MLB Game Breakdown | Tuesday, May 14th

MLB Game Breakdown | Tuesday, May 14th

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Milwaukee Brewers (4.5) @ Philadelphia Phillies (4.1)

Brandon Woodruff (RHP) @ Jerad Eickhoff (RHP)

Over/Under: 8 Moneyline: PHI +105

Pitcher Breakdown: Brandon Woodruff has put together three strong outings in a row where he’s only allowed a total of three runs over 16 innings. He’s fanned 22 batters over that span and enters with an 11.48 K/9 over his 42.1 innings. The Phillies are not a big strikeout team, though, and they have some power in their lineup.

Jerad Eickhoff has also been very strong of late as he’s only given up one run in his last three starts (20 IP). Maybe more impressive is the fact he’s only allowed eight hits over that span. He’s coming off an eight-inning shutout performance against the Cardinals where he allowed three hits.

Batter Breakdown: It’s still a very hard task for both pitchers even with them coming in hot. The Brewers and Phillies can put up runs with the best of them, so don’t be shocked if this game surpasses the run total of 8 after it opened up at 8.5.

Lorenzo Cain is ridiculously cheap on FanDuel, as is Mike Moustakas, Jesus Aguilar and Yasmani Grandal. Keston Hiura will hit seventh in his MLB debut and he checks in at a reasonable price on DraftKings.

As for the Phillies, Woodruff enters with a 44 percent hard-hit rate so it hasn’t been all good for him. It’s hard to trust Bryce Harper at this point after another brutal night at the plate on Monday, but in tournaments, he’ll be under-owned.

New York Mets (4.4) @ Washington Nationals (3.7)

Noah Syndergaard (RHP) @ Jeremy Hellickson (RHP)

Over/Under: 8 Moneyline: WSH +125

Pitcher Breakdown: Noah Syndergaard has been very hot and cold this season, so he’s a tournament option only, but a decent one. This will be the third time he’s faced the Nationals this season, but Washington has been ice cold lately. Their 26.2 K% is the third-highest in the game.

Jeremy Hellickson enters with an 84 percent contact rate and 40 percent fly ball rate. He’s already allowed seven home runs and he gave up 11 in 91.1 innings last season.

Batter Breakdown: Left-handed bats are hitting .368 against Hellickson to go along with a .419 OBP and .474 wOBA. Jeff McNeil, Robinson Cano and Michael Conforto are all in play. You can easily fit a Mets stack in on FD.

Tampa Bay Rays (3.6) @ Miami Marlins (3)

Charlie Morton (RHP) @ Caleb Smith (LHP)

Over/Under: 6.5 Moneyline: MIA +130

Pitcher Breakdown: Charlie Morton has a better price tag on FanDuel and Caleb Smith has a better price tag on DraftKings. Both pitchers enter with an 11 K/9, but Smith has shown a bit more control. His matchup is slightly tougher, but the Rays enter with the highest strikeout rate (30.6%) against LHP. Smith has only allowed four runs over 24 innings at home.

Batter Breakdown: This has all the makings of a pitchers duel.

Colorado Rockies (3.3) @ Boston Red Sox (5.3)

Kyle Freeland (LHP) @ Chris Sale (LHP)

Over/Under: 8.5 Moneyline: BOS -250

Pitcher Breakdown: There’s really no need to get contrarian with Kyle Freeland as he doesn’t have a high strikeout ceiling, plus he’s going up against Chris Sale. The Red Sox’s ace has looked more like his old self of late, but he’s faced some pretty weak teams (BAL, CWS & DET). Having said that, Sale has double-digit strikeouts in three of his past four starts. I still have a hard time trusting him in cash, but he’s definitely a tournament option. He’s a bit too expensive for my liking.

Batter Breakdown: Steve Pearce is the loan value bat in Boston’s lineup as he’s had success against lefties in the past. It’s much easier to fit in Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers if you are playing on FanDuel, but the lefty vs lefty matchup isn’t ideal.

Houston Astros (6.3) @ Detroit Tigers (4.3)

Wade Miley (LHP) @ Ryan Carpenter (LHP)

Over/Under: 10.5 Moneyline: DET +185

Pitcher Breakdown: Wade Miley is someone I’m considering due to the matchup against Detroit and the offensive support he’ll likely get. The Tigers’ 28.2 K% against lefties is the sixth-highest and their 26.1 K% overall ranks fourth. Miley doesn’t have a high strikeout rate, but he’s allowed three or fewer runs in all eight of his starts.

Ryan Carpenter doesn’t have a lot of innings on his resume (27.1), but he enters with an 82 percent contact rate for his career. He’s been hit hard 39 percent of the time and has a 42 percent fly ball rate this season.

Batter Breakdown: The Astros have the highest team implied total this evening and they make for a great stack if you can fit them in. It’s certainly easier to do so on FD. Aledmys Diaz is cheap on both sites and worthy of a play. Don’t be surprised if there are three or four home runs from Houston in this game. They are a strong play on the money line.

St. Louis Cardinals (4.7) @ Atlanta Braves (4.4)

Jack Flaherty (RHP) @ Mike Foltynewicz (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: ATL +105

Pitcher Breakdown: Jack Flaherty has been too inconsistent to roll out against a Braves team that doesn’t strike out much. Flaherty has 47 strikeouts in 41.2 innings, but he’s walked seven in his past 10.2 innings. He’s also allowed eight home runs, which makes him a fade.

Mike Foltynewicz has allowed 19 hits, 15 runs, five walks and five homers in his 16.2 innings this season. There’s no way you can consider him against the Cardinals.

Batter Breakdown: Folty will eventually turn it around, but it’s highly unlikely that it’ll be against the Cardinals. St. Louis makes for an underrated stack which may go low-owned. Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna and Jose Martinez is where I’m looking. Martinez and Matt Carpenter check in at a great price on FD.

Los Angeles Angels (4.3) @ Minnesota Twins (4.8)

Cam Bedrosian (RHP) @ Kyle Gibson (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: MIN -132

Pitcher Breakdown: Kyle Gibson has been pretty solid of late, but he’s faced some pretty weak teams along the way. Gibson may be able to do enough for the win, but his K-Rate is much higher than it should be due to his opponents and the Angels have the lowest strikeout rate.

Batter Breakdown: The Twins have seen a spike in their run total as they’ll likely see pitches from fly ball pitcher Felix Pena after Cam Bedrosian does his thing for one or two innings. Jorge Polanco and Eddie Rosario are strong plays. Marwin Gonzalez and Willians Astudillo are basically free on FD.

Texas Rangers (4.7) @ Kansas City Royals (5.4)

Shelby Miller (RHP) @ Danny Duffy (LHP)

Over/Under: 10 Moneyline: KC -141

Pitcher Breakdown: Danny Duffy is someone to consider in tournaments simply because the Rangers enter with the third-highest strikeout rate against LHP (28.4%). They have so many left-handed bats in their lineups as well.

Shelby Miller has failed to complete six innings in any of his starts this season. He has a 19:21 K:BB ratio over his 27.2 innings. He enters with a career-high 85 percent contact rate and has been hit hard 46 percent of the time in 2019.

Batter Breakdown: It’s easier to fit in the Royals on FanDuel, especially when you look at the price of Jorge Soler and Ryan O’Hearn. Whit Merrifield and Hunter Dozier are two bats I don’t mind spending up for. The total has jumped to 10.

Pittsburgh Pirates (4.1) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (5.1)

Joe Musgrove (RHP) @ Luke Weaver (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: ARI -155

Pitcher Breakdown: Joe Musgrove has given up 12 hits, 13 runs and seven walks in his last two outings (5.2 IP). He’s someone to pick on, not roster.

Luke Weaver has allowed one or zero runs in four of his past five starts, which includes an outing against the Pirates where he only gave up one run on six hits over 6.1 innings. In fact, Weaver has allowed three or fewer runs in seven straight starts. PIT ranks 25th in wOBA and 28th in homers.

Batter Breakdown: Left-handed bats have had their way against Musgrove this season. David Peralta is a bit pricey on DK, but he’s very affordable on FD. ARI is a stack to consider on FD.

Toronto Blue Jays (3.6) @ San Francisco Giants (4)

Trent Thornton (RHP) @ Nick Vincent (RHP)

Over/Under: 7.5 Moneyline: SF -121

Pitcher Breakdown: Neither Trent Thornton or Nick Vincent should be on your radar tonight. Vincent will only go an inning or two before turning things over to Tyler Beede. Thornton has an opportunity to rack up a few strikeouts and the Giants don’t have a lot to offer offensively, but it’s not the strongest play. Rostering him on DK will allow you to take a stars and scrub approach, which will also allow you to spend up on bats. The Giants were able to get to Thornton earlier this season.

Batter Breakdown: If the Jays are going to wake up, it’ll be against Beede, who has allowed 19 hits, 17 runs and 13 walks over 12 career innings. The Blue Jays are not a stack to consider, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Randal Grichuk could wake up against Beede.

Oakland Athletics (4.7) @ Seattle Mariners (4.4)

Brett Anderson (LHP) @ Mike Leake (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: SEA +100

Pitcher Breakdown: Neither Brett Anderson nor Mike Leake are strong options. Leake’s 82.4 contact percentage is the fourth-highest among qualified arms and Anderson’s 82.8 percent mark ranks ninth.

Batter Breakdown: Don’t be surprised if this game reaches the total half way through the game. Matt Olson is still underpriced on both sites. Khris Davis has seen his price drop and Jurickson Profar is very affordable and is back in the two spot. Ryon Healy and Tim Beckham have been quiet, but they are easy on the wallet.

San Diego Padres (3.2) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (3.9)

Chris Paddack (RHP) @ Clayton Kershaw (LHP)

Over/Under: 7 Moneyline: LAD -146

Pitcher Breakdown: This is a matchup I’ll likely avoid as it’s hard to project where the win may come from. Both Chris Paddack and Clayton Kershaw will put a dent in your budget, but it’s Kershaw who has the highest ceiling and easier matchup.

Batter Breakdown: This has a low score feel and I’d shy away from all the bats. If I had to chose a side to be contrarian, it would be the Dodgers. Justin Turner remains cheap on FD.

In Case You Missed It:

Best Overall Pitchers: Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard, Caleb Smith & Chris Paddack

Best Value Pitchers: Caleb Smith (FD), Luke Weaver, Wade Miley & Danny Duffy

Pitchers I’m feeling: Noah Syndergaard, Caleb Smith, Clayton Kershaw, Wade Miley & Luke Weaver

Contrarian GPP options: Danny Duffy

Pitcher to fade: Chris Sale

Best Overall Hitters: Jeff McNeil, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, George Springer, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna, Mike Trout, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Whit Merrrifield, David Peralta, Matt Olson, Khris Davis & Mitch Haniger

Best Value Hitters: Lorenzo Cain, Keston Hiura, Robinson Cano, Steve Pearce, Aledmys Diaz, Matt Carpenter, Jorge Soler, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Jurickson Profar, Matt Olson & Ryon Healy

Home Run Call of the Day: Eddie Rosario

Others HR calls to consider: Christian Yelich, Michael Conforto, George Springer, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Paul Goldschmidt, Hunter Dozier, David Peralta, Matt Olson & Khris Davis

Stacks: HOU, NYM, MIN, OAK & SEA

Underrated stacks: STL, KC & ARI

Bet of the Day: HOU -205

Others to consider: OAK/SEA O9, SD/LAD U7, ARI -155, NYM -155

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