MLB Game Breakdown May 11

MLB Game Breakdown May 11

Miami Marlins (2.5) @ New York Mets (4.1)

Sandy Alcantara (RHP) vs. Jacob deGrom (RHP)

Over/Under: 6.5  Moneyline: Mets -260

Pitcher Breakdown: Alcantara doesn’t offer much from a fantasy perspective. With a K% of just 15.7% and a BB% of 12.2%, we don’t have much to love here. He also has struggled out of the gate against lefties, which isn’t ideal when facing a Mets team that has quite a few of them. With the Marlins sporting a 2.5 run projection, the chances of Alcantara grabbing a win is extremely thin.

deGrom is going to be one of the top options on this slate and for good reason. I mean, when was the last time you checked their overall offensive numbers? Lucky for you, I got my barf bag ready and checked. They enter this game with a .270 wOBA with a .088 ISO against right-handed pitching. Add on the fact that they have a 25.6 K% and I don’t see how you fade deGrom tonight. 

Hitter Breakdown: Imagine taking the Marlins today?

The Mets are completely in play today, especially the lefties. Overall, the Mets have fallen off a bit offensive but you have to like Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil and Robinson Cano in this spot. Peter Alonso would also be an option as he’s posted some stellar numbers against righties. Entering this game, he’s posted a .354 wOBA and a .241 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Philadelphia Phillies (4.9) @ Kansas City Royals (4.2)

Zach Eflin (RHP) vs. Brad Keller (RHP)

Over/Under: 9   Moneyline: Phillies -140

Pitcher Breakdown: I’ve been waiting for Eflin to fall off buttttt it’s yet to happen. He’s been fantastic so far and he’ll look to continue that tonight. The concern here is his struggles against lefties. He enters this game with a .356 wOBA and a 4.95 xFIP with four of his seven home runs allowed. The saving grace for him will be how good he’s been against righties with a .250 wOBA and a 4.48 xFIP. With the Royals lineup dominated by righties, he should be a good option overall.

I’m not interested in Keller in this spot against the Phillies. One of the biggest concerns is his total lack of control. He currently sports a 13.6 BB% and faces a Phillies team that ranks third in the league in BB%. On top of that, his numbers against righties are extremely poor with a .363 wOBA and a 4.44 xFIP. I can’t imagine this going well for Keller and he should be once again having issues with putting men on base.

Hitter Breakdown: If you want to go after Eflin, with likely low ownership, I think lefties are the way to go. Adalberto Mondesi, Alex Gordon and Ryan O’Hearn would be the three options to take in this spot. O’Hearn is really interesting because he’ll help you save some salary and his .207 ISO against righties doesn’t hurt. As always, Billy Hamilton is a total boom-or-bust option at the bottom of the order but has the ability to swipe a few bags on any given day.

Stacking the Phillies is one of my favorite plays on this slate. Surprisingly, the Phillies don’t possess a ton of power against righties, as only three players have an ISO over .200. Those players would be Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco and Bryce Harper. Even still, I have no issues taking the four or five man stack depending on what site you’re playing on. With the Phillies just under the five-run team total, I don’t expect this stack to be a sneaky one by any means.

Atlanta Braves (4.9) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (4.7)

Kevin Gausman (RHP) vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5   Moneyline: Braves -114

Pitcher Breakdown: This won’t be a game I’ll be looking toward for pitching options. Gausman has been having quite a rough time as of late when he’s not getting tossed for throwing at people. Over his last four starts, Gausman has allowed 14 runs on 21 hits with an 18:9 K:BB ratio. Gausman has also been lit up on the road, posting a .402 wOBA.

Kelly is another option I’m not looking toward tonight going against the Braves. To his credit, Kelly has pitched well at home but this is a dangerous Braves club he has to face. Kelly has had issues with home runs, posting an HR/9 of 1.6. I just don’t trust him in this spot going against a team with a total just under five.

Hitter Breakdown: Hitters are a different story in this game. When you look at the Braves, we have a number of options to consider in this game. Interestingly enough, the Braves have a good amount of power on the cheap with guys like Tyler Flowers, Dansby Swanson and Nick Markakis all sporting an ISO over .200 against righties. Going lower in the order to stack these guys would really make a really unique construction.

As for the Diamondbacks, a couple of names that stand out for this matchup include Christian Walker, David Peralta and Ketel Marte. These are expensive options but I don’t imagine the ownership will be that high seeing that top pitching options and Coors Field dominating the slate. I think the D-Backs would make for an excellent tournament stack.

 

Texas Rangers (3) @ Houston Astros (5.6)

Jesse Chavez (RHP) vs. Gerrit Cole (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5   Moneyline: Astros -315

Pitcher Breakdown: Chavez is serving as the opener for this game so he’s not a viable option by any means. Once he’s out, it’s expected the Drew Smyly will take over the bulk of the innings. With that in mind, make sure you’re researching your hitters against lefties instead of righties. Smyly is posting a very high K% at 26.7 but is also allowing a 13.3 BB% and a 58.5% hard-hit rate.

Cole will likely be the second most popular option tonight aside from Jacob deGrom. Cole hasn’t been perfect and has allowed 23 runs through 49 2/3 innings. However, his strikeout upside remains at an elite level and currently sports a ridiculous 37.2 K%. With the Rangers sporting a 23.5 K%, which ranks 11th in the league, Cole has the potential to post another monster performance.

Hitter Breakdown:  Targeting against Cole isn’t a matchup you’re looking to get yourself into. However, I did mention he hasn’t been perfect by any means. He has allowed eight home runs on the year, splitting them evenly between righties and lefties. Joey Gallo is certainly a tournament target and one that I’ll be looking to get some exposure to with expected ownership of next to nothing.

The Astros against the (likely) lefty starter is a matchup you want some pieces of. Of course, George Springer would be the top option here as he’s raking with a .486 wOBA and a .419 ISO against lefties. A couple of potentially overlooked options would be Robinson Chirinos and Yuli Gurriel. Of the two, Gurriel would be the one that I think gets less attention, which is surprising, figuring he’s posted an early .402 wOBA and .222 ISO against lefties. With how poor the Rangers bullpen has been overall, stacking the Astros is always an optimal strategy.

San Diego Padres (5) @ Colorado Rockies (5.7)

Joey Luchessi (LHP) vs. Jon Gray (RHP)

Over/Under: 10.5   Moneyline: Rockies -132

Pitcher Breakdown: I just can’t trust a lefty pitcher taking the mound against the Rockies at Coors Field. Right-handed bats have hit him hard overall and he enters this game with a .361 wOBA, a 4.21 xFIP and three of the four home runs he’s allowed. For what it’s worth, the Rockies have seen a significant drop in their team total, as of this writing has gone down to 5.2 runs. I still think the Rockies are in a great position in this game and it hasn’t really changed my stance on Lucchesi.

Gray is one of the better “cheaper” options if you’re not looking to go with the top three guys OR if you’re going to make him an SP2 on DK. The Padres have not been a strong team overall against righties and currently have a .291 wOBA with a .175 ISO. They also own one of the highest K% in the league at 25.6%, which I think helps make Gray an excellent tournament option.

Hitter Breakdown:  I like using Gray a lot more than I would consider using bats from the Padres. They certainly have a couple of options to consider, headlined by Hunter Renfroe. Usually reserved as a play against lefties, Renfroe enters this game with a .364 wOBA and a .341 ISO against righties. Ty France is a cheaper option to consider and his small sample size shows him with a .444 wOBA and a .250 ISO.

The Rockies always have a plethora of options to consider when they’re matched up against lefties. The most obvious are Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story.If you have to pick between the two, Arenado would be the top option as he’s just absolutely crushing the ball right now. Over his last 10 games, Arenado has hit four home runs, three doubles and knocked in 12. A couple of cheaper options I’m really digging is Chris Iannetta and Ian Desmond. Stacking Arenado, Iannetta and Desmond is quite cost efficient and gets you some really good exposure to their lineup.

Detroit Tigers (4) @ Minnesota Twins (5.6)

Gregory Soto (LHP) vs. Kohl Stewart (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5   Moneyline: Twins -185

Pitcher Breakdown: Soto will make his major league debut tonight and gets tossed to the wolves by facing the Twins. He’s never pitched higher than Double-A and has made three starts this season. This is a really tough spot to utilize him even with the really low salary he brings. The Twins have mashed against opposing lefties with a .347 wOBA and a .215 ISO.

I expect Stewart to draw some interest solely based off his matchup. His strikeout upside is a bit limited but he does face the team with the highest K% in the league against righties at 27%. He primarily relies on a sinking fastball and a slider, both of which the Tigers have not done well against. I wouldn’t be using him in cash games but I think he makes for an interesting tournament play.

Hitter Breakdown: Ronny Rodriguez has kind of come out of nowhere and is hitting for some really good power. He enters this game with a .356 ISO, which currently is the highest on the team. His salary hasn’t completely caught up with his recent production either which makes him an option to consider. Aside from Rodriguez, I’m mostly off the Tigers bats.

The Twins have a number of players we can consider going against the lefty. It almost feels like everyone in this lineup is hitting for power so you can’t really go wrong here. Two names I want to point out though are C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop. Both have gotten off to really good starts against lefties and boast a .429 and .333 ISO respectively. Schoop was a REALLY good hitter against lefties two years ago but fell off a bit last year. If he can reclaim that again, he’ll be such a force lower in the order. Nelson Cruz is always an option against lefties but looks as if he’s in a bit of a slump currently. His high salary has me a bit gun shy.

Cincinnati Reds (3.9) @ San Francisco Giants (3.6)

Anthony DeSclafani (RHP) vs. Jeff Samardzija (RHP)

Over/Under: 7.5   Moneyline: Reds -120

Pitcher Breakdown: DeSclafani has been really good this year. He’s allowed no more than three runs in four straight starts now while striking out at least six. He still has some issues against lefties, who have tagged him with a .386 wOBA with a 5.76 xFIP but it’s not enough for me to write him off. If you’re looking for a higher priced pitching option that isn’t one of the big three, I think this is your guy for tonight.

I never, ever use Samardzija. He’s on the same level as Rich Hill for me and you’ll never see him in a lineup of mine. Granted, I could see the appeal going against the Reds in a pitchers park but I just can’t do it. To his credit, he does have some good overall numbers but the 5.14 xFIP against righties is going to rear its ugly head at some point. Tournament option only.

Hitter Breakdown: As I mentioned, DeSclafani continues to see his struggles against lefties. Joe Panik is one of my favorite value plays overall on this slate hitting atop the Giants lineup. That narrative is pushed even further seeing how he’s been hitting well as of late. Over his last 10 games, he’s hit a home run, two doubles and knocked in six. Getting him as cheap as he is, feels like a steal. If Brandon Belt is active, he’d be another cheap option to consider. If he’s out, it would make be like DeSclafani even more.

The Reds feel like they should be a lot better than they are but they simply can’t put it together. Derek Dietrich would be my favorite option overall on the Reds followed be Jesse Winker. It’s such a weird scenario where I want no part of Samardzija but I’m not crazy about the bats that he’s facing. Honestly, don’t agonize over this on an eight-game slate.

Washington Nationals (3.1) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (3.5)

Max Scherzer (RHP) vs. Walker Buehler (RHP)

Over/Under: 6.5   Moneyline: Dodgers -133

Pitcher Breakdown:  Let’s face it, Scherzer has not been the dominant pitcher we turn to whenever he takes the mound. Of his eight starts, he’s allowed three or more run in four of them. His strikeouts are good, his walks are minimal but he just seems to be getting BABIP to death. Lefties have really given him trouble and he enters this game with a .363 wOBA and a 37% hard-hit rate against them. It could come down eventually seeing how his xFIP sits at a 3.79 but it’s still eye-opening nonetheless. With the options surrounding him in terms of salary, Scherzer is not near the top of my list tonight.

Buehler is another pitcher that has had a rough go to start the year. Unlike Scherzer, Buehler is seeing a dip in his strikeouts and is allowing a 44% hard-hit rate. With that in mind, a Juan Soto-less Nationals team is vulnerable to right-handed pitching. Currently, they own a team .284 wOBA with a .130 ISO and a 24.7 K%. I think this is a really intriguing spot for him.

Hitter Breakdown: I’ll be focusing on the lefty bats of the Dodgers here and see if they can crack Scherzer. Looking at this Dodgers team, you can take your pick of Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson and Max Muncy if you’re looking for power bats at low ownership. Alex Verdugo would be a cheap option to save some salary batting from the left side as well. Aside from the lefties, I have almost no interest in the rest.

I don’t have much interest in the Nats tonight. Anthony Rendon and Howie Kendrick would be the only two I would consider and even then the shares I’d have would be low. This team simply doesn’t hit for power against righties so the upside here I feel is very minimal. I’m much more interested in getting Buehler in this spot.

Best Overall Pitcher: Jacob deGrom

Best Value Pitcher: Jon Gray

Best Overall Hitters: Nolan Arenado, Alex Gordon, George Springer, Rhys Hoskins,

Best Value Hitters: C.J. Cron, Joe Panik, Joc Pederson, Ian Desmond

Home Run Call of the Day: George Springer

Stacks: Phillies, Rockies, Twins, Dodgers (LHB)

Bet of the Day:  Phillies -140

 

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