MLB Pitching Preview | 5/7

MLB Pitching Preview | 5/7

Pitchers to Use

Colin McHugh

I was on McHugh to start the year and this is a spot I’m going to jump right back on. He is going to be unowned on this MLB slate, which makes him even more enticing.

Everything about his profile just suggests that he is good. He has an xBA of .221 and an xwOBA of .292. His zone contact rate is 81% and his whiff rate is actually among the highest on the slate at 28%.

The Royals have been swinging the bat well, but this is a spot I think we can take advantage of McHugh being priced in the midrange.

Caleb Smith

K-Leb Smith is my dude. I think we have played him every start and he hasn’t let us down yet. His SIERA and xFIP are among the lowest on the slate at 3.06 and 3.00 respectively.

To go with those peripherals, he also has an elite whiff rate of 35% to go with his zone contact rate of only 72%!

He may go overlooked here being priced up and facing the Cubs, but don’t make that mistake. As long as the wind isn’t blowing out heavily, fire him up. I’m going to do everything I can to pair Smith and McHugh.

Dakota Hudson

If you want to load up on all the bats and need a super cheap SP2, Hudson would be the guy I play. Again, I will be trying to pair McHugh and Smith, but if you’re desperate for value, play Hudson.

The Phillies big bats are mostly right-handed outside of Harper. Hudson has completely dominated righties this year as he has induced 71% ground balls, allowed only 30% hard contact, a 3.33 xFIP and a 2.17 wOBA.

Harper May homer off him, but he should be able to neutralize the righties. He also sports a surprisingly high whiff rate of 29% despite only striking out 18% so far this year. Maybe he is due for positive strikeout regression in the near future.

Pitchers to Pick On

Aaron Sanchez

Sanchez has a SIERA of 5.52 and an xFIP of 5.28. Meanwhile, his ERA sits over two full points lower at 3.09. Sanchez is due for some pretty big regression soon, and the Twins are among the league’s best vs right-handed pitching.

David Hess

When Hess pitches, it is the closest to live home run derby as we get as his HR/9 sits at 2.37. The Red Sox present a great spot to target home runs against him as they have power throughout the order.

You can full stack, mini stack, the whole order is in play as his 5.30 SIERA is the 2nd worst on the slate and his 5.77 xFIP is the worst.

Danny Duffy

The Astros bats are scorching hot right now and Duffy is coming to town. Duffy has an ERA of 3.27 but his xFIP sits at 4.65 and his SIERA is 5.10. He has been out-pitching his peripherals and he should struggle against a righty-heavy team here. He gave up 21 homers to righties last year, so look for him to start giving up homers to righties.

Freddy Peralta

Peralta has been getting pounded. I never understood his profile as he has had elite strikeout rates at every single level, yet he throws a 92 mph fastball 80% of the time. Yes, you read that right. He throws a below average fastball 80% of the time and he pitches in Milwaukee.

The Nats should get Rendon back here to make their lineup much better. Regardless, this is a spot we should have interest in the Nats.

Taylor Clarke

This is a minor league arm who hasn’t been very good at any level. He has an xFIP of 5.89 in AAA-ball this year and it was 4.43 last year. He has also been giving up the long ball to the tune of 1.5 HR/9 this year.

On top of that, he doesn’t strike anybody out and his walk rate is low. This means guys are going to be given the chance to hit the ball hard. The Rays can do damage against righties and they’re swinging the bat well right now.

Antonio Senzatela

I assume the Giants will be somewhat popular as this game is in Coors and the game sits at a 10.5 run total even with Bumgarner pitching on the other side which is by far the highest.

Senzatela gives up a ton of ground balls which can sometimes limit a stack, but if the ground balls start to find holes for base hits, the Giants could be in for a big day. As I always do with Coors, it’s a good spot to play if it is going to be underowned. Fade and pray if it is chalk as Senzatala can induce rally-killing double plays.