NBA Afternoon Thoughts 03.15.19

NBA Afternoon Thoughts 03.15.19

Welcome to the James Harden slate! We have an eight-game NBA DFS slate, let’s get right to it…Note: Chris Paul news came toward the end of the completion of this article. Keep in mind Harden when reading about some high priced targets I mentioned as they were likely written pre-CP3 news.Charlotte Hornets @ Washington Wizards (o/u 232, WAS -3.5)Charlotte is 21st in defensive rating, 8th in pace.Washington is 26th in defensive rating, 19th in pace.This will be the fourth and final meeting of the regular season between these two teams and as has been the case every time, this matchup carries a lot of appeal. Cody Zeller is considered doubtful tonight.Starting with Kemba Walker, he flopped as “chalk” last match up vs Washington which will likely lower his ownership a touch even after a monster outing vs Houston is last game. Kemba has sort of become a boom-or-bust option in the 2nd half of the DFS season, but by now we know the Wizards provide a boom spot for him. Kemba is priced fairly at both spots with his DK $8200 price tag providing more of a ceiling. He’s a top target that carries elite upside but also some risk.Last game vs Houston with no Zeller it was Willy Hernangomez who got the start and saw the majority of minutes. Charlotte went small a lot and there is a good chance of that happening tonight but at minimum price and a 1+ FPPM producer, Willy is an elite value to consider vs Washington.Frank Kaminsky should also see increased minutes, I don’t particularly trust him but he’s a usable value. My fear is that Charlotte will stagger the minutes at center with Frank, Willy, and Marvin Williams when Washington goes with Portis at center, which could affect Frank’s minutes.The Charlotte big with the most secure minutes is Marvin Williams and he carries an elite DK price of $4700. I’d expect Marvin to be on the higher owned side on both sites as the Wizards provide an elite matchup. Williams is averaging 36.03 FD and 37.08 DK points in three matchups vs Washington on the year. He provides strong cap relief and elite upside.Nic Batum and Jeremy Lamb are more so secondary middle priced targets that provide upside. I don’t trust either of them but the Wizards provide a ceiling spot for them. I’d expect Lamb to be on the high owned side as he put up a 50 burger in his last matchup vs Washington. I’d imagine Batum will be on the lower owned side after being a “chalk” late scratch vs Houston. Batum is safer, Lamb carries a better ceiling.This is also an elite spot for the Wizards as the Hornets have regressed defensively in the second half of the season to the point where they are a premier team to attack in DFS now. Trevor Ariza is questionable.Bradley Beal is a stud and is priced as one on FD. Still, I don’t mind paying up for Beal at $10800 as the Hornets rank 27th in Advanced DvP vs opposing scorers and 25th vs opposing superstars. This is an elite matchup for Beal to build off of his impressive production. On DK priced at $9500, Beal is an elite target who provides legit 60+ point upside with minimal risk at under $10k. Beal will be a priority in my DK lines. Update: With CP3 out Beal is less of a priority for me on DK, still an elite play.Predicting the minutes at center for the Wizards has been a bit tricky but I fully expect Bobby Portis to handle the majority of the minutes tonight. The Hornets have been getting shelled by centers for the last month and attacking them with bigs is something we must continue to do as we wrap of the regular season. Portis’ position on the Hornets varies as he’s the “center” but he’s more of a stretch 4 and a rebounder. The Hornets rank 23rd vs stretch 4’s and 30th vs rebounding centers. Portis is an elite GPP target tonight.If Trevor Ariza can’t go, that would secure some minutes for both Jabari Parker and Jeff Green, who is a bit safer because of his price, but Parker carries the more appealing upside. Both are worth considering with Green a borderline elite target if Ariza can’t go.With that being said, Thomas Bryant is a cheap GPP high upside center to target. Bryant would likely see some added minutes if Ariza can’t go as the Wizards would shift up a touch more with Green at the “4.”With his price up, I’m fine with targeting Tomas Satoransky but he’s far from a priority in my lines. On DK, Tomas carries some cash appeal priced at $5800 as he continues to play elite level minutes with 30ish+ fantasy point production. He’s a safe middle priced PG.

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