Last time I wrote this article we had another successful Friday night, going 2-1 on the evening to bring our record to 62-28 on the season! For Tuesday, I’ll be hitting on my three totals I’ll be looking to target including the Nationals in an absolute smash spot against the White Sox. As always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Washington Nationals OVER 5.5 runs
Honestly, this total could be 6.5 runs and I’d still be interested. You see, if you’re a lefty and you’re taking the mound against the Nationals, you may as well just accept the fact that it’s going to be a long (short) night. Entering this game, the Nationals have a massive .365 wOBA to go with a .201 ISO, both of which rank amongst the highest in the league. If your name is Manny Banuelos, you’re about to walk into a very tough matchup.
Where Banuelos has really been struggling is with the home run ball. He currently has an HR/9 of 2.4 and has allowed at least two home runs on three different occasions this season. With the amount of power this Nationals team has, that’s not good news for Banuelos (but great for us). With nine of the 11 home runs he’s hit on the year coming at home, I don’t see how the Nationals miss on the over here. This is by far my favorite total to target on this slate and one I would label as a can’t miss.
Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 4.5 runs
The Diamondbacks destroyed the Phillies last night, which was quite unfortunate in DFS purposes because rain really took me away from that game. I was on them the entire day until I wimped out and took them out due to weather.
Thank you for letting me use this article as a way to cry about my non-exposure.
I’ll be back on them tonight in their matchup against Jake Arrieta. Lefties have smashed Arrieta this season and this lineup is full of them, especially at the top. On the season, Arrieta has allowed a .394 wOBA with a 5.85 xFIP with 10 of the 14 home runs. On the road against righties, the D-Backs sport a .322 wOBA with a .195 ISO, which is amongst the best in the league. With no weather concerns for tonight, I’d highly recommend going after this total.
Cincinnati Reds OVER 3.5 runs
A year ago, it would be crazy to be taking the over on a start involving Trevor Bauer. In 2019, it doesn’t sound so crazy anymore. Where Bauer has really been struggling is against lefties, especially at Progressive Field. This Reds lineup features a number of lefties and I think with the total currently at 3.5, it’s an over that’s obtainable. Against lefties at home, Bauer has a .387 wOBA with a 6.34 xFIP with six of his 13 home runs allowed. Granted, this isn’t a powerful or intimidating lineup but they can do enough damage to hit the over.