MLB DFS Pitching Preview – Is the Price Right? – The Quant Edge

MLB DFS Pitching Preview – Is the Price Right? – The Quant Edge

We are back with another full MLB DFS pitching slate to go through. Is David Price one of the top arms we can consider on this full slate? Let’s find out.

Pitchers to Use

David Price

Price has quietly been very good this year. He sports the second lowest SIERA on the slate, only behind Boyd, at 3.54 and has a 28% K rate. The nice thing about Price here is he isn’t really priced up too high on either site. We are getting one of the best arms on the slate at a bit of a discount in a decent matchup. I don’t think you need to force in Price here, but if you want to pay up for an arm, he is the highest I would go today.

Zac Gallen

This kid is a stud, and I have massive interest in him at his price, regardless of matchup. He gets the Nats here who hit lefties a lot better than they hit righties. Through two starts, Gallen has a 3.6 SIERA and a 33% K rate.

One of those two starts came against the Nats as well. He ended up being charged with 3ER but the bullpen actually came in with two runners on and allowed two of those to score.

Gallen has good K rates at every level he has pitched at and he is a really good young arm with a bright future. I have interest here.

Jack Flaherty

Flaherty continues to be underpriced and I continue to play him. Yes, he just got blown up by the A’s, but that doesn’t bother me. He is a very talented young arm with good K upside. Here, he gets a matchup with a watered down Mariners lineup that has five hitters with a K rate over 24% against righties.

Flaherty has a respectable 4.06 SIERA and a 26% K rate. He is just too cheap for his talent and upside.

Matt Strahm

With all of these midrange options available, I think you can get away with using two of them and avoiding a top priced arm. Strahm has actually been pretty solid this year. He sports a 4.29 SIERA with a 22% K rate. He may not have the upside that Flaherty and Gallen have, but he is a pretty safe bet to not get blown up here by the Giants. The other nice thing about Strahm is he doesn’t walk anyone. He has a 5% walk rate on the year.

Joe Musgrove (DK only)

I feel like DK is just never going to price up Musgrove. He continues to be under $6K and he is a semi-talented arm. He doesn’t really strike out a ton of guys, but he has really good control and is good at limiting damage. He does have a 4.5 SIERA and a 19% K rate, so the upside here isn’t very high against a tough Cubs team, but his price allows you to fit in bats if that is the route you want to go. He already faced the Cubs once this year in Chicago and went 6 1/3 IP, 0ER and 6Ks. You could do way worse for $5,900.

Pitchers to Pick On

Chase Anderson

Anderson has reverse splits, so we want to target some of the righties here. To righties, he is allowing 2.05 HR/9, a 1.9 WHIP and 48% hard contact.

However, he has really been hittable by both sides of the plate. Pitching in the small Cinci park is a good spot to load up bats and the Reds just knocked him around his last time out.

Asher Wojciechowski

Try spelling that without looking at the answer key. If you follow the NBA, you know all about ‘Woj bombs’ and that is exactly what we are getting here. Woj has a problem with giving up a lot of bombs. In the last two years, at different levels with different teams, here are his HR/9: 2.02, 3.12, 1.49 and 2.02.

The Rays were chalk yesterday and were a bit of a letdown, but don’t let that stop you from loading up again here.

Tanner Roark

If you guys have been rolling with me all season, I have recently been preaching a Tanner Roark implosion coming soon against a lefty-heavy team, especially in Cincinnati. He has been overproducing his peripherals with his actual stats (mainly against lefties). Tonight, he gets the lefty-heavy Brew Crew and I expect them to inflict some damage on Roark.

He has an xFIP of 6.00, ground ball rate of only 26%, WHIP of 1.74, and the x stats on his main pitches against lefties are higher than his actual stats, meaning he is still due for some more regression.

Taylor Clarke

Clarke really struggles with left-handed bats. That is not something you want to do when you face the Dodgers. To lefties, he is allowing 2.6 HR/9, a 1.7 whip, 6.52 xFIP, 39% hard contact and 40% fly balls. The Dodgers at home have mashed almost every righty they have faced this year.

Daniel Mengden

Speaking of regression, enter Daniel Mengden. Last year, Mengden allowed 13% of his fly balls to go for home runs to both sides of the plate. This year, he has allowed 0% of his fly balls to go for homers to lefties and only 5% have gone for homers to righties. Even if you are a really good pitcher, a certain percentage of your fly balls will be homers by default. Now consider the fact that this is a juiced ball era and you have home run to fly ball rates that are simply unsustainable for Mengden.

The Twins are also one of the best hitting teams in the league too, and they are getting healthy again, so this seems like the perfect spot for a double-digit run performance from the Twins.

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