One of my favorite ways to grab some get some skin in the game is to bet on MLB player props. It’s an area that can exploit, what many consider, the biggest weakness in Vegas. Last night was a great night as we hit on all three props I listed. The pressure is back on for today for a repeat! Let’s make some money and if your heart desires, you can follow me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.
Minnesota Twins OVER 2.5 runs
This feels just way too low for an offense that is smashing right now. Yes, the Twins are going up against Noah Syndergaard and it’s not usually a matchup you want to target against. However, this is a Twins team that enters tonight with the seventh highest ISO (.217) and the sixth highest wOBA (.352). The Mets bullpen is really struggling as well. Their xFIP is one of the highest in the league at 5.35 and have allowed 25 runs, which ranks 10th in the league.
While Jacob deGrom can blame a slider that looked flat last night for his struggles, the Twins pounced on every mistake he made. Exceeding a small 2.5 run total can easily be down in my opinion, especially against a bullpen that going through their issues at the moment. While people may not be inclined to attack this line, I really like it and was one of the first bets I took this morning.
Yu Darvish UNDER 6.5 strikeouts
If Darvish was striking out as many guys as he was walking, he’d probably be in a much better position than he is now. Unfortunately for him (and good news for us), that’s simply not the case. Darvish is currently the owner of an ugly 6:11 K:BB ratio and now faces a Pirates team that has shown plenty of patience in the early going. Entering this game, the Pirates sport a team BB% of 10.6, which ranks sixth in the league. Another layer that makes me like the under is that the Pirates have also been a team that’s tough to strikeout, owners of a 21 K%, which ranks them 20th in the league. We all know that Darvish has the stuff to be a major league pitcher and we’ve seen him rack up the strikeouts before, however, until we see that pitcher again, I’ll be hitting the under this evening.
Oakland Athletics OVER 5.5 runs
I’ll admit, once team totals exceed 4.5 runs on a given night, I’m not crazy about taking them. With that being said, I feel like we have a perfect storm going on with the A’s tonight against the Orioles. First and foremost, Dan Straily is taking the mound for the O’s in his first start. Let me tell you something, Straily is #NotGood. Landing in Baltimore had to be one of the WORST spots for him. He’s always had issues with the home run ball and this is while he was pitching in Miami of all places! Looking at our Park Factors tool here at TQE, you’ll see that Camden Yards ranked in the top 10 for HR factors to both right and left-handed bats. As for Miami, bottom five in the league.
The A’s have belted 22 home runs already, which ranks sixth in the league. I think they’ll be able to pour on the offense tonight and exceed this high total. You’re getting close to even money at some books right now, so I would get this while you can.