One of my favorite ways to get skin in the game is by betting on MLB Props. It’s one of the best ways to exploit Vegas as the odds for these props are usually quite favorable. As always, I’ll go over three selections I’m considering for tonight and the reasons why. After a 2-1 record last night, we’ve moved up to 57-27 on the year! As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.
New York Yankees OVER 4.5 runs
This was one total I wanted to check immediately when I saw that Trent Thornton was taking the mound. He’s been brutal at home this season and currently has a .373 wOBA with eight of his 10 home runs allowed. This Yankees lineup is slowing getting healthier and the addition of Aaron Hicks smack dab in the middle is a nice power boost to complement Gary Sanchez. Thornton rarely goes deep into games either. In fact, he’s only seen past the sixth inning once this season out of his 12 starts. I think it’s extremely possible that the Yankees can tag Thornton for the runs we’d need to hit the over. On the road, the Yankees have a .352 wOBA with a .207 ISO, both of which rank amongst the highest in the league.
Minnesota Twins OVER 4.5 runs
I have no issue picking on Carlos Carrasco in this spot at Progressive Field. Sure, he’s one the Indians “Aces” but he’s been pitching like anything but that. At home, Carrasco has .344 wOBA with a 3.22 xFIP. That 3.22 xFIP may give you some pause and think that he’s been more unlucky than anything. However, there isn’t much to dispute that eight of his 10 home runs have left the park here at Progressive Field. Facing a Twins lineup that has legitimate double-digit home run power through hitters 1-9 is a scary prospect for Carrasco. The final nail in the coffin is the .397 wOBA Carrasco has allowed to lefties at home. This Twins lineup is stacked with power lefty bats and just the first few hitters alone with Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario and Marwin Gonzalez could give him trouble. I think the Twins are an easy over bet tonight.
Brad Peacock OVER 5.5 strikeouts
I usually don’t give player props in this article unless I REALLY like one. This would be one that fits the criteria. Peacock is facing a Mariners lineup that is really struggling as of late and over the past week have the second highest K% in the league at 28. Not to mention in that same span they have a team .283 wOBA. Let’s not forget, Peacock faced this Mariners team once already in a RELIEF appearance that lasted 3 1/3 innings. Would you like to know how many strikeouts he registered in that appearance? Seven. In case you’re not good at math, that would hit the over. I think tonight, against a lineup that is struggling MUCH more than they were at the time, this is an over you want to target.