One of my favorite ways to get skin in the game is by betting on MLB Prop Bets. It’s one of the best ways to exploit Vegas as the odds for these props are usually quite favorable. After my last article, we’re currently 54-24 on the year! As always, I’ll go over three selections I’m considering for tonight and the reasons why. As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.
Milwaukee Brewers OVER 4.5 runs
When you make this bet, go ahead and do it again. Then again. Hell, maybe a third time. Why not, right?
I absolutely love this spot for the Brew Crew against Archer, who has been really, REALLY bad in 2019. First and foremost, the Brewers have been one of the best offenses in the league against righties and the numbers show it. Entering this game, they’ll bring with them a .342 wOBA and a .205 ISO. They’ve also been one of the most patient teams and sport a 9.7 BB%. It’s a boring stat, but when you consider that Archer is averaging over five walks per nine innings, it becomes quite important. Honestly, this total could have been set at 5.5 runs and I still would be interested. Sure, PNC Park isn’t the most attractive ballpark for an offensive barrage but when you’re Chris Archer, every park feels like Great American Ballpark.
Boston Red Sox OVER 4.5 runs
The Red Sox are my hometown team but as I started to write this, I realized I haven’t written about them much. Good news folks, today is a good day to do so! They’ll be at Yankee Stadium taking on J.A. Happ, who has not enjoyed much success in 2019. Pitching at home hasn’t been kind to Happ, who brings to this start a .370 wOBA with a 4.82 xFIP and nine of his 14 home runs allowed. It doesn’t feel like it, but the Red Sox have one of the highest ISO in the league against lefties at .201, which is tied for 10th in the league with the Twins and Brewers. The Red Sox have certainly failed to meet expectations to this point, but I think this is a really good spot for them to hit the over.
Baltimore Orioles OVER 4.5 runs
Sigh. So here’s the thing. I don’t exactly trust that the Orioles are going to go out and crack the ball around Camden Yards tonight on their own accord. What I DO feel good about is that Drew Pomeranz is going to go out and lay an egg like he always does. Does that make sense? Don’t really like the team but do like how bad the opposing pitcher is? The Orioles aren’t great offensively, but they do have a respectable .172 ISO against lefties. Their home numbers don’t blow you away and average just over four runs per game at Camden Yards. I’m not going crazy with this bet, but I would honestly be surprised if they were able to tag Pomeranz for at least four runs before knocking him out. Grabbing the extra run to hit the over off this bullpen feels doable, especially with how much contact they’ve been allowing. Worst case scenario, you’ve already won so much money off the Brewers that it won’t matter.