MLB Game Breakdown May 13

MLB Game Breakdown May 13

Milwaukee Brewers (3.8) @ Philadelphia Phillies (4.8)

Freddy Peralta (RHP) vs. Aaron Nola (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5   Moneyline: Phillies -160

Pitcher Breakdown: Peralta and his ol’ fastball get set to take on the Phillies tonight at Citizen Bank Park. He pitched well out of the bullpen in his last appearance so the Brewers will try him again as a starter. Throwing the four-seamer 79% of the time, he’ll face a Phillies team that has not performed well against fastballs, ranking 22nd in the MLB. I’m not sure I want to put my trust into Peralta, but it certainly surprised me to see the Phillies as low as they were.

Nola seems like he’s back on track and Vegas is starting to catch up on that as well, as the Brewers own a 3.8 run projection. He’s been much better at home than he has on the road, sporting a .319 wOBA with a 4.25 xFIP at Citizen Bank Park. The Brewers are in the midst of a cold streak overall and have a .304 wOBA with a .117 ISO and a 25.5 K% over the last seven days.

Hitter Breakdown: Despite the note about the Phillies against the fastball, Peralta still doesn’t exactly have shut down splits to his name. Lefties have given him the most issues since being called up so Bryce Harper and Odubel Herrera make a lot of sense here. Herrera has been hitting well almost the entire season and he’s one of my favorite tournament plays on the cheap. Cesar Hernandez could also be a way to mix up your stack.

Despite pitching better, Nola still has some ugly numbers against lefties on the season. He enters this game with a .423 wOBA with a 5.01 xFIP and four of his eight home runs allowed. I’m not going crazy with any of their bats in this spot but Christan Yelich is always in consideration no matter who is on the mound. Mike Moustakas is the only other bat I would consider using. Moose has been fairly quiet as of late but draws a favorable spot in their order and has good numbers against righties with .371 wOBA and a .298 ISO.

Houston Astros (4.3) @ Detroit Tigers (3.7)

Brad Peacock (RHP) vs. Matt Boyd (LHP)

Over/Under: 8   Moneyline: Astros -135

Pitcher Breakdown: Peacock is going to be a very popular option tonight and for a number of reasons. First and foremost, he’s coming off arguably the best start of his career where he tossed seven innings against the Royals, scattering three hits and striking out 12. He has a tremendous opportunity to build upon that start going against a Tigers team that leads the league in K% against righties at 31.8%. Believe me, Peacock is going to be far from sneaky tonight.

Boyd is in a tough spot because he’s been pitching well overall but draws the tough matchup. Against lefties, the Astros own some of the best numbers in the league with a .362 wOBA, a .201 ISO and just a 22.4 K%. Giving respect to how he’s pitched all season long, Boyd is a tournament option for sure but it certainly comes with a good amount of risk. To his credit, Boyd enters this game with a 31.3 K% and a 3.38 xFIP overall.

Hitter Breakdown:  Boyd is a tough matchup regardless of how you break it down, it’s just that he’ll draw the short end of the stick tonight, in my opinion. The Astros have so many guys that can hit lefties like George SpringerAlex BregmanCarlos Correa, and Robinson Chirinos. If you wanted to stack and mix it up a bit, Yuli Gurriel is on a nice four-game stretch and has posted some impressive numbers against lefties so far. Michael Brantley also has a respectable .189 ISO against lefties.

Can’t say I’m excited for the Tigers in this matchup. Ronny Rodriguez is an interesting name that has been smoking the ball and isn’t that expensive overall. In some twisted way, he sports a .426 wOBA and a .402 ISO against righties so far this season. I’ve used Gordon Beckham in tournaments a few times when I need to save some salary and it hasn’t been that bad, to be honest. Not a favorite target but definitely a way to save some dough.

Los Angeles Angels (3.8) @ Minnesota Twins (4.8)

Tyler Skaggs (LHP) vs. Jose Berrios (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5   Moneyline: Twins -160

Pitcher Breakdown: I want absolutely no part of Skaggs tonight on the road against the Twins. His road numbers are terrible and he currently sports a .381 wOBA with a 4.72 xFIP when all four of his home runs allowed. He’s also allowing a ton of hard contact overall, with opposing batters tagging him at a 43% clip. No thanks!

This is a tough spot for Berrios and one that I think some may overlook. Yes, he’s been great this season and has rarely let us down at any point. However, this is an Angels team that simply doesn’t strike out much. On the year, they have a team 15.1 K% against righties, which is the lowest in the league. Their offensive numbers aren’t bad either with a .344 wOBA and a .197 ISO (were you surprised? I was!). With him being as expensive as he is and Robbie Ray just slightly higher (more on him in a bit), I just don’t see it.

Hitter Breakdown: Truly, take your pick in this spot. I think the only batter I wouldn’t take in this game would be Max Kepler because of the L/L. Aside from that, everyone else feels like they’re in a good spot. Once again, C.J. Cron is one of my favorite options here as well as Jonathan Schoop who can help mix up your stack a bit. The regular crowd includes Mitch Garver, Eddie Rosario and Nelson Cruz (if he’s active).

We had this type of situation over the weekend where I don’t like the matchup for the pitcher, but I’m not actively looking to target against him. This is that situation once again. Sure, if you have the salary for Mike Trout and want to pay up for him, I would never stop you. If you want to ride the Tommy La Stella power train and get a low owned option, do it. Other than that, I’m off the Angels.

Cleveland Indians (4.6) @ Chicago White Sox (4)

Shane Bieber (RHP) vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5   Moneyline: Indians -135

Pitcher Breakdown: The Biebs takes the hill for the eighth time this season and second time against the White Sox. In that last start, which was the last one he’s pitched, he tossed 6 1/3 innings allowing three runs on eight hits while striking out six. This White Sox club has a lot of lefties (or guys capable of hitting lefty) that it really sours me on using Bieber. Since his arrival, Bieber has a career .371 wOBA against lefties with a 4.11 xFIP and a 46% hard-hit rate. I’ll pass here.

Lopez is downright tough to trust and he’s best handled on a game by game basis. It seems like if he’s not facing the Tigers, he’s just not pitching well. To be fair, the Indians are not a good offensive team and enter this game with a .298 wOBA, a .131 ISO and a 22 K% against righties. Lopez didn’t do well against the Indians the last time out but the park shift will help him here today. MAYBE, just MAYBE I’ll sprinkle him into a couple of lineups tonight. Actually, maybe just one. Probably the Quarter Arcade.

Hitter Breakdown:  It’s hard to consider much from the Indians side of things when they just aren’t hitting much. Francisco Lindor was hampered by injury but even he has just a .318 wOBA and a .153 ISO against righties so far. If you really want to punish yourself, I suppose you could use a couple of the lefties in this lineup like Jake Bauers and Mike Freeman.

As always, if you want to go against the Biebs, you do it with lefties. Yoan Moncada and Leury Garcia at the top of the Sox order is a good way to get a quick 1-2 punch. Yonder Alonso, while not hitting well, is a good value play in the cleanup spot, especially when you consider the matchup. If you REALLY want a low owned cheap option, Yolmer Sanchez all the way down the bottom of the lineup has put up decent numbers before but has gotten off to a really sluggish start so far.

Pittsburgh Pirates (3.8) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (4.8)

Nick Kingham (RHP) vs. Robbie Ray (LHP)

Over/Under: 8.5  Moneyline: Diamondbacks -165

Pitcher Breakdown: Kingham makes his second start of the season after starting in the bullpen. I don’t like this spot for him at all as he struggles against lefties. That’s all the D-Backs will throw at him in the heart of their order, which certainly can’t make you feel confident in using him. Since being called up last year, Kingham sports a .408 wOBA against lefties to go with a 5.70 xFIP with 12 of his 20 home runs allowed. Yikes.

Ray should be one of your top options tonight against the league-leaders in K% against lefties. The Pirates overall have been downright awful against lefties and own a team .270 wOBA, and a .102 ISO. Despite their offensive outburst yesterday, I think Ray can keep them in check. Of course, the downfall with Ray is that he throws a ton of pitches and rarely sees past the sixth inning, let alone the fifth. I just like the K upside so much here against a team with a 28.5% mark.

Hitter Breakdown: Very little interest here as I’m locking in Ray across the board. I really wish they would play Elias Diaz more as he’s been fantastic against lefties. He would likely be the only option I would consider in tournaments.

As I mentioned, the heart of this Diamondbacks lineup is left-handed bats, so this is where your focus should be. Ketel Marte, David Peralta and Eduardo Escobar make an expensive three-man stack but all are in a fantastic matchup. Aside from that, Kingham has been good against righties so no one really sticks out other than these three guys.

Oakland Athletics (3.8) @ Seattle Mariners (4.3)

Mike Fiers (RHP) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP)

Over/Under: 8  Moneyline: Mariners -130

Pitcher Breakdown: So we have a pitcher who is coming off a no-hitter and I’m like “meh.” Fiers does this all the time. He reels us in with a couple of good starts and then, when he has our attention, turns into this puddle when everyone uses him. Go look at his game log, you’ll see what I mean. Anyways, not really interested in him tonight. I think the Mariners have hit a bit of wall lately offensively, but I think it’s just a matter of time before they figure it out. Even over the past week where they own a team .300 wOBA, they still have a .198 ISO.

I’m really on the fence about Kikuchi. He’s pitched really well in back-to-back starts but now gets an A’s team that hits lefties well and doesn’t strike out much. They enter this game with a .349 wOBA with a .221 ISO and just a 17.7 K%. Not exactly numbers you want to target against using a starting pitcher. It’s very likely that I won’t have much if any, exposure here. I just wish he wasn’t priced the way he is, as it would make it a lot easier.

Hitter Breakdown: The A’s have some strong bats against lefties and some good power to go with it. Khris Davis isn’t hitting well currently, but his .265 ISO against lefties is currently the highest on the team and by a good margin. Stephen Piscotty is someone I almost ALWAYS roster when he’s facing a lefty. His .337 wOBA and .205 ISO are impressive numbers when you see how cheap he is tonight. Jurikson Profar is a great one-off or an option to mix up your stack a bit.

As I mentioned, the Mariners aren’t crushing the ball right now, but they still have some good options against righties. Edwin Encarnacion is always in the conversation when facing a right-handed bat. J.P. Crawford is a low owned option if you want to punt at shortstop, but his .200 ISO makes him a worthy play. Daniel Vogelbach has been quiet lately but that also means his salary has taken a dip.

Best Overall Pitcher: Robbie Ray

Best Value Pitcher: Brad Peacock,

Best Overall Hitters: David Peralta, George Springer, Bryce Harper, Ketel Marte, Yoan Moncada

Best Value Hitters: C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Yuli Gurriel, Elias Diaz

Home Run Call of the Day: Ketel Marte

Stacks: Twins, Astros, Diamondbacks (lefties),

Bet of the Day:  Astros -135

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