MLB DFS Pitching Preview – Max Scherzer vs Marlins – The Quant Edge

MLB DFS Pitching Preview – Max Scherzer vs Marlins – The Quant Edge

We have another full MLB DFS pitching slate to navigate through. Max Scherzer is at the top against the Marlins, but boy does he cost a lot. Should we pay up for him?

Pitchers to Use

Max Scherzer

If you have a cheaper stack you like, Max Scherzer is the guy to jam in at the top today. He gets the Marlins in Marlins Park and there isn’t a better pitching situation than that. Scherzer has also been on fire recently, striking out 9+ in five of his last six games. He has the second lowest SIERA on the slate and the second best K rate on the slate, only behind Gerrit Cole, but Cole’s matchup is much tougher against the Pirates. I would start here in cash and figure out the bats from there.

Madison Bumgarner

I am not too big of a MadBum guy, but you have to consider him here against the Rockies, who ran out a terrible lineup last night and Pomeranz was able to dominate them to the tune of 5IP, 2ER and 11Ks. He made one bad pitch against Dahl for a two-run homer, otherwise, it would have been a gem.

MadBum is way better than Pomeranz, and this lowly Rockies team outside of Coors and without Story can strikeout a ton against lefties. Four of the eight projected hitters have a K rate over 26% against lefties, with three of them being over 30%. This game is also being played in the pitcher-friendly park in San Fran.

So while MadBum’s 23% K rate and 4.16 SIERA aren’t great, the matchup is.

Jack Flaherty

I will continue to play Flaherty against righty-heavy teams, and we have that again here today against the A’s. Against righties, he is sporting a 32% K rate, a 3.07 xFIP, only 32% fly balls and 33% hard contact. He is also only allowing HR/9 of 1.2 and a whip of 1.03. Long story short, Flaherty dominates righties with good K upside and he should face six of them and the pitcher here today.

Pitchers to Pick On

Glenn Sparkman

Another day picking on Glenn the magician. I have no clue how this guy continuously gets out of trouble, but he does. He will come crashing down to Earth at some point and I want to be on the opposing stack when he does.

Sparkman has an ERA of 3.62, but a SIERA of 5.28 and an xFIP of 5.27. He is also outperforming his career averages at the big league level in BABIP and LOB%, which are two of the main indicators of being lucky.

We want to pick on Glenn with lefties, and the Indians have a ton of them. Glenn is allowing 2.5 HR/9, 5.95 xFIP, only 14% K rate, 43% fly balls and 48% hard contact against left-handed bats. All aboard the Indians train today.

Clayton Richard

Anytime you have a guy who pitches to contact against the Yankees, I have interest. It doesn’t matter to me if he is a heavy ground ball guy or not, as the Yankees make a conscious effort to lift the ball in the air throughout the order. Of their starting nine, only Hicks, Lemahieu and Stanton have a ground ball rate over 41%.

Josh Rogers

Rogers is pegged to be the main long reliever for Baltimore. The Padres have been on fire recently, and they scored 10 runs in their last game on Sunday. They are filled with home run power throughout the order and get a ballpark boost here. I love stacking the Padres when they are facing a guy who pitches to contact. When you have guys with as much power as the Padres do, and they are essentially guaranteed to make contact, you have more home run potential.

Saying Rogers pitches to contact may be an understatement. He has a 9% K rate at the major league level through 12 innings and had a 13% K rate in AAA across 55 innings before being called up. Machado return to Baltimore narrative is in play here as well.

White Sox bullpen

The White Sox bullpen just isn’t very good and the Red Sox get a bullpen game here. The White Sox reliever group as a whole rank 4th worst in the league in SIERA.