One of my favorite ways to grab some get some skin in the game is to bet on MLB player props. It’s an area that can exploit, what many consider, the biggest weakness in Vegas. We’ve been on quite the run so far this week, going a perfect 6-0 on the props listed. The pressure continues for another good night!!! So, let’s make some money and if your heart desires, you can follow me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants OVER 8 runs
Basically what we have in this matchup is two struggling offenses going against two really bad pitchers. Something has to give here, right? I’m having a hard time imagining Chad Bettis and Drew Pomeranz engaging in a classic pitchers duel tonight, so I’m thinking the over makes a lot of sense here. It seems like people are in agreement as well, as this game opened up at 7.5 runs and has moved to its current total of eight.
Last season, Pomeranz struggled immensely against right-handed bats. He ended his year with a .401 wOBA against them and a 5.09 xFIP. We all know the Rockies love to hit against lefties and this lineup has the ability to fill up with righties from the 3-9 spots. Bettis was the opposite, allowing a .356 wOBA to righties with a 5.22 xFIP. While the Giants can be either lefty or righty-heavy, either lineup will pose a threat to Bettis, who wasn’t exactly stellar against lefties either.
While both teams are struggling for power, I still think they can do enough damage on both ends to exceed this total. If it starts to creep up a bit more during the day, I might consider fading this, so I would grab this at its current total of eight before it potentially changes again.
Tyler Thornton UNDER 5.5 strikeouts
We hit on Thornton when the book had him at 3.5 strikeouts (that was an absolute joke but we didn’t mind). The books are catching on a bit and moved him to 5.5 for this contest tonight against the Rays. One might think that the Rays, who own one of the highest K% in MLB at 26.1% would be an ideal team to pick on. My reasoning here is that the pitch that Thornton has used to generate strikeouts has been the curveball.
Unfortunately for Thornton, he’s facing one of the best hitting clubs against the curveball tonight. Only the Angels have better numbers against that pitch. With the perception that Thornton is racking up the strikeouts, we’re getting plus money on the under of 5.5. This is going to a prop you’re likely not going to feel great about taking but I think could end up being a sharp move.
Oakland Athletics OVER 5.5 runs
It’s hard not to like the over on this one with the way the A’s have been hitting the ball as of late. They made their four-game series against the Orioles look more like batting practice with the way they were putting up runs. Tonight could be another one of those nights in a game that has the highest projected total of the night.
Drew Smyly will be taking the mound for the third time this season and has yet to see more than 3.1 innings in a start. If he’s once again out of this game early and the A’s get into the Rangers bullpen, that gives us an even better chance of hitting the over. The Rangers bullpen has been struggling and has allowed nine home runs already, which ranks the fourth highest in the league. Their xFIP is also amongst the highest at 5.25, which puts them fifth in the league. As I’ve mentioned before, I’m usually a bit gun-shy on taking the over on a total that exceeds five runs but it’s hard not to feel good about it in this matchup.