MLB DFS Pitching Preview: 4/13

MLB DFS Pitching Preview: 4/13

Pitchers to Use

Justin Verlander

Verlander gets a terrible matchup here against the white hot Mariners, but he is the ace of the slate and is the safest arm with the most upside by far. I am going to do my best to jam him in tonight. He is expensive, but he is worth it because there are really only three arms that I would consider using tonight.

If wanting to pay up for bats, you can use the next two guys I am going to mention, but there are enough offenses in great spots tonight that you should be able to find some cheap bats to fit in with Verlander.

Merrill Kelly

Kelly is coming off a stellar outing against the Red Sox in which he struck out nine guys in eight innings. His peripherals suggest that this success can continue as his xSLG sits at a respectable .368 and his xwOBA is .266.

His zone contact rate is just below 80% which is solid and his whiff rate is at 20%. On a normal slate, the whiff rate wouldn’t be something that stands out, but it does here. There is upside for Kelly against the Padres at home, and I think we could see another strong outing from him tonight.

Adam Wainwright

The ballpark isn’t great as this is being played in Mexico which is at high altitude similar to Coors, but the matchup is and Wainwright has held his own to start the year. He has been known less for striking guys out and more for limiting hard contact.

Wainwright sports an xSLG of .357 and an xwOBA of .278, both respectable numbers. Something also encouraging is his whiff rate is up to 27% to start the year. We may be able to luck into a few strikeouts here against a Reds team striking out at 26% to start the year.

Pitchers to Pick On

Everyone Else

This is a terrible slate for pitching outside of the three guys mentioned above. I could sit here and list every single stat for every pitcher left on the slate as to why they are terrible, but to save everyone the time, we can just say every single team not facing the three pitchers above is in play in terms of stacking. Every single game tonight has a total of 9 or higher outside of the Astros/Mariners game and that is because Verlander is pitching.

How I would approach bats on this slate, is to use the ownership projections provided within our optimizer and load up on some of the lower owned stacks. This is because every team is in a great spot and you can’t really pinpoint the ones who are going to explode, because they all could.

If I had to choose a favorite tourney stack right now, I would say the Braves against Vargas as they should go somewhat overlooked with the A’s/Rangers likely taking the top ownership slots, and they have shown the ability to mash lefties.

It is also important to hop in chat closer to lock because as lineups come out, star players may get a day off which could lower the outlook on a team stack and we will discuss that there what effects the lineups have on the slate.