvP against rebounding centers.

The Hornets also struggle against scorers making Jordan Clarkson an intriguing GPP option. In past years we’ve seen Clarkson explode for big performances in meaningless games late in the season. He’s far from an elite target but Clarkson will be under 5% owned with 40+ point upside.

Ante Zizic and Marquese Chriss also benefit from now Love and Thompson. While I prefer targeting Robert Williams as my value center Zizic is in a great spot and has typically produced with minutes.

I’m not against targeting Cedi Osman and Colin Sexton but I prefer going in a different route as both feel like “settling” at their price tags. I prefer to save or spend up as neither carry the upside I’m looking for.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Detroit Pistons (o/u 209.5, DET -9.5)

Memphis is 9th in defensive rating, 30th in pace.

Detroit is 13th in defensive rating, 28th in pace.

The Grizzlies continue their tank-a-thon in ultimate a game they should really want to lose with the Pelicans, Mavericks, and Wizards all within a game of them. Mike Conley remains out.

While this is a gross game environment with some blowout potential, it’s hard not to like Delon Wright, who’s been over 45+ fantasy points in three of his last four games and has played 39 and 42 minutes in back to back games. Delon is priced up but remains an elite target.

After Wright, the Grizzlies are a bit of a mess and not entirely necessary to target. While guys like Tyler Dorsey, Bruno Caboclo, Chandler Parsons, and Ivan Rabb are all very usable none of shown that great of a ceiling and couple that with the slow pace of this game they are not musts. They’re listed above in order of preference.

A GPP dart at center to consider is Tyler Zeller, who is priced at the minimum and should play between 17-24 minutes. He’s another GPP pivot off of guys like Williams and Zizic.

This new look tanking Grizzlies team is not a good defensive team and the Pistons are in a MUST-win game with only a one-game lead over the Hornets in the East. Blake Griffin is questionable.

I expect Blake Griffin to play, but I just don’t trust his production. The Grizzlies being terrible sort of hurts Blake a touch as they don’t particularly need to lean on him offensively against a team that should ultimately want to lose. Blake does carry intriguing GPP upside if he plays.

If Blake is scratched, Andre Drummond becomes one of the top plays on the slate. Drummond is a borderline elite target even if Blake plays as he should dominate the boards against the Grizzlies bad frontcourt.

Ish Smith is a usable punt at PG priced at $3600 on FD and $4000 on DK. It’s simple, the Pistons need to win and are a better team when Ish is on the floor, that alone should secure his minutes in the 20ish range.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat (o/u 220, MIA -4)

Philadelphia is 12th in defensive rating, 7th in pace.

Miami is 7th in defensive rating, 24th in pace.

This is a tough spot for the Sixers as they’re playing a motivated Heat team that is elite defensively. What complicates targeting Sixer players further is the fact this game means nothing as they’re locked into the three seed in the East. Joel Embiid is OUT.

Typically we look to target Ben Simmons and Jimmy Butler whenever Embiid is out but it’s hard to trust their minutes in this matchup. Ultimately, I think both are in the low 30-minute range, which isn’t quite enough to justify their price tags in this matchup. Both carry GPP intrigue simply because Embiid is out but both also carry a ton of a risk in a bad matchup. One vs one I would prefer to target Simmons as Butler has been bothered by a sore back, I don’t see any reason why Brett Brown would push him unless Jimmy Butler sort of demands it in D Wade’s last home game.

The next tier of benefactors with Embiid’s absence is Tobias Harris and JJ Redick and they too have minute concerns in my eyes. With nothing to play for in a bad matchup, I don’t think either is necessary. Their intrigue simply stems from Embiid’s absence and IF they get their full minutes load.

What the Sixers do at center is crucial as Jonah Bolden is questionable. If Bolden plays and starts he’s a decent value. If Bolden is scratched both Boban Marjanovic and Greg Monroe would join the list of intriguing cheap centers to consider. I think I’d sneaky prefer Monroe over Boban but that is simply a gut call.

There’s enough value on this slate where we don’t have to hunt for bargains in the Sixers backcourt and on the wing in a bad matchup.

While the Heat’s playoff hopes are dim they are still in the race only one game back of the Pistons and tied with the Hornets. The Sixers are a terrible defensive team when Embiid is out with a 112.5 defensive rating which would rank 24th in the NBA, this is an elite matchup for Miami.

Of course, the biggest news about this game is this is potentially Dwayne Wade’s last ever home game in Miami. This is arguably a hot take, but I don’t actually think the Heat care THAT much about making the playoffs and care more about giving Wade a proper sendoff. A great story would be IF D-Wade propelled them to the playoffs but ultimately that would mean Wade would be the reason which equal fantasy production. Wade is an elite target tonight against a regressing Sixers defensive because of the narrative. His price is up but that is because his production has been up with 30+ fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. Wade will carry ownership because of the narrative and I will likely be among the many that roster him as his minutes/production, matchup, and the narrative all point to a monster showing in potentially his final home game.

Because I think this is the D-Wade show tonight, I don’t have a ton of interest in other Heat targets. That being said guys like Goran Dragic, Justise Winslow, and Bam Adebayo are borderline top targets because of the matchup and meaningfulness of this game. Bam would be my favorite of the trio to target.

A sneaky cheap GPP PF to consider is James Johnson as he’s played 28 and 30 minutes in back to back games and is priced at $3700 on FD and $4000 on DK. Johnson carries 25+ point upside at very low cost.

New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls (o/u 216.5, CHI -1.5)

New York is 28th in defensive rating, 17th in pace.

Chicago is 25th in defensive rating, 21st in pace.

If you love bad basketball you’re in luck as both the Knicks and Bulls have basically secured their spot in the lottery and may actually try and win this game. While some games have meaning, this game is a DFS gem and one I want exposure in.

Point Mario Hezonja is fully back in play tonight priced at $7700 on FD and $5700 on DK with three straight 45+ fantasy point outings. The Bulls provide another elite spot for him to produce. Hezonja is quite frankly too cheap on DK, expect him to be heavily owned. His $7700 price tag on FD is scary for a player like Mario but you can continue to target him with confidence.

The Bulls rank 27th in Advanced DvP against rim protecting centers but Mitchell Robinson firmly in play. I love Mitch tonight on both sites, he’s an elite target who will likely get overlooked with all the value at center.

With Luke Kornet starting Kornet should be considered another elite target. In his last three starts, Kornet has not been under 40 fantasy points and remains priced under $5k. Kornet has a legit shot to 10x his price tag and is close to a lock for me. Target him with confidence.

The Knick to consider if fading Hezonja is Dennis Smith Jr. DSJ is Hezonja’s risk simply because he played 26 minutes last game. If he’s bumped into the 30-minute range, that could cut into some of Hezonja’s minutes and production. DSJ is a risky lower middle priced GPP PG to consider.

The Bulls will remain without Lauri, Otto, Kris, and Zach which means we can continue to target their G Leaguers.

Jakarr Sampson is easily my favorite Chicago Bull to target tonight. Sampson hasn’t been under 35 fantasy points in his three games he’s played and should continue to see around 30 minutes in an elite spot vs the Knicks. Sampson is priced well on both sites at $6300 on FD and $6100 on DK. He’s an elite target.

The other Bull I trust to get minutes is Walter Lemon Jr as he’s been right around the 30-minute mark in each start. Lemon is priced up so he does carry some risk but the Knicks provide a ceiling spot for him. Lemon has proven he can get to the 45+ fantasy point range, that is intriguing priced around $6k.

I don’t trust any of the other Bulls and their rotation as guys like Luwawu, Arcidiacono, Sampson, Selden, and Alkins all seem to be splitting minutes. Cristiano Felicio is usable but there are other punts at center I MUCH rather target.

Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans (o/u 235, GS -9.5)

Golden State is 11th in defensive rating, 10th in pace.

New Orleans is 23rd in defensive rating, 3rd in pace.

The Warriors are locked into the one seed and as great as a matchup as this is I don’t think we need to prioritize targeting ANY Warriors players. Steve Kerr has said none are resting but I don’t expect any to see their full minutes load. This game also has the potential to be over by half time which would further limit Warriors minutes.

If desperate for Warriors exposure because of the Pelicans matchup DeMarcus Cousins and Steph Curry would be the two Warrior studs I’d prioritize.

Klay Thompson also carries some GPP appeal as we’ve seen him explode vs bad teams over and over.

Kevon Looney is another usable super cheap center to consider but not on the same level on intrigue as some of the other previously mentioned.

The Pelicans carry some intrigue as long as we get news of who’s available and who’s not. Anthony Davis is listed as probable which means he probably won’t play. Julius Randle is a mystery.

If BOTH Randle and AD sit, one of Jahlil Okafor, Christain Wood, and Cheick Diallo will smash their price tag. Last game it was Okafor and I’d lean betting on Okafor again. All three would carry elite upside the risk is just picking the right one.

Elfrid Payton and Ian Clark would also be intriguing options with AD and Randle sit. Clark has been awesome but it’s truly tough for me to stomach his price tag on a massive slate. I’m not against it and he’s a borderline elite target as the Warriors are a team we can attack late in the year but $6k+ on FD is terrifying. On DK, Clark is much more appealing at $4600 and with the 3PT bonus. Payton carries 50+ point upside on any given night and I don’t expect him to be limited. If AD and Randle are scratched early, expect him to carry some ownership.

Toronto Raptors @ Minnesota Timberwolves (o/u 229.5, TOR -6.5)

Toronto is 5th in defensive rating, 15th in pace.

Minnesota is 24th in defensive rating, 13th in pace.

While I like attacking the Timberwolves, there is no need to target any Toronto Raptors tonight. Nick Nurse has proven he will limit his starters minutes in meaningless games and this is a meaningless game with them locked into the two seed.

I also don’t have much interest in any of the T-Wolves as the Raptors are an elite team defense.

If you’re desperate for Minnesota exposure, I’m not against spending up on Karl-Anthony Towns in GPPs. He clearly carries tremendous risk as he’s looked fatigued and disengaged the last two weeks, but Towns always carries 60+ point upside. Towns also wants to secure a spot on one of the three ALL NBA teams to qualify for his Super Max.

UPDATE: KAT is listed as questionable.

If KAT is scratched, both Gorgui Dieng and Dario Saric become top targets worth considering. Dieng would likely see 30+ minutes as a strong PPM producer. Saric would also see a usage and minutes bump.

Andrew Wiggins has been producing well and sees a favorable usage bump but ultimately there are other SGs I prefer targeting at his price point.

Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks (o/u 223, DAL -7.5)

Phoenix is 29th in defensive rating, 12th in pace.

Dallas is 18th in defensive rating, 19th in pace.

More bad basketball and more DFS gold between the Suns and Mavericks. The Suns are locked into a top three spot in the lottery so this is a game we could see them try and win meaning more reliable minutes. Booker and co remain out, Richaun Holmes is also out.

Josh Jackson is an elite GPP target, not much needs to be said. With so much value at PF, Jackson isn’t a must and will be overlooked with 50+ fantasy points upside. That is something we strive for when looking for GPP targets.

With Holmes scratched, Dragan Bender will be a chalky elite target as he’s consistently produced around 30 fantasy points and in a strong spot. I never love Bender, but he’s a safe bet to 6x his price tag. Ray Spalding is also a usable punt at PF who will be overlooked with appealing upside.

The Booker replacement has been Jamal Crawford and though his price is up Crawford remains one of the top SGs on the slate as the Mavericks rank 28th vs primary ball-handlers and 21st vs scorers. Crawford has been over 45+ fantasy points in back to back games and remains priced under $6k.

With Crawford running the show, I’m not interested in guys like Okobo and Melton. With all the available value neither are worth it.

The Mavericks have the incentive to lose this game, but Luka Doncic appears to be playing tonight. This is an elite spot to target Mavericks players, their risk is how many minutes they get.

Luka Doncic is an ELITE GPP target tonight. Not many will play him and the Suns are an ideal team to attack. If Luka is a full go tonight, expect him to seal his Rookie of the Year award with a dominant performance. I really like pairing Luka tonight with Donovan Mitchell on FD as a Harden and Wade pairing pivot. In games Luka has played recently, his production has been strong, he carries legit 55+ fantasy point upside at under $10k.

This is also potentially Dirk Nowitzki’s final home game in Dallas and it would not surprise me if Dirk gets a Kobe-line sendoff as most are expecting with D-Wade. Dirk’s risk is his body just might not be able to handle 30ish minutes (even though he’s come close this year). Dirk is an intriguing GPP dart throw, the Suns poor defense is the right team for Dirk to attempt to dominate and say good bye to the Dallas fans.

If Luka is scratched, both Daryl Macon and Trey Burke would become borderline elite values to consider. We love to attack the Suns at PG and both would benefit in Luka’s absence. I’d be off on both if Luka is deemed a full go.

I don’t really want anything to do with the Dallas frontcourt. I do expect Dirk to see big minutes and dominate usage thus hurting guys like Powell, Kleber, and Mejri.

Denver Nuggets @ Utah Jazz (o/u 214, UTA -2.5)

Denver is 10th in defensive rating, 26th in pace.

Utah is 2nd in defensive rating, 14th in pace.

Brutal spot for the Nuggets against an elite Jazz defense that has something to play for. I’m off on all Nuggets players with none of their regulars resting.

The Jazz are playing for playoff seeding and will be without Rubio and Neto. Denver is not a team I like to attack but the PGless Jazz have some appeal.

All year we’ve looked to target Donovan Mitchell when he’s running the show and Mitchell is once again a top target tonight. I don’t expect him to be limited at all and will likely be on the lower owned side with most paying up for Harden. Mitchell is a strong GPP target who carries Harden like usage whenever Rubio is out.

The other main beneficiary is Rudy Gobert. Rudy has two things working against him tonight, matchup and the value at center. Because center is flushed with cheaper intriguing options he’s far from a must but Rudy still carries some appeal particularly at his DK price.

Royce O’Neal and Jae Crowder are usable cheap wings but far from priorities.

Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder (o/u 228, HOU -1)

Houston is 17th in defensive rating, 27th in pace.

Oklahoma City is 4th in defensive rating, 6th in pace.

This is far and away the top matchup of the night as both the Rockets and Thunder have playoff seeding to play for. In terms of matchup, this is a better spot to target Rockets players as the Thunder provide an appealing pace-up spot that’s prone to fantasy goodness.

Expect James Harden to heavily owned. The Thunder rank 26th vs scorers and 25th vs primary ball-handlers, this is an elite matchup. There is so much value on the slate that fitting in Harden is easy to do, target Harden with confidence as he makes his MVP case against an elite opponent.

The GPP pivot off of Harden is Chris Paul. I much rather spend up on Harden then target CP3 but targeting CP3 in a plus-matchup carries GPP appeal.

Clint Capela’s production has seemingly returned as he’s been over 40 fantasy points in five of his last seven games while playing under 30 minutes in four straight games. The minutes dip is concerning and coincides with the return of Faried but if Capela is in the 30+ minute range in an intense game environment, he provides legit 50+ point upside. He’s priced appealingly on DK at $7500.

The Rockets are tied with the Jazz over the last 10 games with the NBA’s best defensive rating. While I still believe we can attack the Rockets in this matchup, this is not an elite spot for Thunder players.

What puts Russell Westbrook and Paul George in the elite category is the value on this slate and the need to win this game. The Thunder DO NOT want to fall back into the eighth seed and face the Warriors in Round 1. They need to win this game and look for them to lean on both Russ and PG13. One vs one I prioritize getting Russ in but it is easier to pair Harden with PG13 than it is to pair Harden with Russ. That being said pairing Westbrook and Harden is very doable with the value on the slate and something I recommend particularly in cash games. Target both with confidence.

While Steven Adams has been playing much more productive basketball of late I rather spend up or spend down than target him tonight.

I’m interested in the Thunder studs and not interested in their role players, there is better value elsewhere on the slate.

Note: I think it’s very important to have AT LEAST one of Harden or Westbrook in your lines tonight. With all this value their high floors offer a ton of appeal.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Lakers (o/u 224.5, POR -9)

Portland is 16th in defensive rating, 18th in pace.

Los Angeles is 14th in defensive rating, 4th in pace.

The Blazers are playing for playoff seeding and the coveted home court advantage in the first round so while this game features some blowout risk, expect their starters to be at a full go.

Damian Lillard is the high priced stud that will get overlooked. This is an elite spot for him matched up against the Lakers who rank 30th vs primary ball-handlers, 22nd vs scorers, and 28th vs fantasy superstars. The last ranking tells me the Lakers don’t really get blown meaning Dame is in a perfect spot for a 50+ burger at low ownership. He’s an elite target.

After Dame, I have some interest in guys like Enes Kanter and Mo Harkless but both are far from priorities. Center is loaded with cheaper options and Harkless has seen a minutes dip in back to back games with the return of CJ and the emergence of Evan Turner.

A sub 5% owned GPP target to consider is CJ McCollum, who is not making my line if I’m playing under 10 lineups but if MMEing I would want some McCollum exposure. He’s cheap and in an elite matchup, his risk is his minutes as we’re still not sure if Stotts will continue to limit him.

The Lakers will look to improve their lottery odds and continue to sit out all of their regulars except McGee and KCP.

My favorite Laker to target tonight is Jemerrio Jones. Yes, welcome to April NBA. Jones has played 25+ minutes in three straight games and has been over 20+ fantasy points in each game while still priced at the minimum. Last game Jones played 37(!) minutes and produced at over a 1+ FPPM clip. Jones provides elite cap relief and upside priced around the minimum, he’s an elite target. For those unsure of who Jemerrio Jones is, a brief scouting report by me would describe him as a hungry hustle rebounder who can dribble and is ACTIVE while on the floor. Those are things I LOVE in late season value plays as he has a real shot to 10x his price tag if around the 30-minute mark again as he’s expected to be.

Rajon Rondo will dress but won’t play meaning we can confidently target Alex Caruso tonight. Caruso isn’t a must with pay-up options at PG, but he remains an elite target.

Mike Muscala and Johnathan Williams have seemed to leap Mo Wagner in the late season rotation. Muscala is CHEAP on DK and is an intriguing target. Williams is a risky sub $5k GPP target.

The one Laker who continues to play big minutes is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Pope is someone who is not a priority for me but if playing multiple lineups is a guy I’d want exposure to. KCP has played 40+ minutes with 40+ fantasy points in back to back games.


Teams With Something To Play For

Hornets, Pistons, Heat, Nuggets, Jazz, Rockets, Thunder, Blazers

Teams to Attack

Cavs, Wizards, Sixers, Knicks, Bulls, Pelicans, T-Wolves, Suns, Mavs, Thunder, Lakers

Blowout Potential

Warriors @ Pelicans, Grizzlies @ Pistons, Hornets @ Cavs, Raptors @ T-Wolves, Blazers @ Lakers

Top Targets

PG: Russell Westbrook, Kemba Walker, Damian Lillard, Elfrid Payton*, Terry Rozier, Alex Caruso, Dennis Smith Jr (GPP), Trey Burke (GPP), Daryl Macon (GPP), Brad Wanamaker (GPP)

SG: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell (DK), Luka Doncic (GPP), Delon Wright, Dwayne Wade, Walter Lemon Jr, Ian Clark (DK), Jamal Crawford, Jaylen Brown,

SF: Paul George, Mario Hezonja, JaKarr Sampson, Kevin Knox/Cedi Osman (GPP), Bruno Caboclo/Chandler Parsons (GPP), Royce O’Neale, Semi Ojeyele

PF: Blake Griffin*, Josh Jackson, Larry Nance Jr, Dragan Bender, Dario Saric*, Luke Kornet, Dirk Nowitzki (GPP), Jemerrio Jones, Daniel Theis, Guerschon Yabusele

C: Andre Drummond*, Rudy Gobert (DK), Clint Capela (DK), Mitchell Robinson, Ante Zizic, Gorgui Dieng*, Jahlil Okafor*, Robert Williams