I’m so glad I didn’t have an article yesterday to share because I had a horrible day of betting. So thankfully, you all didn’t suffer with me. Tuesday brings a fresh start and back on our winnings way here in my MLB Prop Bets article here on The Quant Edge. As always, I’ll give some of my favorite plays for tonight and hopefully pad our current winning record. Let’s jump into those plays and as always, feel free to reach me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.
Texas Rangers OVER 3.5 runs
So I initially wasn’t on this bet because the Rangers haven’t been strong against left-handed pitching this season. However, once I started to dive into a bit, I started to like it a lot more. First and foremost, Steven Brault is starting this game and he’s been a total gas can out of the bullpen in his limited appearances. Through 8.2 innings, Brault has already allowed eight runs on 10 hits, including two home runs and a 43.5% hard-hit rate. I imagine, pitching out of the bullpen, he won’t be in this game very long and then we’ll see a good amount of the Pirates bullpen. Those relievers haven’t been terrible BUT the Rangers have been very strong against righties. With a 3.5 run total against righties, I’ll take my chances on the over.
When facing right-handed pitching, the Rangers have a team .351 wOBA with a .208 ISO and a 10.1 BB%. As you’d imagine all of these categories are amongst the highest in the league. So with all this in mind, I don’t think 3.5 runs is going to be a total that will be difficult to hit the over on.
Tampa Bay Rays OVER 4.5 runs
It’s really hard not to like the Rays hitting the over today against the Diamondbacks. Taylor Clarke is making his MLB debut today as the D-Backs look to replace Zack Godley in the rotation. Clarke hasn’t exactly gotten off to a good start in the minors this season, posting a 5.92 xFIP with just a 6.1 K/9. One would imagine this could go extremely poor for Clarke and this could become a heavy bullpen game for the Diamondbacks, which has not been a strong part of their game.
Should the D-Backs be forced into the bullpen early, they bring with them one of the highest BB% in the league at 11.5%. That currently ranks as the third highest in the league behind only the Cubs and White Sox. They also have allowed a 38.9% hard-hit rate, which currently ranks as the eighth highest in the league. I see way more positives for the Rays to hit the over than negatives, so I’ll be taking that stance.
Bryce Harper to hit a home run
I usually never post these type of props in here because overall, I think they can end up being sucker bets. However, I’m really digging the odds on this one in a matchup that Harper has a legitimate chance to hit one out. Dakota Hudson is taking the mound for the Cardinals and he simply cannot get lefties out. He enters this game having already allowed seven of his eight home runs to them and 49% hard-hit rate.
Harper hasn’t been mashing the ball lately, which I feel like may give you some pause here. Currently, over at the DraftKings Sportsbook, the odds are set at +325, which really gives you a fantastic ROI if he cracks one. Despite his slump, Harper has a 43.5% hard-hit rate and a 61% flyball rate, so I feel like something has to give here soon. Again, don’t go crazy on these bets because you essentially have only three or four chances of him getting a chance but this is one of the rare occasions I’ll take a shot.