MLB DFS Pitching Preview – A Day to Pay Down – The Quant Edge

MLB DFS Pitching Preview – A Day to Pay Down – The Quant Edge

We have a MLB DFS pitching slate where there are no true aces to pay top dollar for. The guys who are priced up have been solid, but are they worth their high price tag? Let’s find out in today’s MLB DFS Pitching Preview.

Pitchers to Use

Matt Boyd

If paying up today, it would be for Boyd. I think you can get away with pairing the two mid-range arms below, and that is what I would do if playing single entry. However, I wanted to highlight the top arm to pay up for if you like a stack that is cheaper.

Boyd has the best SIERA and K rate on the MLB DFS slate at 3.35 and 30%. The Rangers also have five hitters in their projected starting lineup with a K rate over 27% against left-handed pitching.

Zac Gallen

The matchup isn’t great with the Nats, but Gallen is a talented, young arm and gets the best pitching park in the league.

In AAA this year, across 91 innings, Gallen struck out 34% of the hitters he faced. Give me a talented arm at a mid-range price in a pitcher’s ballpark and I will take a shot on him in a tougher matchup.

Adam Wainwright

This is a matter of playing the splits here. We played Flaherty last night against the righty-heavy A’s. It didn’t work out, but the play was still the correct approach because of Flaherty’s righty dominant splits.

Wainwright has the same exact outlook that Flaherty had last night. Waino dominates righties but tends to really struggle with lefties. To righties, Waino is allowing 0.56 HR/9, 24% K rate, 3.97 xFIP, and a 49% ground ball rate. At his cheap price against a righty-heavy team, he is worth a shot.

Pitchers to Pick On

Wade LeBlanc

Continue to pick on LeBlanc every time he pitches. This is a great spot for the Brew Crew. We mainly want to attack LeBlanc with righties where he is only striking out 14%, allowing 1.8 HR/9, 5.50 xFIP, and only 36% ground ball rate.

Jason Vargas

Vargas has gone from a magician by not allowing runs somehow, to now a boxer wanting to fight beat writers in the clubhouse after games. Let’s see if tonight he can turn into a punching bag for the Phillies to beat up on.

He is due for massive regression soon, and the white-hot Phillies present a great spot for that to happen. His ERA is 3.75 but his SIERA is 5.27 and his xFIP is 5.30. He is a fly ball pitcher allowing 40% hard contact and doesn’t strike many guys out. That is a recipe to stack against.

Dario Agrazal

Dario is being called back up to make a spot start here against a healthy Astros team. This is a terrifying spot for a minor league arm to make. He has allowed 4 ER or more in five of his 13 AAA starts this year and only has 62 Ks in 79 innings. While he does have a high ground ball rate, pitching to contact against the Astros is not ideal. After Dario exits the game, the Pirates have had a pretty bad bullpen as well. This is a great stack spot.

Nick Pivetta

Pivetta seemed to briefly figure things out after being called back up. However, his last two starts have been the old Pivetta that we can stack against. He has allowed 10 ERs, and 5 HRs across 12 innings in his last two starts. The Mets are swinging the bat well recently also.