MLB DFS Pitching Preview – deGrom or Verlander? – The Quant Edge

MLB DFS Pitching Preview – deGrom or Verlander? – The Quant Edge

We have a decent 13 game MLB DFS Pitching slate to get through on the last Friday before the All-Star break. Should we pay up for deGrom or Verlander?

Pitchers to Use

Jacob deGrom

Even though the Phillies are a decently talented hitting team, they have five hitters with a strikeout rate over 24% against right-handed pitching.

deGrom is rounding into form lately too as he has 8+ Ks in four of his last five starts. The other start was 7ks.

If paying up, you not only want floor, but you want the massive 35 point ceiling and deGrom has that here.

Eduardo Rodriguez

I think ERod could end up being pretty popular here tonight. I am always a little skeptical of using a popular ERod because he will pitch deep into counts and run up his pitch count early in the game.

ERod sports a 4.21 SIERA and a 24% K rate. At his midrange price against a weak Detroit offense, we have to be interested.

Drew Pomeranz

Pom has flashed a high ceiling several times throughout the season. It’s the fact that his bad games have been really bad which have prevented him from having a really good season.

He gets a matchup with a Cardinals team that has scored more than five runs just once in their last 15 games. In that one game, they scored six.

They don’t have Ozuna or Carpenter right now so they are a shell of their normal lineup. Pomeranz has a 4.43 SIERA and a 26% K rate, yet he is priced near the bottom of the barrel on this slate.

Pitching in San Francisco is another big boost for him. Pairing Pom and deGrom is going to be my goal today.

Pitchers to Pick On

Ryan Carpenter

Carpenter is a bad lefty pitching in front of the worst pen in the league and gets to face the Red Sox, who are among the hottest teams in the league. The Sox have hit lefties much better this year than last year and we can load up here. Carpenter is also giving up 2.76 HR/9. Yikes.

Yusei Kikuchi

Kikuchi is a pitch-to-contact guy with a 5.12 SIERA and a 16% K rate facing a team that absolutely destroys left-handed pitching. The A’s possess homerun power throughout the order and they can get to Kikuchi here.

Adrian Sampson

Sampson has been OK his last couple starts, but he is still an arm we want to pick on. Both his SIERA and xFIP are higher than his ERA and he’s a pitch to contact guy with a 19% K rate and 5% walk rate. The Twins will put the ball in play a ton here and they have power throughout the order.

Zach Davies

Davies is a good candidate for regression. He has a 3.24 ERA compared to his 5.09 xFIP and 5.34 SIERA.

Pit is a perfect team to get to Davies as they have scored double-digit runs in four of their last 11 games. They also are loaded with lefties where Davies has given up 1.4 HR/9, 1.5 whip, 5.9 xFIP and 40% fly balls against lefties despite the regression monster still due to attack him.

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