One of my favorite ways to get skin in the game is by betting on MLB Props. It’s one of the best ways to exploit Vegas as the odds for these props are usually quite favorable. As always, I’ll go over three selections I’m considering for tonight and the reasons why. So far this season, my picks have a current record of 55-26! As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.
Washington Nationals OVER 5.5 runs
I don’t know how else to put this, but Reynaldo Lopez absolutely positively sucks. Sure, he can throw the ball hard but that doesn’t really matter when the opposing batters are hitting it equally hard out of the ballpark. Tonight, he faces the Nationals on the road, which has not been a good split for Lopez. On the road, he sports a .412 wOBA with a 6.35 xFIP. Even with the Nationals being subpar at best against righties, I still think they can pile on the offense against Lopez. As you can see with our handy dandy Bullpen Tool, the White Sox have been using their bullpen heavily over the past three days, which could mean they’ll hang Lopez out to dry tonight if it gets out of hand. With all that in mind, I love this spot for the Nationals and hitting the over.
Atlanta Braves OVER 5.5 runs
Another total that’s quite high, but I’m not too concerned about it. Steve Brault is taking the mound for the Pirates and brings with him his awful track record in 2019. BUT WAIT, he tossed 5 1/3 scoreless inning against the Reds his last time out!!!!! Look, even James Holzhauer loses on Jeopardy so wild things can happen. Overall, Brault has been a disaster on the mound and at PNC Park, he has a .338 wOBA with a 5.66 xFIP. When you consider that the Braves have mashed left-handed pitching all season long and have some of the best power in the league against them, it’s hard to think they won’t chase Brault out early. If they do, which I’m banking on, they’ll likely be at or near the run total they need for the over. Again, don’t be scared off by the high total and hit that over.
San Diego Padres UNDER 4.5 runs
The Padres don’t feature a lot of lefties in their lineup, which is the way to beat Jerad Eickhoff. Even when they DO get some lefties in the lineup, it’s not someone you’re exactly fearing. I mean, unless the thought of a rare Greg Garcia home run keeps you up at night. When Eickhoff is facing righties, he owns a .284 wOBA with a 3.99 xFIP. This total feels a bit inflated for the Padres at just 3.5 runs per game at Petco Park. They’ve been hitting better as of late, I’ll give them that, but I just don’t like this matchup for them. If this total was at 3.5 runs, I’d be signing a different tune. Take the under in this spot.