MLB Game Breakdown | Friday, April 12th

MLB Game Breakdown | Friday, April 12th

Pittsburgh Pirates (3.4) @ Washington Nationals (4.7)

Trevor Williams (RHP) @ Patrick Corbin (LHP)

Over/Under: 8  Moneyline: Nationals -190

Pitcher Breakdown: Trevor Williams has been pretty solid in his two MLB starts this season (both against Cincinnati), but he gets a Washington team tonight that has scored 40 runs in their last four games. Williams is a better real-life pitcher than a fantasy one due to his low strikeout rate.

For the first time this season, Patrick Corbin will face someone other than the Mets. Corbin allowed five runs in his two outings against them, but he racked up 13 strikeouts in 12 innings. I’ll give him the edge of Carlos Carrasco, due to the price savings and offensive support his team can provide.

Batter Breakdown: The Pirates have one of the lowest team implied totals today and for good reason. They rank 23rd in runs scored and their .214 average against left-handed pitchers ranks 25th.

Anthony Rendon is leading the way for the Nationals as he’s hitting .429 on the season. He enters with a 10-game hit streak in which he has seven multi-hit games over that span. Brian Dozier, Ryan Zimmerman and Yan Gomes have cheap price tags on FanDuel.

Chicago White Sox (4.1) @ New York Yankees (6)

Lucas Giolito (RHP) @ J.A. Happ (LHP)

Over/Under: 10   Moneyline: Yankees-225

Pitcher Breakdown: Lucas Giolito has surrendered nine hits, seven runs and five walks in his 11 innings this season. He’s only given up one homer, but his competition hasn’t been tough. He allowed 27 last season and 43 over 251 career innings. He also enters with a 4.27 BB/9 for his career.

J.A. Happ struggled in his first two starts of the season, which was surprising because he played the Orioles in both outings. Happ has allowed three home runs, three walks and six runs in 8.1 innings. The White Sox’s 26 percent strikeout rate ranks sixth and they are striking out 27 percent of the time against LHP.

Batter Breakdown: I’m a believer in Happ tonight, but if you want to go against the grain, Tim Anderson is a bit cheaper on the FanDuel side. He has a .316 average for his career against southpaws. Small sample size in 2019, but he’s hitting .636 against LHP so far.

There’s a bit of value in the middle of the Yankees’ lineup with guys like Luke Voit and Greg Bird. Aaron Judge will put a dent in your wallet, but Giolito struggles to keep the ball in the park.

Tampa Bay Rays (4.7) @ Toronto Blue Jays (3.9)

Ryne Stanek (RHP) @ Trent Thornton (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5     Moneyline: Blue Jays+131

Pitcher Breakdown: Ryne Stanek is scheduled to make his third start of the season, but he hasn’t gone more than two innings in any of his outings. Expect Ryan Yarbrough to replace him at some point.

Trent Thornton has been very impressive in his two starts as he’s racked up 15 strikeouts over 10.2 innings. Thornton has only allowed five hits and two earned runs over that span. The Rays’ bats have been solid and I like them on the money line, but if you’re looking for a cheap GPP pitcher, Thornton is in play. Tampa Bay’s 26.1 strikeout rate is tied for the sixth-highest mark.

Batter Breakdown: Austin Meadows is 7 for his last 10 with two home runs and seven RBI. He’s been hitting leadoff against RHP this season. Avisail Garcia has eight hits, a home run and four RBI in his last three games. Both have very reasonable price tags.

Rowdy Tellez‘s power has certainly been on display, but he’ll likely see lefty Yarbrough at some point which isn’t great for his outlook. Even still, his price tag is very cheap, especially on the FanDuel side of things. Freddy Galvis is the hottest hitter in Toronto’s lineup as he enters with a .395 average and .435 OBP. He has 11 total hits over a current six-game hit streak.

Philadelphia Phillies (4.8) @ Miami Marlins (3.8)

Jake Arrieta (RHP) @ Sandy Alcantara (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5   Moneyline: Marlins+140

Pitcher Breakdown: Jake Arrieta will probably get you a win if you want to chase one, but his ceiling isn’t that high. Arrieta has walked nine batters through 13 innings this season. He only has seven punch-outs and has served up two homers. The matchup against Miami is strong, but Arrieta hasn’t missed many bats this season (86.6 contact percentage).

We’ve seen two sides of Sandy Alcantara so far this season. In his first start against Colorado, Alcantara tossed eight scoreless innings while striking out six. In his second start which came in Atlanta, he walked five batters and only lasted four innings. He failed to pick up a strikeout. He has K potential, but his command is still in question. He has a 5.64 BB/9 over 54.1 innings. The Phillies are not a team you want to be handing out free passes to.

Batter Breakdown: Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura are really the only bats in Philadelphia’s lineup that won’t cost you much. If you’re going to roster both, you might as well complete the stack with Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins. J.T. Realmuto revenge game? His price on FanDuel is nice.

As mentioned, Arrieta has allowed a lot of contact to start 2019, so Brian Anderson and Starlin Castro come to mind, but the ceiling isn’t high.

Baltimore Orioles (3.9) @ Boston Red Sox (6.2)

David Hess (RHP) @ Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)

Over/Under: 10 Moneyline: Red Sox-250

Pitcher Breakdown: David Hess coughed up three home runs in his last outing, which brought his career total to 25 through 116.2 innings. He has a 48.2 fly ball rate for his career and a 65.6 mark so far this season. He also has an 82.3 contact percentage for his career.

Eduardo Rodriguez has been awful in his two starts: 16 hits, 6 walks, 2 HR and 11 runs. They were two tough outings, though, against Seattle and Oakland. Tonight is a good opportunity to jump all over E-Rod who may come with a low ownership due to his recent struggles. There’s definitely a good chance at a W should he get through five innings.

Batter Breakdown: Trey Mancini and Jonathan Villar have the highest ceilings in this Baltimore offense, but Dwight Smith Jr. is starting to rend up. He’s hitting .280 on the season thanks to hits in eight of his last 10 games.

The Red Sox may have broke out of their slump last night as they came from behind and walked-off on the Blue Jays. They are in a very good spot tonight with the highest team implied total on the slate. It was 5.7 last night and has jumped up to 6.2. Andrew Benintendi is big time cheap on FD as is Rafael Devers who delivered the winning hit last night. Mitch Moreland has a home run in four straight starts.

New York Mets (4.7) @ Atlanta Braves (4.9)

Zack Wheeler (RHP) @ Kyle Wright (RHP)

Over/Under: 9.5 Moneyline: Braves-120

Pitcher Breakdown: Zack Wheeler has issued eight walks, 10 hits and 11 runs over his first two starts (9.2 IP). Both of those outings came against the Washington Nationals, but I’m not ready to go all in with a showing against the Braves. Consider Wheeler as a GPP contrarian play only, and a risky one at that. Wheeler walked four and gave up six runs on eight hits in his only start in Atlanta last season.

Kyle Wright definitely has potential to be an MLB DFS stud this season, but like most young pitchers, his command has been an issue. He’s walked 13 batters over 16.1 innings dating back to last season. Wright walked five in his season opener and he’s allowed three home runs through 10.1 innings this season.

Batter Breakdown: Pete Alonso is out of today’s lineup, so a Mets stack isn’t as interesting, but they’ll be low owned again. There are some value bats in their lineup, including Robinson Cano, Wilson Ramos and Amed Rosario.

Ender Inciarte atop the Atlanta lineup stands out as a value as does Nick Markakis and Ozzie Albies, especially on the FanDuel side. Josh Donaldson has struggled all season, but it’s only a matter of time before he gets going. Consider him in tournaments.

Oakland Athletics (5.8) @ Texas Rangers (5.3)

Mike Fiers (RHP) @ Drew Smyly (LHP)

Over/Under: 11 Moneyline: Rangers+11-

Pitcher Breakdown: Mike Fiers has had two strong showings this season and two very bad showings. He’s allowed 17 hits, 11 runs, two homers and nine walks in 16.2 innings. The home runs are not a surprise as he’s given up 32 in each of his last two seasons. His 43 percent fly ball rate is right on par with last season’s mark. He’s also been hit hard this year (41.8%).

Drew Smyly has failed to make it out of the third inning this season. He’s given up 10 hits, five runs, two homers and five walks in just 6.1 innings. He checks in with a 43.5 fly ball rate and a 56.6 hard hit percentage. Smyly is pitching for the first time since the 2016 season which saw him serve up a total of 32 home runs.

Batter Breakdown: There’s going to be some runs scored in this game, so you should probably get a piece of both sides. Marcus Semien is hitting .346 against lefties this season and .271 for his career. Khris Davis and Joey Gallo are two prime home run candidates. Kendrys Morales remains cheap and he went deep last night, and Rougned Odor is extremely affordable on both sites. He’s struggled this season, but he’s in a great spot against Fiers to break out of that slump. He’s way too cheap to pass up as both teams are projected to scored 5 runs.

*There has been a ton of line movement in this game, so be sure to check out out MLB Line Movement tool.

Cleveland Indians (4.2) @ Kansas City Royals (3.4)

Carlos Carrasco (RHP) @ Brad Keller (RHP)

Over/Under: 7.5 Moneyline: Royals+135

Pitcher Breakdown: Carlos Carrasco has a plus matchup in Kansas City and he’s the most expensive pitcher on the board. He has 16 strikeouts in 9.1 innings this season, but he’s allowed eight runs along the way. He’s a fine option in cash games, but Cleveland’s lack of offense makes him a fade for me in tournaments.

Brad Keller had a great first start, but he’s been shaky in his last two showings. Keller has issued eight walks on the season, and seven in his last two outings. He has a very low fantasy ceiling, even against the highest strikeout team in the Majors.

Batter Breakdown: The Cleveland bats continue to be underwhelming this season and I don’t see much changing. Jose Ramirez is only hitting .136 on the season which has resulted in a $3.4K tag on FanDuel. It may be time to start playing him in tournaments.

There really isn’t much to see here in KC. Whit Merrifield is always a strong option, but his projection takes a hit tonight against Carrasco. The Indians’ pitcher has allowed two home runs this season, and Jorge Soler has bombs in back-to-back games, if you’re looking to be creative. Ceiling is low, though.

San Diego Padres (4.5) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (4.1)

Chris Paddack (RHP) @ Luke Weaver (RHP)

Over/Under: 8.5   Moneyline: Diamondbacks+105

Pitcher Breakdown: Chris Paddack has all the tools to be a stud in this league, but it may take some time. He has 11 strikeouts through 8.2 innings, but he has walked five, which is something he didn’t do a whole lot of in the minors. Paddack is a bit too expensive for my liking on DraftKings as he’s much more of a value on FanDuel. The Padres’ pitcher has yet to pitch into the sixth innings this season.

Luke Weaver struggled with walks and home runs last season, and not much has changed for him in 2019. Weaver has issued four free passes and one home run in his two outings. He’s allowed 11 hits and eight runs through 9.1 innings. He’s also been hit hard 53 percent of the time.

Batter Breakdown: Ian Kinsler and Eric Hosmer have both been very quiet this season, which has resulted in a decline in price. Neither have a ton of home run potential, but they are in good spots to get on base. Hunter Renfroe has four home runs this season to go along with a .289 average.

The Diamondbacks may make for an underrated GPP stack because of all the love Paddack has generated in the fantasy community. Eduardo Escobar finally broke out of a slump last night, if you want to attack Arizona’s 3-4-5 with him, David Peralta and Adam Jones.

Milwaukee Brewers (3.6) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (4.4)

Corbin Burnes (RHP) @ Julio Urias (LHP)

Over/Under: Moneyline: Dodgers-148

Pitcher Breakdown: Corbin Burnes may only be a GPP option only this season, but he’s one you should consider at all times. Burnes has a ridiculous 18 strikeouts in 10 innings this season. On the flip side, he’s allowed 12 hits, 11 runs, six homers and four walks. The Dodgers have the third-lowest strikeout rate, third-highest walk rate, and they have the third-most home runs. Burnes may be in trouble.

Like Burnes, Julio Urias has a high strikeout ceiling too, but his walk rate is also concerning. Urias has nine strikeouts in 8.2 innings, but he has four walks. He’s failed to pitch into the sixth inning this season and has a tough matchup tonight.

Batter Breakdown: Lorenzo Cain and Ryan Braun are always strong options against LHP. Jesus Aguilar has struggled all season but is projected to hit cleanup for the Brewers tonight and he had nine homers with a .282 average against lefties last season.

Joc Pederson has pop in his bat and should leadoff for the Dodgers this evening. Pederson, Justin Turner, A.J. Pollock and Corey Seager make for a strong LAD stack against Burnes. Keep an eye on Seager’s status as he’s questionable to play.

Houston Astros (4.9) @ Seattle Mariners (4.2)

Wade Miley (LHP) @ Wade LeBlanc (LHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: Mariners+128

Pitcher Breakdown: Wide Miley is a much better real-life pitcher than he is a fantasy pitcher. I can almost guarantee nobody will be thinking about him tonight as he faces the hottest team in baseball. Miley only has a 6.17 K/9 this season and it was lower last year (6.17), but he had a 2.57 ERA over 80.2 innings with Milwaukee in 2018. He also keeps the ball on the ground: 52 percent GB rate last year and 59 percent this season. There’s a reason the heavy hitting Mariners only have a 4.2 team implied total tonight.

Wade LeBlanc has allowed eight hits, six runs and four walks in 11.1 innings this season. He had a sub  ERA last season, but he enters with an 80.9 contact percentage and 41.6 fly ball rate for his career. LeBlanc allowed 24 home runs over 162 innings last season.

Batter Breakdown: Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley and Carlos Correa have been values for much of the season. All three have been feeling it of late, so get them now for cheap while you can. Alex Bregman is $3.6 on FanDuel, which is an absolute steal if he gets in the lineup tonight (hamstring).

It’s hard to fade any of these Seattle bats as they keep breaking MLB records with each day that passes by. Mitch Haniger is very appealing as he hits atop of the lineup, but don’t be surprised if Miley limits the damage. Consider fading this lineup in tournaments.

Colorado Rockies (3.7) @ San Francisco Giants (4.4)

Chad Bettis (RHP) @ Drew Pomeranz (LHP)

Over/Under: Moneyline: Giants-143

Pitcher Breakdown: Chad Bettis checks into this game with a career 6.5 K/9, 3.22 BB/9 and 5.12 ERA. Pitching in SF is much better for his game than pitching at Colorado, but the ceiling is extremely low, even with a matchup against the Giants.

Drew Pomeranz has the ability to rack up K’s, but he’s too expensive on the DK side and he doesn’t make for a strong option on FD where you only roster one pitcher. He’s an option on the late slate, but the Rockies have some hitters who mash lefties.

Batter Breakdown: The Rockies have been underwhelming this season and they were shutout last night. Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story are the only two Colorado bats I would touch from this roster right now.

I’m not completely sure what has gotten into Kevin Pillar lately, but I’m not buying it. He has a home run in three of his last four games and 10 RBI over that span. Again, if you’re playing the late slate…sure. Otherwise, he’s a fade.

In Case You Missed It:

Best Overall Pitcher: Patrick Corbin

Best Value Pitcher: Trent Thornton & Drew Pomeranz (FD)

Pitchers I’m feeling: Patrick Corbin, Eduardo Rodriguez & J.A. Happ

Pitchers I’m fading: Carlos Carrasco & Chris Paddack

Best Overall Hitters: Anthony Rendon, Rhys Hoskins, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Aaron Judge

Best Value Hitters: Andrew Benintendi, Rougned Odor, Jose Ramirez (FD), Jesus Aguilar, Justin Turner & Alex Bregman (FD)

Home Run Call of the Day: Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, Khris Davis & Rougned Odor

Stacks: Red Sox, Athletics, Rangers, Dodgers, Yankees, Astros & Braves

Bet of the Day: Phillies-160

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