One of my favorite ways to get skin in the game is by betting on MLB Props. It’s one of the best ways to exploit Vegas as the odds for these props are usually quite favorable. As always, I’ll go over three selections I’m considering for tonight and the reasons why. As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.
Texas Rangers OVER 4.5 runs
I expected this prop total to be 5.5 after looking at who was pitching tonight. When I saw that books were offering them at 4.5, I felt all giddy inside and then remembered that I should put my bet down. The Rangers will be taking on Jorge Lopez, who has allowed at least four runs in five straight starts. If he continues that lovely trend, we’ll be sitting pretty with the 4.5 total. What’s also enticing is that Lopez has been downright brutal against left-handed bats and the Rangers are full of them. With the likes of Joey Gallo, Shin Soo-Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera and Rougned Odor in the lineup, it would be downright shocking if the Rangers don’t hit the over. Place your bet, pat yourself on the back for doing a good deed and enjoy your winnings.
Washington Nationals UNDER 4.5 runs
This is an interesting one to consider as the under currently has plus money. So the Mets will be starting Wilmer Font, who’ll be making just his second start since being traded from the Rays. He’s not someone I’d use in daily fantasy, but the Nationals simply aren’t hitting lately. Over the last three games, the Nats are averaging just 2.3 runs per game. If you want a bigger sample size, the Nationals are averaging just 3.8 runs per game at home, which is one of the lowest in the league. On top of that, the usually shaky Mets bullpen has been pitching much better as of late as well. In fact, over the past week, they’ve posted an xFIP of 3.22 with a 33.3 K%. I just don’t see the Nationals scoring five runs tonight with the way they’ve been hitting, so getting plus money on that bet is really enticing.
Astros ML & Milwaukee Bucks ML Parlay
This is a totally unique bet that I’ve yet to write about but c’ mon, I dare you to tell me you’re not already thinking about it. First and foremost, the Astors just annihilated the Tigers last night, decimated their bullpen and get another tasty matchup against Gregory Soto. It’s yet another lefty to feast on, a matchup the Astros have a .378 wOBA with a .231 ISO in. Then we look at what the Tigers bullpen looks like lately and that turns out to be a 5.37 xFIP with a 2.8 HR/9 over the last seven days. The cherry on top is Justin Verlander taking the mound for the ‘Stros, giving them a massive advantage in this game.
Then we have the Bucks taking on the Raptors in Game 1 of the Conference Finals. The Bucks are -230 favorites and when they’re favored this season, they’ve won 76% of their games, owners of a 60-19 record. I don’t dabble too much in multi-sport parlays, but I think this is a really fun one and has a really good potential to hit. To be honest, I don’t think many people realize you can cross over to two different sports in parlays, so I’m hoping this will open up so other options for people.