My favorite way to get some skin in the game is by betting MLB Prop Bets. During the week, I’ll give you some of my favorite plays of the night and share why I’m looking to target them. Let’s dive into my three favorite prop bets for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Boston Red Sox OVER 4.5 runs
This total just feels too low against Kyle Freeland and the Rockies. Sure, one can say “Freeland has been pitching better away from Coors Field.” This is true and I thank you for looking at his split. However, look at who he’s faced on the road. We have matchups against the Marlins, Rays, Giants and Brewers. Not exactly four teams that dismantle opposing pitching, right? The Red Sox are by far his toughest assignment on the road and I don’t imagine this goes well. Freeland is having issues with home runs and is allowing a ton of hard contact at a 41.8% rate.
Overall, the Red Sox seem like they’ve really turned a corner as a team, especially offensively. So far in the month of May, they own a team .379 wOBA with a .212 ISO and 22 home runs, all of which rank amongst the top five in the league. Not to mention, the Red Sox average 6.1 runs per game at home, which is the second highest in the majors. With the total sitting at 4.5, I have no issues taking this one.
Oakland Athletics OVER 4.5 runs
Mike Leake is taking the mound so we can blindly take the over in this contest. OK, maybe don’t do that on the regular but this didn’t require much thought from me. Sure, Leake has allowed just three runs over his last two starts against the Indians and Yankees, both of which were on the road. However, he doesn’t miss many bats and relies on contact to generate outs. His splits are ugly on both sides of the plate and he’s allowing a massive 2.1 HR/9 with an 18.3% HR/FB rate.
Let’s play devil’s advocate here and say Leake goes five innings and allows only a couple runs. The Mariners bullpen presents another opportunity for us to hit the over as they’ve been extremely poor in the month of May. Entering tonight, the Mariners relievers have allowed 25 runs over 34 1/3 innings along with seven home runs, both of which rank amongst the highest in the league. They’ve also shown some ugly command with a 13.7 BB%, which ranks as the second highest. I feel like we have so many opportunities for the A’s here that I want to hit that over.
San Diego Padres OVER 2.5 runs
We hit this total the first time the Padres faced Kershaw and won and I’m going back to the well again tonight. Kershaw has gotten off to a bit of a rough start this month and has a .364 wOBA with a 4.06 xFIP in two starts against the Braves and this Padres team. Let’s also not forget, this Padres team has a TON of power against lefties. Despite a .314 wOBA, this club owns a .218 ISO, which is the fifth highest in the league. I’m not much of a believer in Kershaw and I think the Padres have a legitimate chance of getting to him again tonight. It truly takes one mistake to hit this total.