As we head into the weekend, I’ll be looking at three bets I’m looking to place tonight on this 14-game MLB slate. On Wednesday we had yet another 3-0 sweep in this article, bringing our yearly record to 60-27. The Dodgers will be my favorite bet of the night as they take on the legendary (in a bad way) Drew Pomeranz. As always, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @SBuchanan24.
Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 4.5 runs
This total could easily be 5.5 runs. In fact, I was expecting it before I checked the team total and was pleasantly surprised to see 4.5 for the taking. I don’t know how many different ways I can say it but Pomeranz is just plain bad when he takes the mound. He was getting shelled when he was a member of the Boston Red Sox and moves to one of the best pitchers park in the league in San Francisco. Somehow, while pitching at Oracle Park, Pomeranz still owns some ugly numbers with a .381 wOBA, and a 4.34 xFIP. Now, he’ll face a Dodgers team who are hitting lefties well with a .332 wOBA and a .187 ISO on the road. Averaging 5.1 runs per game on the road, I would be downright shocked if they don’t hit the over in this game. Maybe I’ll even retire from writing this article.
OK, that’s a lie.
San Diego Padres OVER 4.5 runs
Not usually big into betting on the Padres to hit the over on their totals. At home, they’re averaging just 3.7 runs per game and overall, they’re barely over four runs per game. So why the appeal tonight?
First and foremost, they’ve been hitting well over the past week. In that span, they boast a team .333 wOBA with a .231 ISO and a 12.8 BB%. Tonight, they’ll face the Nationals, who currently have the worst ranked bullpen in the league. First, they’ll have to get through Erick Fedde, who hasn’t been terrible, but he’s not exactly blowing guys away either. This bullpen has been shaky as of late as well and I think it’s very much worth targeting against. Over the past week, the Nats relievers are allowing a 51.7% hard-hit rate, which ranks as the highest in the league over that span. I get it, you aren’t excited about taking the over on the Padres, but I really think this is a spot where they can surprise.
Minnesota Twins OVER 4.5 runs
This is a tough matchup for the Twins going up against Matt Boyd. He’s great at home, he’s tough against lefties, but there’s a reason this team total is set at 4.5 runs and not 3.5 runs. Granted, 4.5 runs against a tough pitcher like Boyd DOES stop and make you think. This isn’t a slam dunk like some of the other matchups the Twins have been in this season. However, this is a club that smashes lefties overall on the year and is averaging 6.6 runs per game on the road, which is half a run higher than the Yankees at 6.1. The Twins have been the most profitable team in baseball and I don’t see that notion stopping tonight. The Twins, as they usually are, will be one of my tickets on the night.