MLB DFS Pitching Preview – Value Hunting Today – The Quant Edge

MLB DFS Pitching Preview – Value Hunting Today – The Quant Edge

We have seven games on the early slate and five games on the main slate that we need to take a look at for our MLB DFS pitching options. There aren’t many studs to pay up for today, so let’s see what cheaper options we can trust.

Early Slate

Pitchers to Use

Luis Castillo

I probably won’t end up here myself, but if you come across a cheap stack and have the salary for a high priced arm, Castillo is who I would roll with. The matchup isn’t ideal against the Brewers, but he sports a 29% K rate, 57% ground ball rate, whip of 1.11 and xFIP of 3.65.

The issue with Castillo this year is he is walking 12.4% of batters. Giving teams free base runners is not ideal when you are paying a premium for a pitcher.

Tommy Milone

Milone has the second best SIERA on the slate behind Paddack at 3.66. He has pitched extremely well this year, and the Orioles are probably the weakest team he will have faced. I don’t think any of the high priced pitchers on this slate are worth jamming in, so it starts with Milone for me.

To go with his SIERA, he also has a 25% K rate and only a 4% walk rate, leading to a whip of 0.89. He could give up a homer, as he has allowed 1.3 HR/9, but even if he does, he is priced to where that wouldn’t matter on this slate.

Aaron Civale

Civale hasn’t really been a big strikeout guy throughout the minors, so I think his 32% K rate across only 10 innings at AAA this year is a little misleading. However, what he has been consistent at is run prevention and high ground ball rates.

His FIP at each level has been low to mid 3s. His ground ball rates hover around 50%. He also doesn’t walk many guys. Pair that with the fact that he is facing a Tigers team that is not very dangerous against right handed pitching and you have a decent spot to take a shot on a young arm.

Pitchers to Pick On

Blue Jays Bullpen

Nick Kingham is getting the start here, but it should be a bullpen game overall. The Blue Jays pen is one that we can attack, and the good arms blew a multiple run lead last night. The Red Sox are returning to last year’s form, and they are a team we can load up here.

Jhoulys Chacin

Chacin has been bad against both sides of the plate this year. Overall, he is allowing 1.7 HR/9, only 18% K rate, 11% walk rate, 1.5 whip, only 34% ground balls, 43% hard contact and a 5.5 SIERA. The Reds just scored double digits last night and are swinging the bat well right now.

Brian Johnson

Speaking of hot streaks, the Blue Jays are swinging the bat well right now, especially against lefties. They have hit around Heaney and Sale in the past couple nights. Johnson is not even close to the talent of those two guys. He is allowing 3 HR/9, only 18% K rate, 12% walk rate, a 5.3 SIERA, 2.6 whip and 51% hard contact. These numbers are really bad.

Chris Archer

This is another spot where an offense has been swinging the bat really well with the Padres. Archer has been pretty bad this year, even against righties, which he will mostly face. To righties he is allowing 1.9 HR/9, 1.6 whip, 4.75 xFIP and 42% hard contact.

Main Slate

Pitchers to Use

Lance Lynn

Lynn has quietly been one of the most improved arms this season. His SIERA sits at 3.87, has a 26% K rate, only a 6% walk rate, whip of 1.29, and is only allowing 0.77 HR/9.

The ballpark is not ideal as he has a higher ERA at home, but a lot of that damage came early in the year. He has dominated recently scoring 19 or more DK points in nine of his last ten starts, four of which came at home.

I side with Lynn over Ryu because of strikeout ability. Ryu is only striking out 22% of hitters. So he has to have a clean outing in runs allowed to be worth paying top dollar for while Lynn provides salary savings.

Anibal Sanchez

The Braves sometimes tend to go right handed heavy. If they do that here, I have interest in Anibal. To righties, he is allowing 0.23 HR/9, 20.4% K rate, 1.15 whip, and only 28% hard contact.

He also had success against Atlanta in his last start against them on 6IP, 1H, 0ER and 7Ks.

Pete Lambert

This is how thin pitching is on this slate, that we have to consider Lambert against the Dodgers. However, Lambert has shown some decent upside against the lefties he has faced. He is striking out 36% of lefties, though it is only a 22 hitter sample size. He is also a big ground ball guy allowing over 50% ground balls to both sides of the plate.

This isn’t a ringing endorsement for Lambert against the Dodgers. It is more so we don’t have many options to choose from and if you need a punt option, he is who I would choose. If you do use him, make sure to have a hedge Dodgers stack on a second team.

Pitchers to Pick On

Wade Miley

The Yankees are getting healthy right now and while they have struggled against lefties this year, they now have Edwin, Stanton and Judge in the lineup which should boost their numbers vs lefties.

Mike Foltynewicz

Folty has gotten better over his last couple starts, but he is still someone we want to pick on. He is allowing 2.4 HR/9, 44% hard contact, only 37% ground balls and has a SIERA of 4.8.

Odrisamer Despaigne

Despaigne just isn’t good. He has given up 10ER across two starts now. The one thing he does well is keep the ball in the park due to his higher ground ball rates, but that isn’t enough for me to get off the Rangers here.

Tyler Beede

Beeded has been better his last couple starts, but he is still a guy we want to full stack against. Part of this is due to his propensity to walk everyone given his 16% walk rate. He is also allowing 1.9 HR/9, with a 1.9 whip and a 5.3 SIERA.