One of my favorite ways to get skin in the game is by betting on MLB Props. It’s one of the best ways to exploit Vegas as the odds for these props are usually quite favorable. As always, I’ll go over three selections I’m considering for tonight and the reasons why, which includes why Pablo Lopez is key to the Giants going under 3.5 runs. As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.
Kansas City Royals OVER 4.5 runs
I don’t get this total at all. When I saw they were facing Reynaldo Lopez, I immediately knew I was going to take this bet regardless of what the total was (keeping in mind, I wasn’t expecting higher than 5.5 runs). When I saw it was not only 4.5 runs BUT IT WAS GOING FOR PLUS MONEY, I started to wonder what good deed I did over the past week that earned me this wonderful line.
Lopez has been a complete puddle on the mound when he’s not pitching against the Tigers or Indians. At home, Lopez has been tagged with a .347 wOBA and a 5.57 xFIP with 11 of his 14 home runs allowed. Not to mention, lefties have hit him for an overall .411 wOBA and a 6.81 xFIP. The Royals have the potential to have up to five lefties in this lineup, which should make you feel all excited. Oh, did I mention the White Sox have one of the worst bullpens in the league? What are you waiting for?!?!
Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 4.5 runs
Noah Syndergaard can’t be trusted at this rate. When your last two starts come against the Tigers and Marlins and you end up giving up eight runs on 15 hits through 12 1/3 innings, things aren’t going your way. Syndergaard seems to be having issues with his slider and the Dodgers rank amongst the best teams in the league against the pitch. Not to mention, they’re crushing fastballs as well. I think this is an opportunity to go against a pitcher who is struggling and hitting an over that’s once again in plus money territory. Finally, on the road, Syndergaard owns a .340 wOBA with a 4.03 xFIP through 37 innings.
San Francisco Giants UNDER 3.5 runs
I hate taking the under (I’ve stated this many times so if this is your first time reading that statement, welcome to The Quant Edge!) However, I feel really strong about Pablo Lopez tonight against this Giants team. Lopez has only been useful to us when he’s pitching at home and his splits on the road are downright horrific.
Let’s focus on the good stats and his matchup at Marlins Park. Through 23.1 innings at home, Lopez sports a .200 wOBA with a 3.21 xFIP with only five runs allowed. For comparison, on the road, Lopez has a .381 wOBA with a 4.48 xFIP through 28.1 innings. The Giants are nothing special offensively and haven’t performed well on the road. With all that in mind, I’m looking to take the under on their total and hope for a big performance from the hometown hero Lopez.