MLB Game Breakdown | Wednesday, May 15th

MLB Game Breakdown | Wednesday, May 15th

Make sure you keep a close eye on our MLB weather and line movement tools. If you have any questions, you can always hit me up @chrismeaney.

Milwaukee Brewers (4.3) @ Philadelphia Phillies (4.8)

Gio Gonzalez (LHP) @ Jake Arrieta (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: PHI -115

Pitcher Breakdown: Gio Gonzalez has only surrendered three runs in his 16 innings this season and he’s coming off an outing against the Cubs where he only allowed two hits over 5.2 scoreless innings. He’s not a big strikeout guy, though, and the Phillies rank 22nd in the MLB in strikeouts against lefties.

Jake Arrieta doesn’t have a lot of strikeout appeal either as his 82 percent contact rate is the eighth-highest in the majors. He enters with a 7.56 K/9 and 3.42 BB/9 over 50 innings. Arrieta has allowed four home runs in his last two starts and eight total. The Royals hit three bombs off him in his last start and the Marlins scored five on him just three outings ago.

Batter Breakdown: Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Bruan and Jesus Aguilar all provide a bit of salary cap relief if playing on FD. Keston Hiura picked up two hits in his MLB debut last night and is only $2.4. In fact, Christian Yelich is the only MIL bat over $4K on FanDuel.

The Phillies’ bats remain pricey on DK despite some of their struggles. Bryce Harper is as cheap as he’s ever been on FD and you can bet most don’t have him on their radar if you’re looking for a low-owned bat with upside.

New York Mets (3.8) @ Washington Nationals (4.8)

Wilmer Font (RHP) @ Patrick Corbin (LHP)

Over/Under: 8 Moneyline: WSH -158

Pitcher Breakdown: Wilmer Font will make his second start of the season and seventh in his career. Over his 69 innings, Font has a 43 percent hard-hit rate and 44 percent fly ball rate. He has a 59:31 K:BB ratio and he’s given up 49 runs and 17 home runs. He only lasted four innings in his loan start this season, so there’s no reason to get cute, despite the Nationals’ struggles of late.

Patrick Corbin will face the Mets for the third time this season and his first two outings weren’t great. Corbin racked up 13 strikeouts in 12 innings, but he allowed 13 hits, five runs and three homers. He’s one of the best pitchers on the slate, but I’d rather spend up on Justin Verlander or bats. Corbin enters with a career-high 40 percent fly ball rate and he’s been hit hard 37 percent of the time (42 percent last season).

Batter Breakdown: Tonight is a perfect time for Washington to breakout against Font, who has struggled against lefties over his short career (.289/.352/.588). Juan Soto is only $3.8 on FD and Adam Eaton is $3.1. Anthony Rendon is the only WSH bat I’d trust in cash.

Tampa Bay Rays (4.4) @ Miami Marlins (3.2)

Ryne Stanek (RHP) @ Jose Urena (RHP)

Over/Under: 7.5 Moneyline: MIA +164

Pitcher Breakdown: Jose Urena‘s 83 percent contact rate ranks sixth and he enters with a 44 percent hard-hit rate (ninth-highest). He’s allowed at least seven hits in five of his eight starts, and at least four runs in four outings. He’s also walked three batters in each of his last three starts.

Batter Breakdown: Tommy Pham has a team-high 85 percent contact rate and Ji-Man Choi checks in with an 81 percent mark. Pham is only $3.6 and Choi is $2.8 on FD. If you’re looking for bats to go along with Justin Verlander, the Rays are your answer,

Colorado Rockies (4.1) @ Boston Red Sox (5)

German Marquez (RHP) @ Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: BOS -149

Pitcher Breakdown: German Marquez‘s splits are real, which should be no surprise. He has a 1.55 ERA and hitters only have a .125 average against him on the road, compared to a .339 average and 5.34 ERA at Coors Field. Even still, this isn’t the best spot for him and I’d be hesitant to roster him unless you’re looking for a contrarian play.

Eduardo Rodriguez is a bit easier to roster, especially since the Rockies struck out 24 times last night. Seventeen of them came against lefty Chris Sale, but E-Rod has some strikeout appeal as well (46 K in 43.2 IP). Colorado’s 28 K% against southpaws is the sixth-highest mark in the game. Rodriguez has been hot and cold, but he’s allowed one or zero runs in three of his past four outings, so think about him in tournaments. He’s also been much better at home where he has a 2.59 ERA and .193 opponent batting average.

Batter Breakdown: If you’re not rostering Rodriguez, think about Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. Arenado’s .545 wOBA vs LHP ranks second. Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers and Michael Chavis are very easy on the wallet if you’re playing on FD. Keep in mind, Marquez enters with a 55 percent ground ball rate, so it may not be a good time to chase home runs, despite the fact he’s allowed seven this season.

Houston Astros (6.7) @ Detroit Tigers (3.4)

Justin Verlander (RHP) @ Gregory Soto (LHP)

Over/Under: 10 Moneyline: DET +305

Pitcher Breakdown: Justin Verlander is the best pitcher on the board tonight and it’s not even close. He also has the best matchup as the Tigers have the fourth-highest K-Rate. He’s allowed one or zero runs in six of his nine starts and the Astros are the biggest favorites on the board. You’ll have to find some cheap bats if you decide to roster Verlander, but there’s no reason to think he won’t light up his former team.

Gregory Soto, on the other hand, is in trouble. He only has four innings on his resume, but he’s allowed nine hits and seven runs in his only start which came against the Twins.

Batter Breakdown: Whether it’s been Houston’s bats in DFS, the money line or alternate spreads, the Astros have been good to us this season. It’s much easier to fit in a Houston stack if you are playing on FD. George Springer has gotten to a price where he’s hard to roster on DK, but he enters with five homers and a .509 wOBA (third-best) against LHP this season. He’s hitting .342 against southpaws and is a must on FD. Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman and Michael Brantley are bats to own on FD as well. Correa is dirt cheap and Aledmys Diaz has contributed to the offense since Jose Altuve hit the IL. Astros -3.5 at +105 is tempting again tonight.

St. Louis Cardinals (4.8) @ Atlanta Braves (5.4)

Michael Wacha (RHP) @ Mike Soroka (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5 Moneyline: ATL -135

Pitcher Breakdown: Michael Wacha has allowed 39 hits, 22 runs, seven homers and 22 walks in 37 innings this season. His contact percentage is sitting at 80 percent and he’s rocking a 24 percent line drive rate with a 38 percent hard-hit rate.

Mike Soroka enters with a 3.43 BB/9 over 29.2 innings, but he’s yet to allow more than one earned run through his five starts. In fact, Soroka has only allowed more than one run twice over his 10 career starts. The Cardinals don’t strike out a ton and they take their walks, but Soroka’s 59 percent ground ball rate keeps him out of trouble.

Batter Breakdown: The Cardinals are a stack I’ve suggested for most of the season, but Soroka’s 18 percent fly ball rate has me off of them. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman are worth spending up for as the Braves are a strong pivot from the Astros. Josh Donaldson and Nick Markakis have cheap price tags on FD, and Austin Riley is worth consideration on DK. Riley will make his MLB debut tonight after crushing 15 home runs in AAA this season.

Texas Rangers (4.9) @ Kansas City Royals (4.7)

Mike Minor (LHP) @ Jorge Lopez (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5 Moneyline: KC +115

Pitcher Breakdown: Mike Minor has allowed three or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts and he’s faced the Astros twice over that span. Minor enters with 53 strikeouts over his 53.2 innings and he’s tossed three scoreless outings – including one against Houston. He’s currently rocking a career best 74 percent contact rate and 42 percent ground ball percentage.

Jorge Lopez enters with a 40 percent hard-hit rate this season and for his career. He also has an 80 percent contact rate, which has contributed to at least four runs allowed in five straight starts. Lopez has coughed up 10 home runs this season and he’s allowed eight walks in his last 13 innings. The Royals’ pitcher has a 27 percent line drive rate which ranks sixth.

Batter Breakdown: Left-handed bats are slashing .319/.380/.667 with a .432 wOBA against Lopez and the Rangers have a lot of them in their lineup. Joey Gallo has nine homers and a .425 wOBA against RHP. Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo have combined for 10 homers and 25 extra base hits. This may be a good time for Rougned Odor and Nomar Mazara to get right as well, so think about them in tournaments. The Rangers’ .337 wOBA vs RHP ranks sixth.

Jorge Soler is the only KC hitter with a .300 average against lefties this season. He’s hitting .302 with two homers and a .349 wOBA. Whit Merrifield leads the Royals with a .366 wOBA this season after hitting .357 with a .402 wOBA against LHP in 2018.

San Diego Padres (3.4) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (4.2)

Matthew Strahm (LHP) @ Kenta Maeda (RHP)

Over/Under: 7.5 Moneyline: LAD -156

Pitcher Breakdown: Matthew Strahm is a bit too expensive for my liking and he enters with a few red flags: 45 percent hard-hit rate, 43 percent fly ball rate, 22 percent line drive rate and 80 percent contact rate. The strikeouts haven’t been there and the Dodgers’ 22 K% against lefties ranks in the bottom half of the league.

Kenta Maeda has been all over the place this season, but one thing that’s been consistent are the walks. Maeda has issued at least two free passes in seven of his eight starts and he enters with a 4.03 BB/9 over 44.2 innings. He’s surrendered six bombs over that span, but he’s allowed one or zero runs in four of his past seven starts. Maeda has a 1.86 ERA over 19.1 home innings and hitters have only managed a .152 average against him at Dodger Stadium, compared to a .289 average and 5.68 ERA on the road (25.1 IP). He only allowed three hits over six innings two outings ago against SD.

Batter Breakdown: Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe have combined to hit 19 home runs against RHP this season. They also lead SD in wOBA vs RHP (.370 & .363) if you’re looking for some late slate pop.

Left-handed bats are slashing .342/.405/.474 with a .380 wOBA against Strahm this season. Over the course of his career, left-handed bats have a .274/.363/.408 line against him, compared to a .184/.265/.315 line for right-handed hitters. The Dodgers’ .332 wOBA against lefties ranks eighth thanks to strong performances from Alex Verdugo (.438 wOBA), Cody Bellinger (.431 wOBA) and Enrique Hernandez (.384 wOBA). Chris Taylor is your value play and he has three bombs with a .344 wOBA vs LHP this season. Don’t forget about Justin Turner, especially on FD, as he had a .336 average and .433 wOBA against lefties last season.

In Case You Missed It:

Best Overall Pitchers: Justin Verlander & Patrick Corbin

Best Value Pitchers: Eduardo Rodriguez, Mike Soroka & Mike Minor

Pitchers I’m feeling: Eduardo Rodriguez, Justin Verlander & Mike Minor

Contrarian GPP options: Mike Soroka

Pitcher to fade: Patrick Corbin & German Marquez

Best Overall Hitters: Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Christian Yelich, Tommy Pham, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, George Springer, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley, Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr., Joey Gallo, Justin Turner & Cody Bellinger

Best Value Hitters: Juan Soto (FD), Anthony Rendon (FD), Lorenzo Cain (FD), Ryan Braun (FD), Jesus Aguilar (FD), Keston Hiura, Bryce Harper (FD), Maikel Franco (FD), Tommy Pham (FD), Ji-Man Choi (FD), Andrew Benintendi (FD), Rafael Devers (FD), Carlos Correa (FD), Aledmys Diaz (FD), Matt Carpenter (FD), Shin-Soo Choo (FD), Nomar Mazara (FD), Rougned Odor, Jorge Soler (FD), Justin Turner (FD) & Chris Taylor

Home Run Call of the Day: Cody Bellinger

Others HR calls to consider: George Springer, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr, Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, Franmil Reyes, Justin Turner & Max Muncy

Stacks: HOU, ATL, TEX & MIL

Underrated stacks: TB, LAD & WSH

Bet of the Day: TB -178

Others to consider: HOU -3.5 +105, LAD -156, TEX -139, MIL/PHI O9 & ATL -135

Run lines: TB 4.5, ATL 4.5, LAD 4 & MIL 4.5

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