MLB Regression – Manny Machado is heating up – The Quant Edge

MLB Regression – Manny Machado is heating up – The Quant Edge

Hello Friends! Last week’s hitting candidates were great examples of positive regression as we saw the group combine for seventeen total extra-base hits including seven home runs. In this week’s MLB projections, let’s dive into a group that includes Rowdy Tellez, Manny Machado, and others!

Rowdy Tellez

Batted Ball Metrics Baseline Form Past 14 Days Difference
Distance 225 feet 258 feet +33 feet
Fly Ball Percentage 36% 53% +17%
Hard Hit Rate 40% 41% +1%
Soft Contact Percentage 18% 11.8% -6.2%

Toronto’s first baseman has displayed serious power potential recently with five home runs in his last 13 games, but his production has been kept under the radar with the Blue Jays’ record sitting at 20 games under the .500 mark. Make sure to consider Tellez this week in daily fantasy, especially with Toronto playing in offensive friendly environments (Yankee Stadium and Rogers Centre)!

Manny Machado

Batted Ball Metrics Baseline Form Past 14 Days Difference
Distance 218 feet 243 feet +25 feet
Fly Ball Percentage 42.2% 48.9% +6.7%
Hard Hit Rate 38.6% 42.6% +4.0%
Exit Velocity 92 mph 94 mph +2 mph

It seems too obvious to write about Machado’s current form, but the Padres’ star has been ON FIRE with 12 extra-base hits in the last two weeks. Make it your priority to play Machado in ALL fantasy formats! You don’t want to leave free money on the table!

Robinson Chirinos

Batted Ball Metrics Baseline Form Past 14 Days Difference
Distance 220 feet 246 feet +26 feet
Hard Hit Rate 44.1% 63.6% +19.5%
Line Drive Percentage 21.3% 31.8% +10.5%
Exit Velocity 92 mph 96 mph +4 mph

In the past two weeks, the Houston catcher has shown some signs of being productive despite a low .190 batting average. In the table above, we see a big boost in all his batted balls metrics, which correlates well with his three extra-base hits produced during this time period including two home runs.

With a favorable schedule this week (Pirates and Mariners), this veteran should be a forgotten piece of a juggernaut offense. Grab a piece of an elite stack by firing up Chirinos in daily fantasy!

Eloy Jimenez

Batted Ball Metrics Baseline Form Past 14 Days Difference
Hard Hit Rate 35.4% 51.5% +16.1%
Distance 206 feet 212 feet +6 feet
Exit Velocity 91 mph 95 mph +4 mph
Soft Contact Percentage 20.0% 9.1% -10.9%

Jimenez’s rookie season has been volatile so far but in his last 43 at-bats, the young outfielder has produced a .326 batting average, seven total extra-base hits including five home runs, and an impressive .400 on-base percentage. Consider utilizing Jimenez in GPP formats this week with the 22-year old seeing and hitting the ball well!

Glenn Sparkman

Kansas City’s right-hander has only been in the rotation for a limited time period, so let’s utilize his career data as a way to build a bigger sample size.

In 89 innings pitched since 2017, Sparkman has produced a below-average 8.0% swinging strike rate and 5.04 Skilled Earned Run Average (SIERA), which gives us reasons to be skeptical of his current 3.62 Earned Run Average (ERA). Combined with a large amount of hard contact allowed (40.6%) and a generous number of home runs allowed (7 in 49.2 innings this season), a jump in this 27-year old’s ERA seems inevitable.

Further signs of trouble can be also be found when examining his lack of strikeout ability (career 5.56 K/9) and fluky Left On Base Percentage (6.1% higher than career mark). It would be wise to completely fade Sparkman in all formats going forward. Take advantage of this pitcher’s regression by rostering Cleveland hitters on Tuesday!

Sandy Alcantara

Miami’s young starter appears to have things figured out after producing a stellar 2.10 Earned Run Average this month but advanced statistics tell us a different story.

The first sign of trouble can be seen through Alcantara’s obvious lack of control. Despite producing an 11.2% swinging strike rate this season, the Marlins’ pitcher has walked at least two or more batters in 73% of his starts resulting in an ugly 4.22 BB/9. In a league with weaker opposing lineups, it is extremely concerning Alcantara continues to issue free passes at this rate despite the weaker competition. 

Future regression can also be found when examining his skill based statistics. For his career, the 23-year old’s SIERA stands at 5.37 which allows us to believe his current 3.51 ERA is not sustainable. When considering his poor strikeout numbers (6.4 K/9), we can feel confident stacking against Alcantara will print us money with regression right around the corner!

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