We wrap up the week with three prop bets I’m looking to target on this massive 14-game evening of baseball. I don’t have much of an intro for today, so let’s just jump right into that information. As always, feel free to follow me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.
Philadelphia Phillies OVER 4.5 runs
Homer Bailey is still the fraud we’ve all come to know. After starting the season pitching curiously well, he’s reverted back to being, well, Homer Bailey. Now, he has the task of taking on a Phillies team that ranks amongst the best against right-handed pitching. It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that Bailey has not pitched well at Kaufman Stadium either, as he’s allowed 14 runs on 21 hits through 23 innings thus far. Bailey is also allowing a ton of hard contact, entering this game with a 48.1% ratio this season.
I think the Phillies are in a great position to hit the over in this spot and knock Bailey out of this game early. While the Royals bullpen has been good, the runs would likely come off Bailey if he’s out of this game early.
Minnesota Twins OVER 5.5 runs
This is a really big total to target the over on, but I can’t help but still like it, especially if you’re getting it at plus money. First and foremost, Tyson Ross has not been good this season despite starting the year off well. He recently was dealing with back stiffness and because of that, is now tasked with facing the Twins. This is a team that ranks amongst the best against right-handed pitching with a team .346 wOBA, a .239 ISO and a 38.3% hard-hit rate.
If they’re able to get to Ross early, they’ll have the luxury of facing a weak Tigers bullpen as well. Currently, they have a team 4.49 xFIP, which is amongst the highest in the league. The Tigers relievers have also combined for the second-highest HR/9 at 1.6, which trails only the Padres. With all this in mind, I think it’s obtainable that the Twins can hit the over in this spot and would make it all the better if you’re getting this at plus money.
Trevor Cahill UNDER 4.5 strikeouts
I just don’t see him exceeding 4.5 strikeouts at all in this spot. This game has one of the highest totals of the night as he, along with Dan Straily, are ready to give up about 100 runs tonight. Cahill faces an Orioles team that really doesn’t strike out much, to begin with, sporting a team 21.8 K% against righties, which ranks 20th in the league. Then we look at the game log that Cahill has so far this season. Ah yes, he would have hit the over on this prop three times through his first seven starts. For what it’s worth, Cahill has just four strikeouts total in his last two starts. If you’re like me and are a believer that Cahill is going to get lit up in this start, I can’t imagine him inducing five strikeouts in between the seven runs he gives up. Hit the under on this one.