MLB DFS Breakdown | Why Carlos Carrasco is smart cash play and more

MLB DFS Breakdown | Why Carlos Carrasco is smart cash play and more

Make sure you keep a close eye on our MLB weather and line movement tools. If you have any questions, you can always hit me up @chrismeaney. In today’s MLB DFS breakdown, we discuss the best plays for today’s slate, which includes Charlie Morton, Carlos Carrasco and Hyun-jin Ryu.

Milwaukee Brewers (4.7) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (4.4)

Chase Anderson (RHP) @ Joe Musgrove (RHP)

Over/Under: 9 Moneyline: PIT +110

Pitcher Breakdown: Chase Anderson will be making his fifth start of the season tonight and he’s hoping to pitch past the fifth for the first time. Anderson has 27.2 innings on his 2019 resume and he has a decent 3.25 ERA with 29 strikeouts, but he’s walked nine batters in his four starts. He’s been hit hard 42 percent of the time and enters with a 42 percent fly ball rate. He shouldn’t get into too much trouble at PNC Park against the Pirates, but he’s not a high ceiling option.

Joe Musgrove has surrendered 22 runs in his past five starts and he has a shutout mixed in there. Musgrove has given up 51 hits and 28 runs in his 58 innings, and he’s walked 10 batters in his past five outings. He has a solid 46 GB%, but 38 percent hard-hit rate.

Batter Breakdown: Left-handed bats are slashing .291/.333/.445 with a .333 wOBA against Musgrove, so stacking MIL with Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas and Eric Thames may be the way to go. Keston Hiura remains affordable on both sites.

As for the Pirates, Josh Bell is obviously a HR candidate with the way he’s been playing, but Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte have appeal if playing on FD.

*Keep in mind there’s a chance we could see some rain in this game, so maybe stay clear in cash. 

Minnesota Twins (3.6) @ Tampa Bay Rays (4.5)

Martin Perez (LHP) @  Charlie Morton (RHP)

Over/Under: 8 Moneyline: TB -140

Pitcher Breakdown: Both Martin Perez and Charlie Morton have been fantastic this season. Perez has a sparkling 2.95 ERA with 56 punch-outs in 58 innings and he’s rocking a 7-1 record. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in six of his eight starts. The Rays have a league-high 30.2 K% against LHP this season, so I give the edge to Perez, despite how great Morton has been. He has an even better ERA at 2.54 and he has 77 strikeouts over 60.1 innings. Morton comes in with a 5-0 record and has allowed two or fewer runs in nine of his 11 starts.

Batter Breakdown: I feel like the Twins are getting disrespected by Vegas with a low team implied total and they come in as road dogs. I get it, but this is a great opportunity to get some value from a betting standpoint. I’m starting to lean under with Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano sidelined.

Kansas City Royals (4.4) @ Texas Rangers (5.7)

Jake Junis (RHP) @ Mike Minor (LHP)

Over/Under: 10 Moneyline: TEX -156

Pitcher Breakdown: By now, we know all about Jake Junis and what he has to offer, which is hard contact and a lot of home runs. Junis has coughed up 68 hits, 38 runs and 10 homers in 61.1 innings. He’s given up at least three runs in nine of his 11 starts and he’s walked at least two batters in each of his past seven outings. Junis enters with a 42 percent hard-hit rate and 22 percent line drive rate.

Mike Minor checks in with a 2.55 ERA thanks to two or fewer runs in eight of his past 10 starts. The Royals rank 28th with a .276 wOBA vs LHP.

Batter Breakdown: The Rangers should be happy to see a RHP for the first time in six games, despite finally cracking the LHP code over the past couple games. Texas has a 17-8 home record and those eight losses are the fewest in the AL, just behind the Dodgers’ seven home losses. Texas is a strong stack tonight and there’s value with Rougned Odor and Asdrubal Cabrera.

Cleveland Indians (5) @ Chicago White Sox (3.6)

Carlos Carrasco (RHP) @ Manny Banuelos (LHP)

Over/Under: 8.5 Moneyline: CWS +175

Pitcher Breakdown: To say Carlos Carrasco has not looked himself this season would be an understatement. Carrasco does have a solid 72:10 K:BB ratio, but he’s allowed 64 hits, 30 runs and 13 homers in 58.2 innings. He’s given up at least four runs in five of his 11 starts and he’s served up five homers in his past two outings. That said, he has two scoreless outings against the White Sox this season where he fanned 12 over 12 innings, while allowing just the eight hits. That’s good enough for me and I have no problem playing him in cash. You’ll save yourself a bit of cash doing so.

Manny Banuelos has started six games for the White Sox and he’s given up 27 hits, 26 runs, nine homers and 25 walks. Banuelos has allowed 24 runs, eight homers and 11 walks in his last 15 innings.

Batter Breakdown: Cleveland is coming off a three-game series against the Red Sox where they scored 26 runs. Francisco Lindor has pushed his average up to .289 and he’s reached base in 12 of his past 14 games. He has 11 runs over those 14 games. Jose Ramirez doesn’t quite have the same run, but he has back-to-back games with at least two hits for the first time all season. Ramirez is cheap on both sites, especially FD where the same can be said for Lindor. The Indians are stack you can afford.

New York Mets (3.3) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (5.3)

Jason Vargas (LHP) @ Hyun-jin Ryu (LHP)

Over/Under: 8.5 Moneyline: LAD -273

Pitcher Breakdown: Jason Vargas has allowed three or fewer runs in six of his seven starts this season. If you can believe it, he’s given up just the one run in four of his past five starts. Things haven’t been as bad as expected for him, but he doesn’t have an impressive K:BB ratio (23:15 in 29.1 IP). I’m not buying what he’s selling and you shouldn’t either.

I am buying Hyun-jin Ryu, though, especially at home. Ryu has a 1.22 ERA over 37 home innings this season and he had a 1.15 ERA over 54 innings last season. Over his last two seasons at home (91 IP), Ryu has allowed 12 earned runs and seven walks while striking out 98 batters. He’s yet to allow more than two runs in a start this season and he’s only surrendered two runs in his past four outings (38 IP).

Batter Breakdown: The Dodgers’ .264 average and .345 wOBA against southpaws ranks third. There continues to be so much value in the LAD lineup on FD. Enrique HernandezMax Muncy and David Freese are all under priced.

Los Angeles Angels (4.4) @ Seattle Mariners (4.7)

Felix Pena (RHP) @ Yusei Kikuchi (LHP)

Over/Under: Moneyline: SEA -120

Pitcher Breakdown: The Angels have struggled against LHP this season, but Yusei Kikuchi has had his fair share of struggles himself. Kikuchi gave up 10 hits and four runs over five innings to the Angels earlier in the season and he only has 50 punch-outs over 63.2 innings. Over that span, he’s allowed 61 hits and 34 runs, including nine homers. Kikuchi and Flex Pena should be off your radar.

Batter Breakdown: Mike Trout is back and Cesar Puello stays in the lineup. If you’re looking for a punt play.

Left-handed bats have hit Pena hard this season and the Angels’ pitcher continues to allow hard contact (42%) and plenty of fly balls (37%). Dan Vogelbach, Kyle Seager and Edwin Encarnacion should be on home run watch.

In Case You Missed It:

Best Overall Pitcher: Hyun-jin Ryu

Best Value Pitchers: Carlos Carrasco (DK) & Martin Perez (FD)

Pitchers I’m feeling: Carlos Carrasco, Hyun-jin Ryu & Martin Perez

Contrarian GPP options: Martin Perez

Pitchers to fade: Charlie Morton

Best Overall Hitters: Christian Yelich, Josh Bell, Eddie Rosario, Tommy Pham, Whit Merrifield, Elvis Andrus, Francisco Lindor, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Mike Trout & Mitch Haniger

Best value Hitters (DK): Keston Hiura, Jonathan Schoop, Nicky Lopez, Rougned Odor, Jose Ramirez, Enrique Hernandez, Justin Turner, David Freese, Mitch Haniger & Kyle Seager

Best value Hitters (FD): Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Eric Thames, Keston Hiura, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Max Kepler, Jonathan Schoop, Willy Adames, Nicky Lopez, Nomar Mazar, Rougned Odor, Asdrubal Cabrera, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Enrique Hernandez, Justin Turner, David Freese, Max Muncy, Mallex Smith & Kyle Seager

Home Run Call of the Day: Jose Ramirez

Others HR calls to consider: Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Jose Bell, Gregory Polanco, Eddie Roasrio, Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, Shin-Soo Choo, Francisco Lindor, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Mike Trout, Dan Vogelbach & Edwin Encarnacion

Stack ranks: TEX, LAD, MIL & CLE

Underrated stack: MIN & SEA

Bet of the Day: MIL -130

Others to consider: MIN +129, TEX -156 & CLE -190