MLB Game Breakdown | Monday, May 6th

MLB Game Breakdown | Monday, May 6th

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Boston Red Sox (5.4) @ Baltimore Orioles (4.2)

Josh Smith (RHP) @ John Means (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5 Moneyline: BAL +148

Pitcher Breakdown: Josh Smith only has one inning on the Major League resume this season and tonight will be his first MLB start since he made two in 2016. Smith has made three starts in Triple-A this season, though, and he’s racked up 23 strikeouts in 16.2 innings. Pairing him with a Gerrit Cole will allow you to do some pretty neat things with your lineup. It’s only a play if you tend to make multiple tournament lineups.

Batter Breakdown: John Means has been Baltimore’s best pitcher this season, but he has a 44 percent fly ball rate, which led to two home runs in his last start. The stack is expensive, but they’ve scored at least four runs in seven straight games and they scored a total of 34 in their four-game series with the White Sox. You can stack Mookie Betts with J.D. Martinez if you roster Smith. Rafael Devers has value on FanDuel and is hitting in the five spot tonight.

Minnesota Twins (4.2) @ Toronto Blue Jays (4.4)

Martin Perez (LHP) @ Marcus Stroman (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5 Moneyline: TOR -117

Pitcher Breakdown: It’s hard to feel good about Martin Perez with so many great pitching matchups on the board. Perez is coming off eight shutout innings against the Astros, where he only allowed four hits while striking out seven. He’s allowed one or zero runs in three of his four starts, which includes an outing against the Blue Jays where he struck out five over six innings. Perez is not a huge strikeout guy, but the Blue Jays have the second-highest K-Rate (26.6%) and their .286 wOBA vs LHP ranks 24th.

Marcus Stroman is enjoying a career-high 8.66 K/9, but he’s also walking a career-high 3.51 batters per nine innings. Stroman has walked at least four batters in two of his seven starts and at least two in four straight outings. The Twins have the third-lowest strikeout rate and sixth-highest contact percentage.

Batter Breakdown: Stroman keeps the ball on the ground so I wouldn’t go looking for home runs with the Twins. That said, there’s some value in their with C.J. Cron and Marwin Gonzalez.

Now is the time to get on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. while the ownership is low.

Arizona Diamondbacks (3.1) @ Tampa Bay Rays (4.5)

Merrill Kelly (RHP) @ Blake Snell (LHP)

Over/Under: 7.5 Moneyline: TB -202

Pitcher Breakdown: The Tampa Bay Rays have some strikeouts in their lineup, but Merrill Kelly‘s 10% K-BB ratio is one of the lowest marks in the league. He comes in with a 29:14 K:BB with 11 walks coming over his last three games. He’s also allowed at least one home run in five of his six outings.

I’m sure Blake Snell is thankful not to see KC on the schedule tonight as it’s been a rough go for the Rays’ ace of late. Snell faced KC in his last two starts and he failed to pitch four innings in either outing. Snell allowed 11 hits, nine runs, two homers and five walks in 6.1 innings. He gave up seven runs and three walks his last time out (3 IP). Maybe that will keep the ownership low on what is a good pitching night. I wouldn’t trust Snell in cash right now, but he has tournament winning upside.

Batter Breakdown: The Diamondbacks have won four of their last five games and scored 26 runs in Colorado this weekend. That tends to happen at Coors and I wonder if people will assume a carry over tonight. The early feeling is that more people will be on Snell than the D’backs. Arizona has crushed lefties this season, led by Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar and Nick Ahmed. All three are mainstays in the Arizona breakdowns when they face a lefty, but Snell isn’t your ordinary LHP. It’s the ultimate contrarian play to stack ARI against Snell. I don’t hate it and I think it’s worth a shot in tournaments. Marte has a league-high five homers off southpaws after collecting nine last season. Ahmed and Escobar rank inside the top five in average and top 10 in wOBA vs LHP this season.

Nathaniel Lowe and Avisail Garcia are pretty decent value plays on both sites. Lowe is $2.4K and should definitely be considered in tournaments. The power hasn’t been on display yet, but it’s coming.

Washington Nationals (3.8) @ Milwaukee Brewers (3.8)

Max Scherzer (RHP) @ Jhoulys Chacin (RHP)

Over/Under: 8 Moneyline: MIL -110

Pitcher Breakdown: Max Scherzer is my fade atop the pitching board tonight due to the matchup. He’ll rack up a few strikeouts, but he’s struggled with home runs and this is a solid MLB lineup. Scherzer’s career 43 percent fly ball rate is no place for Milwaukee. He also enters with a career-high 38 percent hard-hit rate. Scherzer’s 47 hits allowed are the fifth most.

Jhoulys Chacin has a 26:18 K:BB ratio over his 34.1 innings this season. He’s not striking anybody out and he enters having allowed seven home runs and 20 earned runs. Chacin has a 47 percent fly ball rate and 43 percent hard-hit rate. I don’t know how he’ll survive the season with numbers like that.

Batter Breakdown: The Nationals have been so disappointing on offense and they’ll go another day without Anthony Rendon. Trea Turner and Juan Soto are also on the IL, so there are not a lot of places to look for offense, even in a great spot. Brian Dozier is hitting a ridiculous .186 this season, but he has five home runs and 43 percent fly ball rate for his career.

Philadelphia Phillies (4.4) @ St. Louis Cardinals (4.7)

Vince Velasquez (RHP) @ Miles Mikolas (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: STL -121

Pitcher Breakdown: The walks finally caught up to Vince Velasquez in his last start as he only lasted three innings against the Tigers. Velasquez issued three walks for the second straight start and third time in four outings. The Cards don’t have a high strikeout rate and they have some heavy hitters in their lineup so Velasquez could be in trouble as he’s allowed a home run in four of his five outings. He also enters with a 44 percent fly ball rate and 41 percent hard-hit rate.

Miles Mikolas has a league-high 85 percent contact rate and he’s already allowed eight home runs. He has 23 punch-outs in 40 innings and he’s allowed 41 hits so far (15th-most). He should rarely be a fantasy option as he’s more of a ratios guy and one that can’t figure it out at the moment.

Batter Breakdown: I’m definitely feeling the over in this game, but I feel stronger about an STL stack. The Phillies offense has let a lot of people down in tournaments and they remain expensive. There’s a chance you could get them with a low ownership this evening. Bryce Harper is someone I would continue to play in tournaments. The price remains high and he’s been bad. I think it’s only a matter of time and you want to be on him while others are not.

The Cardinals stack is much safer and it’s extremely affordable on FD. Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong and Marcell Ozuna are all $4K and under. Jose Martinez is $3K and Yadier Molina is $2.6K.

Miami Marlins (2.7) @ Chicago Cubs (4.4)

Sandy Alcantara (RHP) @ Cole Hamels (LHP)

Over/Under: 7 Moneyline: CHC -268

Pitcher Breakdown: Cole Hamels is the only pitcher to consider in this matchup and he’s a safe cash game option. He already has an outing this season against Miami where he fanned eight over seven scoreless innings.

Batter Breakdown: Sandy Alcantara only has 22 strikeouts in 33.1 innings, and he’s walked 15 batters, which has led to 18 runs. Left-handed hitters have three home runs off him this season, so consider Anthony Rizzo. You can complete the stack with Kris Bryant and Javier Baez.

Kansas City Royals (3) @ Houston Astros (5.1)

Jake Junis (RHP) @ Gerrit Cole (RHP)

Over/Under: 8 Moneyline: HOU -286

Pitcher Breakdown: Jake Junis has a 40 percent hard-hit rate and 80 percent contact rate over 314 innings. The 37 home runs he’s allowed since the start of last season ranks third and he’s given up five this year.

Gerrit Cole is my favorite top priced pitcher on the board tonight. He should have no problem providing strikeouts and out dueling Junis. His team should also give him enough run support for the win.

Batter Breakdown: Alex Bregman had a league-high five home runs last week, with four of them coming over a three-game streak. I’m not going out on a limb here, but he’s my home run call of the day. Honestly, you could pick any of Houston’s first five hitters against Junis. Jose Altuve has value on both sites.

Atlanta Braves (3.6) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (4.5)

Kevin Gausman (RHP) @ Walker Buehler (RHP)

Over/Under: 8 Moneyline: LAD -157

Pitcher Breakdown: This is a pitching matchup I want to stay away from, but if I had to choose a side, it would be Kevin Gausman. The Braves are a team that scares me. They take their walks, don’t strike out and can get to any opposing pitcher.

Batter Breakdown: It’ll be considered contrarian to stack Braves against Walker Buehler, despite his struggles to start the season. Buehler’s strikeouts have been down and he enters wit ha 41 percent hard-hit rate.

New York Mets (3.4) @ San Diego Padres (3.2)

Jacob deGrom (RHP) @ Chris Paddack (RHP)

Over/Under: 6.5 Moneyline: SD -105

Pitcher Breakdown: This is the best pitching matchup on the board tonight as it’s just a matter of which team can score enough runs to help their pitcher get a win. It’s quite possible neither arm gets the run support they need. Jacob deGrom has the highest ceiling as the Padres enter with the highest strikeout rate in the league. Meanwhile, Chris Paddack has yet to allow more than four hits in a start.

Batter Breakdown: It’s hard to imagine rostering any bat in this game as the total has dropped to 6.5. This game has a 2-1 feel to it.

In Case You Missed It:

Best Overall Pitchers: Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer & Blake Snell

Best Value Pitchers: Cole Hamels, Chris Paddack & Josh Smith

Pitchers I’m feeling: Gerrit Cole, Cole Hamels, Chris Paddack & Josh Smith

Contrarian GPP options: Max Scherzer

Pitcher to fade: Max Scherzer

Best Overall Hitters: Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman & Cody Bellinger

Best Value Hitters: Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, Michael Chavis, Nelson Cruz, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Nathaniel Lowe, Ji-Man Choi, Brian Dozier, Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt, Yadier Molina, Jose Martinez, Jose Altuve, Corey Seager & Justin Turner

Home Run Call of the Day: Alex Bregman

Others HR calls to consider: Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna, George Springer & Michael Brantley

Stacks: HOU, BOS, STL, CHC & PHI

Underrated stacks: TB & ATL

Bet of the Day: BOS -161

Others to consider: MIN -112, CHC-2 -130, PHI/STL O 8.5, HOU-2 -140, NYM/SD U 6.5

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