MLB Game Breakdown | Tuesday, May 7th

MLB Game Breakdown | Tuesday, May 7th

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Boston Red Sox (5.9) @ Baltimore Orioles (4.2)

Hector Velazquez (RHP) @ David Hess (RHP)

Over/Under: 10 Moneyline: BAL +177

Pitcher Breakdown: Hector Velazquez has started four games and has yet to pitch four complete innings in those outings. It’ll be a bullpen game for the Red Sox.

David Hess has a league-high 86 percent contact rate and his 54 FB% is the second-highest among those with 30 innings. Hess has allowed eight home runs and 18 earned runs in 30.1 innings.  In 10 home innings, he’s given up 10 hits, eight runs and four homers.

Batter Breakdown: The price of the Red Sox stack has increased since Monday. All of their heavy hitters are in play. Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland and Jackie Bradley Jr. are worth rostering in tournaments as salary cap relief.

Texas Rangers (4) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (4.6)

Adrian Sampson (RHP) @ Steven Brault (LHP)

Over/Under: 8.5 Moneyline: PIT -141

Pitcher Breakdown: Adrian Sampson and Steven Brault have no MLB fantasy appeal. Sampson checks in with a 42 percent hard-hit rate and 42 percent fly ball rate. He only has 19 strikeouts in 27.2 innings. Brault has only tossed 8.2 innings this season, but he’s allowed two homers and four walks. He has a career 4.92 BB/9.

Batter Breakdown: There’s a good chance both teams put some runs on the board tonight, but it’s not a stack I trust in cash. 17 of the 20 home runs Brault has allowed in his career have come against right-handed hitters. The Rangers have a lot of lefties in their lineup, so the two I’m looking at are Elvis Andrus and Asdrubal Cabrera. Rougned Odor is affordable despite the lefty on lefty matchup. Gregory Polanco is also affordable, especially on FanDuel. Melky Cabrera, Starling Marte and Josh Bell should complete your PIT stack. It’s one many won’t be on.

Minnesota Twins (5) @ Toronto Blue Jays (4.1)

Jose Berrios (RHP) @ Aaron Sanchez (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: TOR +140

Pitcher Breakdown: After seeing Martin Perez have his way with the Blue Jays last night, we may just see Jose Berrios break records tonight. The Blue Jays’ 27 percent strikeout rate is the third-highest and they rank in the bottom five in wOBA. Berrios will be chalky, but it doesn’t matter.

Aaron Sanchez has walked 22 batters in 35 innings and he enters with a 3.94 BB/9 for his career.

Batter Breakdown: I’m going to take my shots with the Twins on the money line again and they should hit their team implied total. Jorge Polanco, Nelson Cruz and Eddie Rosario are easy on the wallet if you’re playing on FD. C.J. Cron and Marwin Gonzalez have some value on DK.

Arizona Diamondbacks (3.6) @ Tampa Bay Rays (5)

Taylor Clarke (RHP) @  Ryne Stanek (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5 Moneyline: TB -182

Pitcher Breakdown: Taylor Clarke will be making his first MLB start as he only has three innings on his resume. Clarke may be someone to consider going forward, but not in his first game against the Rays. He didn’t have high strikeout numbers in 177 Triple-A innings.

Batter Breakdown: I like Nathaniel Lowe‘s price despite the slow start.

Los Angeles Angels (4.9) @ Detroit Tigers (4.2)

Griffin Canning (RHP) @ Daniel Norris (LHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: DET +125

Pitcher Breakdown: Griffin Canning is worth considering as a second pitcher on DraftKings. Canning picked up six strikeouts in his first start last week and the Tigers are a decent matchup for him. Detroit has the second-highest K-Rate, they rank 24th in wOBA and have the second-fewest home runs.

Daniel Norris has allowed one or zero runs in two of his three starts this season. He’s not a strong option, but don’t be surprised if he churns out another decent performance for this game to hit the under. The Angels have a league-worst .204 average against LHP, but they have the lowest K-Rate in baseball.

Batter Breakdown: Shohei Ohtani will likely make his 2019 debut which should help this Angels lineup. Tonight isn’t a good spot for him as it’s a lefty on lefty matchup, but keep an eye on him on FD as he’s priced low. Mike Trout is getting cheaper by the day on FD.

Washington Nationals (4) @ Milwaukee Brewers (4.1)

Stephen Strasburg (RHP) @ Adrian Houser (RHP)

Over/Under: 8 Moneyline: MIL -110

Pitcher Breakdown: Stephen Strasburg is too expensive for me to roll out in Milwaukee. He’ll likely have the lowest ownership of the stud pitchers, though, if you’re looking for a contrarian play.

Batter Breakdown: Anthony Rendon could return to the lineup and I’d take the FD discount if he does.

Philadelphia Phillies (4.6) @ St. Louis Cardinals (4.4)

Aaron Nola (RHP) @ Dakota Hudson (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: STL -105

Pitcher Breakdown: Aaron Nola has been pretty inconsistent this season and I have a hard time rolling out any pitcher against STL.

Dakota Hudson doesn’t have a high K-Rate and he walks too many to consider rostering. He does keep the ball on the ground, though.

Batter Breakdown: Eventually the bats in Philly will wake up, but last night was another awful showing as they only manage three hits against Miles Mikolas who entered the night with the highest contact rate in baseball. They are too expensive to roll out in cash and should only be considered in tournaments.

Miami Marlins (2.9) @ Chicago Cubs (3.6)

Caleb Smith (LHP) @ Jon Lester (LHP)

Over/Under: 6.5 Moneyline: CHC -161

Pitcher Breakdown: I’m drinking the Caleb Smith blue Kool-Aid too, but it’ll be interesting to follow his road starts. Smith has 45 strikeouts in 36 innings this season which is legit, but he’s allowed three home runs and four runs in his two road starts. Smith has given up two or fewer runs in all four of his home starts. His 41 percent fly ball rate may get him in trouble on the road, but it seems the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field tonight.

Batter Breakdown: I’d imagine you will get some of the CHC bats low owned if you want to take a shot against Smith. I can almost guarantee that most will be on the Marlins pitcher. Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are starting to get into a rhythm and Javier Baez crushes lefties. Vegas is really buying into Smith as the Cubs only have a 3.6 team implied total.

Kansas City Royals (3.7) @ Houston Astros (5.9)

Danny Duffy (LHP) @ Collin McHugh (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5 Moneyline: HOU -240

Pitcher Breakdown: Collin McHugh is a mid-tier option to consider. The Astros are heavy home favorites.

Batter Breakdown: The Astros are straight up feeling it right now. They’ve been one of the most profitable teams of late in terms of investment on the money line and team implied total. Absolutely everyone is in play against Duffy. Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are a bit cheaper than the rest.

San Francisco Giants (4.9) @ Colorado Rockies (5.2)

Madison Bumgarner (LHP) @ Antonio Senzatela (RHP)

Over/Under: 10.5 Moneyline: COL -125

Pitcher Breakdown: Madison Bumgarner is the only pitcher to consider in this matchup and it’s a risky one. The Rockies are a team that usually eats up LHP, especially at home. It’s a play for those who rock multiple tournament lineups.

Antonio Senzatela enters with an 84 percent contact rate and very low K//9 to go along with a high walk rate.

Batter Breakdown: The SF bats are cheap considering the matchup in Coors. Usually, the road stack is hard to fit in, but you can definitely make it work in tournaments. Especially if you’re playing Noah Syndergaard on a late slate. It’s not one to consider in cash, but SF scored 24 runs in their recent four-game series in Cincinnati.

Aside from the heavy hitters, Mark Reynolds and Ian Desmond are two cheap COL bats who have a decent track record against lefties.

Cincinnati Reds (4.1) @ Oakland Athletics (4.5)

 Tyler Mahle (RHP) @ Mike Fiers (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5 Moneyline: OAK -126

Pitcher Breakdown: Tyler Mahle has a respectable 33:7 K:BB ratio over 33 innings. He’s been hit hard (44%) but enters with a 45 percent ground ball rate. I’m interested going forward, but the Athletics don’t have a high K-Rate.

It’s not a surprise to see Mike Fiers rank inside the top 10 when it comes to fly ball rate. He has a 42 percent mark this season and 39 percent for his career. Fiers has allowed eight home runs this season and 32 in each of his past two seasons. He also enters with a 43 percent hard-hit rate.

Batter Breakdown: The Reds are a stack I keep pushing and they are starting to heat up. Joey Voto and Yasiel Puig are basically free on FanDuel. Eugenio Suarez is a better play against lefties, but he has home run potential tonight against Fiers. Nick Senzel doesn’t feel like a big home run hitter, but he has three already.

Atlanta Braves (3.5) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (4.1)

Max Fried (LHP) @ Hyun-Jin Ryu (LHP)

Over/Under: 7.5 Moneyline: LAD -143

Pitcher Breakdown:

Batter Breakdown: Both teams have had a lot of success against LHP this season, but bot pitchers on the hill have been great this year. There isn’t much of a price discount on Ozzie Albies or Ronald Acuna Jr, but there is with Justun Turner and Enrique Hernandez.

New York Mets (4.2) @ San Diego Padres (3.4)

Noah Syndergaard (RHP) @ Cal Quantrill (RHP)

Over/Under: 7.5 Moneyline: SD +138

Pitcher Breakdown: Noah Syndergaard is a strong option against the Padres who have the highest K-Rate. He’s one of the safest options on the slate.

Batter Breakdown: The Mets offense has been cold of late and they remain pretty pricey.

In Case You Missed It:

Best Overall Pitchers: Jose Berrios, Noah Syndergaard & Stephen Strasburg

Best Value Pitchers: Griffin Canning & Tyler Mahle

Pitchers I’m feeling: Jose Berrios, Noah Syndergaard, Griffin Canning & Tyler Mahle

Contrarian GPP options: Aaron Nola & Madison Bumgarner

Pitcher to fade: Stephen Strasburg & Caleb Smith

Best Overall Hitters: Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Nolan Arenado & Trevor Story

Home Run Call of the Day: Mike Trout

Others HR calls to consider: J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, Eugenio Suarez, Yasiel Puig & Eddie Rosario

Stacks: BOS, MIN, HOU

Underrated stacks: CIN & SF

Bet of the Day: MIN -140

Others to consider: NYM -147, LAA/DET U 9, TEX & PIT O 8.5, HOU -204 & CIN +100

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